URI PARTY: RATS JUMP SHIP; CAN THEY SWIM?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 000287

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL KS
SUBJECT: URI PARTY: RATS JUMP SHIP; CAN THEY SWIM?

REF: SEOUL 167

Classified By: A/POL Brian McFeeters. Reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: Between January 23 and 28, four members of
the Uri Party withdrew from the ruling Uri Party. Before the
February 14 party convention, many others are expected to
follow suit and abandon President Roh's party. With the
withdrawal of National Assemblyman Im Jong-in on January 23,
the exodus from the ruling Uri Party officially began. The
four party-less lawmakers, the most prominent of whom is
former Justice Minister Chun Jung-bae, all hope to form a new
reform-minded party and galvanize the traditional Uri Party
voter base to challenge the GNP in the presidential
elections. Many traditional Uri voters now support one of
the GNP candidates. The Uri Party, now 135 members strong
(out of 296 in the National Assembly) must try to survive or
cease to exist. End Summary

The Departure
--------------


2. (C) Im Jong-in, known as "Little GT" due to his fierce
loyalty to Uri Party Chairman Kim Geun-tae, left the ruling
party in a surprise announcement on January 23. He was
followed on January 25 by reform-minded Reps Choi Jae-cheon
and Lee Kae-an. Choi said that he hoped to lead a "creative
destruction" of the Uri Party and Lee has told several
sources that he hoped to emerge as a presidential candidate
this fall. (Note: Lee ran unsuccessfully in the Uri Party
primary for Mayor of Seoul in 2006. Despite representing a
Seoul district, he received only single digit support and
lost badly to Uri candidate Kang Geum-shil. End Note)
Despite huge daily coverage of the defections, the Uri Party
support has not risen in polls.


3. (C) While Im, Lee and Choi are all respected lawmakers,
their political influence pales in comparison to former
Justice Minister Chun Jung-bae, who withdrew from the party
on January 28. As one of the key architects of the Uri Party
and a former close advisor to President Roh, many accuse him
of shirking his responsibility as a founder to reform the Uri
Party from within. Chun, however, said he must leave in
order to create a new party focused on future-oriented
reform.

Next Wave?
--------------


4. (C) Former Roh stalwart Representative Yum Dong-youn was
the first to declare he would leave the party in early
January, but he has yet to officially depart. In a meeting
with poloff on January 12, Yum spoke as if he was already out
of the party and was optimistic he could generate support for
a new party. Most agree Yum is trying to get more attention
and since he missed being the first to leave, there is no
particular rush for him now to depart. In addition to Yum,
there are several other reform-minded lawmakers who have
indicated they will leave soon. However, more important will
be the decisions by key leaders: former Uri Chairman Chung
Dong-young is believed to control 40-50 lawmakers; and floor
leader Kim Han-gill. Both have indicated they might leave
the party before the February 14 convention taking many other
Uri members with them.

Two Tests: Floor Leader Election and Party Convention
-------------- --------------


5. (C) The small group of about ten lawmakers who will
likely leave, among them Reps. Choi and Chun, will likely not
have an immediate impact on the Uri Party and they do not
expect to form a new party until June. Their goal is to
build support and establish a clear vision over the coming
months. (Reftel A) However, the election of the floor leader
on January 31 and the party convention on February 14 will be
important tests of just how much, if any, organizational
strength remains in the Uri Party.

Floor Leader Election
--------------


6. (C) Two lawmakers are running to replace Kim Han-gill as
floor leader; moderate Lee Mi-kyoung and Kim Geun-tae
loyalist Jang Young-dal. They are both respected lawmakers
and enjoy support within the party. However, if a majority
of lawmakers' votes are not obtained on January 31, neither
would become floor leader. This could occur if, for example,
only 100 of the 135 lawmakers show up to vote. Even if 100
members show up, 68 votes (a majority of the current Uri
total) would be needed for victory. According to Uri
sources, due to lack of internal support, this outcome is
likely and would deal a serious blow to the party and Kim
Han-gill would remain floor leader.

Party Convention February 14
--------------


7. (C) On February 14, at least 6,000 Uri Party members must
get together to elect a new party chairman, decide the date
and format of the presidential party and debate the future of
the party. Most pundits speculate that 6,000 people would be
almost impossible to assemble under previous party
regulations where the 6,000 could be drawn from a limited
pool of eligible delegates. Therefore, the party central
committee agreed on January 29 to expand the pool of eligible
participants in the February 14 convention. The Roh
loyalists opposed the reform, but since the reform will make
the survival of the party more likely, they agreed to go
along.

Looking Toward December: Who Will Be The Candidate(s)?
-------------- --------------


8. (C) Due to the lack of any ruling party candidate with
double digit support, there could be many presidential
hopefuls who emerge in the next few months on the non-GNP
ticket or tickets, from lawmakers (Chun Jung-bae, Lee Kae-an,
Kim Geun-tae) to former lawmakers (Chung Dong-young) to
outside hopefuls (Seoul National Professor Chung Un-chan,
Lawyer and NGO leader Park Won-soon). Chung Un-chan, former
Seoul National University President and possible reform
candidate for president, told poloff on January 30 that
neither Chun, GT nor Chung Dong-young (DY) have any chance
for victory since they were the founding members of the Uri
Party.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) According to most pundits and Assembly sources, the
recent defections coupled with single digit popularity spell
the end of the Uri Party before the December 19 presidential
elections. With new party regulations, the party could avoid
complete dissolution until the late spring or early summer,
when new, non-GNP party(s) need to coalesce in order to have
time to build support and organization before the official
primary season begins in August or September. President Roh
has tried to maintain control of the party by offering to
leave the party, and he may well leave, but it appears he has
no influence on the Uri members. As each Uri lawmaker
decides whether to stay or leave, he or she is betting not
just on the presidential elections, but also how to best
position themselves for the April, 2008 Assembly elections,
where all seats will be up for grabs. For now, four
lawmakers have taken a bold first step - how far their
initiative will take them remains to be seen.
VERSHBOW