DARK HORSE CANDIDATE MOON KUK-HYUN - DOES HE HAVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 003058 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2014 TAGS: KN KS PGOV PREL PINR SUBJECT: DARK HORSE CANDIDATE MOON KUK-HYUN - DOES HE HAVE A CHANCE? Classified By: A/POL Brian Mcfeeters. Reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Dark horse independent candidate Moon Kuk-hyun presented himself as a liberal, pro-business alternative to conservative Grand National Party (GNP) candidate Lee Myung-bak. Speaking comfortably in English and Korean before a packed audience at the Seoul Foreign Correspondents Club on October 10, Moon laid out his strategy and policy goals and -- highlighting his international business experience -- spoke about the need for economic reform using a market-driven approach instead of through government-funded projects that, Moon says, fuel corruption and waste government funds. Moon advocated improving relations and economic cooperation with North Korea but said that denuclearization and normalized U.S.-North Korea relations were a prerequisite. Despite the press interest in Moon's event -- in stark contrast to the poor attendance at recent United New Democratic Party (UNDP) events -- and Moon's mild increase in support ratings (his support ratings typically fall just above 5 percent, although one recent press poll had his support as high as 8.1 percent),he remains unlikely to close the gap in public support and mount a significant threat to Lee Myung-bak. End Summary. -------------- DOING IT MY WAY -------------- ¶2. (C) In prepared English remarks, Moon Kuk-hyun, vowing to have his support rating up to 30 percent by the end of November, said he will launch his own political party in early November to support his bid for the presidency. In order to emphasize that his would be a corruption-free political party, he will not allow current politicians to join for now, though he anticipates politicians from both the GNP and the UNDP will want to join. As a latecomer, Moon recognized that he has many obstacles to face, including insufficient attention from the South Korean media. Nevertheless, Moon anticipated he would gain popularity at the expense of Lee Myung-bak, because people want a business-oriented leader who will create opportunity, protect the environment, and prevent increasing economic disparity. -------------- DEALING WITH NORTH KOREA -------------- ¶3. (C) Moon articulated three principles that, if elected, would drive his presidency: first, creating a permanent peace on the Korea peninsula; second, recognizing that Korea cannot "go it alone" and needs help from the international community; and, third, being proactive. As president Moon vowed to go beyond easing tension between North and South Korea and promote good relations and economic cooperation, but said that normalized U.S.-North Korean ties were an "absolute pre-condition." Even though North and South are the primary players on the Peninsula, South Korea needs to communicate effectively with other countries both in and beyond Asia. Moon said even the U.S. has to have allies, and Korea's efforts to build and strengthen ties with other countries will ultimately improve Seoul's relations with the U.S. ¶4. (C) Moon discussed five policy goals to enable the Korean people to arrive at the final destination of unification: --Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, --Peaceful integration of North Korea into the international community--including normalization of ties with the U.S. and Japan, --Replacement of the 1953 armistice agreement, --Establishment of a regional mechanism for peace in Northeast Asia, --Economic integration between North and South Korea. Once relations are established and economic integration is underway, human rights issues (to include abductions) will naturally be resolved. He said he would advise the Japanese to follow a similar tack in settling their own outstanding issues involving abductees. ¶5. (C) Moon said the North-South Summit was a good idea with some practical proposals beneficial to both sides, and that most of the proposals are viable and make business sense. The North has significant land and labor resources, which are essential in helping South Korean businesses grow. Any plans that do not make business sense -- aside from humanitarian aid -- should be dropped. Moon repeated that denuclearization and normalized U.S.-North Korea relations should be a prerequisite to implementing any of these proposals. -------------- ELIMINATING CORRUPTION -------------- ¶6. (C) Moon said top-down, government controlled business projects, like Lee Myung-bak's cross-Korean canal proposal, tend to lead to corruption, misuse of government funds, and environmentally unfriendly building projects. He said vast sums of money are wasted annually on government-funded building, which has led to sharp increases in real estate prices. Moon said real estate prices in Seoul doubled during Lee's stint as mayor, making it too difficult for many Koreans to afford housing. He warned this increase was not unlike Japan's real estate bubble in the 1980s, which ultimately caused severe problems for the Japanese economy. As president of Korea, Moon vowed to stop top-down, corrupt building projects and instead dedicate the money saved to training high-tech workers, helping small businesses, and funding education reform. -------------- WOMEN FOR MOON -------------- ¶7. (C) On October 9 a number of Korean women's organizations announced their support for Moon, and 1600 women leaders have endorsed Moon, because, Moon claimed, women recognize that mass corruption is part of what disadvantages women; Lee Myung-bak and his cronies are "holding the people hostage." Moon said he has been a longtime advocate for more women in the workplace and has tried to remove glass ceilings. In order to become a competitive, creative society, South Korea must reduce corruption and increase the role of women in society. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) At the October 10 session, Moon compared his knowledge of business to GNP frontrunner Lee Myung-bak, but said that, unlike Lee, Moon was corruption free. More people, disgusted with the possible UNDP candidates, are beginning to support Moon, and with some luck, Moon could emerge as the single liberal candidate. Moon's late entry into the race may temporarily reward him with media attention but for now Moon lacks the strong organization and party support necessary to mount a serious bid in the race. STANTON