ALL KEY POLITICAL FACTORS FAVOR GNP CANDIDATE LEE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 003086 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2014 TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KN KS SUBJECT: ALL KEY POLITICAL FACTORS FAVOR GNP CANDIDATE LEE MYUNG-BAK REF: SEOUL 3018 Classified By: CDA Bill Stanton. Reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) Summary: With just 68 days until the presidential election, there is no indication that the liberal camp will be able to overcome Grand National Party (GNP) candidate Lee Myung-bak's lead. (In an October 5 SBS-Hankook Ilbo poll, Lee received 47.6 percent support to 11.3 percent for his closest rival.) Of course once a single liberal candidate emerges, the race will tighten, but the United New Democratic Party (UNDP) primary has attracted little national interest and in one recent poll of liberal voters, 56 percent admitted they expected Lee would win no matter what. Chung Dong-young has a comfortable but shrinking lead over the other UNDP hopefuls, Sohn Hak-kyu and Lee Hae-chan, through the first stages of the primary but since the primary rules continue to change each day, it is impossible to predict who will emerge as the candidate on October 15. Key factors that have helped determine the outcome of past ROK elections -- coalitions, regionalism, nationalism, and anti-U.S. sentiment -- are unlike ly to derail Lee during this election, which instead is focused on Korea's future economic security. End Summary. ¶2. (C) There is a truism in Korean politics that in a Presidential election year, from September until the election in December, the main actors are the candidates. The 2007 election season is different from previous elections in that President Roh has managed to remain on the stage because a liberal candidate has yet to emerge, his administration has been relatively free from scandal, and the North-South summit on October 2-4 boosted his popularity. The 2007 election is also unlike the 2002 election for several other important reasons, all of which bolster GNP Candidate Lee Myung-bak. These are the wane in nationalism and anti-Americanism as political factors, the shift in focus toward future prospects rather than the past grievances and an emphasis on the economy as the key election concern. In addition, political coalitions, or the lack thereof, have been one of the principal determinants the outcome of presidential elections in the past. This year, however the most important coalition will likely not be any union between liberal, independent and NGO forces, but rather of GNP rivals Park Geun-hye and Lee Myung-bak. -------------- KEY FACTORS IN PAST ELECTIONS: COALITIONS -------------- ¶3. (C) After only 20 years of free elections in South Korea, it is hard to single out the most important factor in determining elections, but one stands out: coalitions or the lack thereof. The failure of the two Kims (Kim Dae-jung and Kim Young-sam) to join forces led to Noh Tae-woo's victory in 1987 and Kim Dae-jung's union with Kim Jong-pil - coupled with Rhee In-jae splitting from GNP Candidate Lee Hoi-chang - led to Kim Dae-jung's victory in 1997. Leading up to the 1992 election, Kim Young-sam effectively merged three political parties, captured wide support, and defeated Kim Dae-jung. In 2002, Roh Moo-hyun's dramatic November 26 partnership with independent candidate Chung Mong-joon, based on a poll result, led Roh to victory. GNP COALITION - WILL IT STAY TOGETHER? -------------- ¶4. (C) Arguably the strongest political actors in 2007 are conservative Grand National Party (GNP) Candidate Lee Myung-bak and GNP runner-up Park Geun-hye, followed by President Roh Moo-hyun. Park and Lee individually developed impressive nationwide organizations and political support in the year-long run-up to the GNP primary. Many speculated in fact, that the two would split since they had essentially formed two separate parties before the August 20 primary victory by Lee Myung-bak. ¶5. (C) Their rivalry has not diminished. There is still grumbling in the Park camp because, even though Park "won" the electoral college vote in the primary, Lee secured the nomination thanks to stronger support in the public poll. (The primary was determined 80 percent by electoral college vote and 20 percent by a public poll.) Some of Park's aides also claim she and her followers are not getting the key positions in the Lee election camp they deserve. Nonetheless, most experts in and out of the GNP predict that Park will stay with Lee and work just hard enough to ensure a Lee victory. Many note that since Park (age 55) already left the GNP in 2002 in an attempt to gain the presidency, she must now stay in the party to build for her political future. ¶6. (C) Park's goal during the campaign is therefore not only to ensure a Lee victory, but also to secure control of the party. If Lee maintains his commanding lead, Park will have a difficult time wresting control of the party from lawmaker Lee Jae-oh, Lee's key advisor who is clearly angling to be the next GNP party chair. If Lee stumbles before the election, however, and needs more help from Park, she could use that opportunity to gain control for herself and, just as important, more legislative nominations for her faithful in the April 2008 general election. UNDP COALITIONS - UNLIKELY TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE? -------------- --- ¶7. (C) In the UNDP, many have given up hope that their candidate can win in December. True believers still speculate, however, that an exciting string of possible mergers could boost the eventual UNDP candidate to victory. For example, the Democratic Party nominee (likely Rhee In-jae),independent candidates Moon Kuk-hyun, Myungji University President and prominent Christian Chung Keun-mo, former Prime Minister Lee Su-song, and others would like to merge with the UNDP candidate and win either the promise of a prime ministership or other political gains. Unfortunately for the UNDP, most election experts expect coalition building will likely not be enough to pique voters' interest. ¶8. (C) Since the Uri Party dissolved in June and the UNDP was hastily established a mere two months ago, the UNDP'S organization and discipline remain weak. As a result, many of the usual petty internal political conflicts have become front-page fodder. For example, Lee Hae-chan and Chung Dong-young have offices in the same building and there was a recent public stand-off between the two camps when Lee's staff refused to let Chung's supporters ride in the same elevator. These flare-ups coupled with continued wrangling about primary rules and Sohn Hak-kyu's threats to quit the race have decreased public interest in all these UNDP candidates and also caused more fractures within the party organization (reftel). In addition to its rapid establishment only weeks before the primary began, the UNDP's supreme council includes NGO representatives with little or no political experience. Their participation has generated additional pressure on the party and resulted in a series of public missteps. ¶9. (C) Choi Shee-joong, former owner of Gallup Korea and current senior advisor to Lee Myung-bak, told us recently that current polls showing more than a 30 percent lead for Lee over the nearest liberal candidate were meaningless; the UNDP primary winner could receive up to a 20 percent boost upon claiming the candidacy on October 15 and then another 15-20 percent boost through mergers with other candidates. Choi, an astute election observer and long-time Embassy contact, said he nonetheless remained cautiously optimistic that the UNDP would continue its political follies and therefore would fail to capitalize on the selection of the candidate or any subsequent mergers. -------------- KEY FACTORS IN PAST ELECTIONS: REGIONALISM -------------- ¶10. (C) The liberal UNDP's hopes to win in 2007 are partly based on confidence it can unite the Jeolla and Choongcheong provinces behind a single candidate as the liberal camp did in 1997 and again in 2002. The emergence, however, of Lee Myung-bak as the GNP candidate and Sohn Hak-kyu as a leading UNDP candidate has decreased the likely role of regionalism. Both these candidates draw core support from the capital region (which accounts for 40 percent of the population) rather than a particular province as has been past political practice. The days of economic imbalance among the regions based on who was president and his region of origin have waned. Roh Moo-hyun can take some credit for this because he was able to win the election with the support of the traditional liberal Jeolla vote and also gained significant support from his home base in the North and South Gyeongsang provinces. Ironically, all regions are generally now united in their dislike of Roh, making it harder to rally liberal or centrist supporters around any of the UNDP candidates. Decreased regional disparities have made regionalism less of an emotional issue and less central to how people vote. ¶11. (C) Renowned election expert and professor Kang Won-taek told the Ambassador at a recent lunch that regionalism has been declining as a factor over the last 15-20 years as a result of the consolidation of the democratic system. Most grievances related to the authoritarian regimes of the 1970s and 1980s have been addressed, so now Korea's democracy is more like that of the U.S. and less based on regionalism. In past elections, the pro-democracy, anti-dictatorship leaders used the rallying cry of anti-authoritarianism to unite the voters of the less developed Jeolla Province and built from there (both Kim Dae-jung and Roh used this model effectively). Now, one of the reasons the UNDP was so unpopular and might well lose in December was their failure to find a new vision or message. Candidates relying on regionalism and touting their "true" democratic heritage had drawn little support because most people believed Roh's over-reliance on these ideological themes have done nothing to stimulate or to revive a desultory Korean economy. -------------- KEY FACTORS IN PAST ELECTIONS: NATIONALISM -------------- ¶12. (C) In 2002, with a fourth place finish in the World Cup fresh in voters' minds, Korean nationalism was at a high level. Also, the Korean economy had recovered almost miraculously from the 1997-8 Asian financial crisis. In the summer of 2002, two Korean schoolgirls were accidentally killed by a U.S. military vehicle and the subsequent U.S. military acquittal of the responsible soldiers sparked nationwide outrage. The pride and nationalism of 2002, coupled with a release of built-up resentment toward the U.S., were used effectively by Roh Moo-hyun to win the presidency, as he trumpeted Korean independence and fanned the flames of anti-U.S. sentiment among young voters. There is no such mood now. Many experts note that while the national inferiority complex that Korea has as a recently developed country has not disappeared, Roh's mishandling of the U.S.-ROK relationship and his general diplomatic ineptitude have generated an overall feeling that Korea should pay more attention to its relationship with the U.S. ¶13. (C) In 2002, emotional sentiment against the U.S. arose not for policy reasons but, oddly, because of the Olympics, making the U.S. an easy political target for candidate Roh and many liberal leaders. The 2002 Winter Olympics started to tilt the emotional balance against the U.S. when American Apollo Ohno was awarded a gold medal in short track speed skating after a Korean skater was disqualified for a questionable (to South Korean eyes) foul. This loss was made more famous when Korean soccer star Ahn Joung-whan pretended to skate in his post-goal celebration in the 2002 World Cup game against the U.S. Of course, the USFK vehicle that killed two schoolgirls in June resulted in the greatest public outcry and anger against the U.S., but the sporting events' effect should not be dismissed. ¶14. (C) In 2007, the balance is tilted well in our favor. First and foremost, our shift in tactics toward North Korea is widely interpreted as the U.S. showing South Korea more respect. Moreover, the lack of public outcry in the U.S. against Korea after the horrible killing spree in April by a Korean-American at Virginia Tech amazed many South Koreans and made them see the U.S. in a better light. Most Koreans readily admitted that if a non-Korean had gone on a shooting spree in Korea, there would have been an outcry against that nation and even reprisals against those of the same nationality. The U.S. agreed to transfer wartime operational control to Korea in April 2012, eliminating another issue that could have been used to target the U.S. as an election issue. ¶15. (C) The successful conclusion of the KORUS FTA has also played a positive role that should not be underestimated. Many Koreans see the FTA as a symbol that the U.S.-ROK relationship is evolving in a fundamental way to one that is more equal. This appeals to almost all Koreans. The support for the agreement, signed on June 30, 2007, hovers around 70 percent. -------------- KEY FACTOR NOW: FUTURE ECONOMIC SECURITY -------------- ¶16. (C) Elections from 1992 to 2002 can be seen as largely concerned with addressing past political grievances in Korea. Many assert that Kim Young-sam (1992) and Kim Dae-jung (1997) were elected mostly as a reward for their contributions to the democratization of Korea. Roh ran and won in 2002 on a platform geared to address issues related to the Japanese colonial period and to put Korea's relationship with the U.S. on more equal footing. Democratization is now 20 years in the past. Japan is still an issue that can rile the Korean populace, but calls for looking further into the colonial period through more truth commissions are no longer heard. Most Koreans believe that this year's election is about the economy and the future. Many pundits note that if moral values or past history were of paramount concern, Lee Myung-bak, with his checkered past would never have emerged as the clear front-runner. ¶17. (C) Rather than the past, Lee has successfully given Koreans an attractive vision for the future with his vague promises of renewed economic vigor and his grandiose proposal for a cross-country canal. Most Koreans still feel nostalgic for the double-digit economic growth years of the past. Lee was one of the leaders of that growth as CEO of Hyundai and many hope he can reproduce that same astounding growth for Korea in the years to come. Young people in their 20s and 30s, who were core Roh supporters in 2002, are now concerned first and foremost with job security. Most polls predict Lee will win the youth vote by a wide margin. ¶18. (C) Rather than analyzing Lee's promise of seven percent growth in the context of the modern economy, voters see what Lee did as Seoul Mayor -- uncovering Cheonggye Stream in Central Seoul and revamping the bus system -- and hope he can do the same for the entire country. While the economy continues to chug along at a 4-5 percent growth rate, many in Korea feel that if they do not change their economic plan, they will be "sandwiched" by China and Japan. The vision of a better future favors lee. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶19. (C) The winner of the UNDP primary could challenge Lee Myung-bak if that contender does everything right between now and December and excites voters as Roh did in 2002. For now, there is no indication that he or anyone else in the liberal camp would be ready or able to do this. The year 2007 is a long way from 2002. In dynamic Korea, the changes that have taken place in the last five years favor a conservative candidate in many ways, the most important of which is the widespread view that Roh has failed as president. ¶20. (C) While in 2002, voters wanted any politician who did not represent Korea's authoritarian past and the wealthy elite, this year it appears that voters want anyone who does not represent Roh Moo-hyun and what he stood for. So far, 2007 has been a lucky year for Lee Myung-bak. If his luck holds, he will celebrate his wedding anniversary, December 19, in style. STANTON