UNDP PRE-PRIMARY: WORKING FROM NINE TO FIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 002713

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2014
TAGS: KN KS PGOV PREL PINR
SUBJECT: UNDP PRE-PRIMARY: WORKING FROM NINE TO FIVE


Classified By: A/DCM Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In an attempt to generate interest in the
fledgling liberal United New Democratic Party (UNDP) and to
reduce the number of candidates, the successor to the Uri
Party conducted a pre-primary to pare down the number of
candidates from nine to five over September 3-5. The five
winners are: former Gyeonggi Governor Sohn Hak-kyu, former
PMs Han Myeong-sook and Lee Hae-chan, former Unification
Minister Chung Dong-young (DY),and former Health and Welfare
Minister Rhyu Si-min. The contest was based on phone polling
of the general public (50 percent) and members of the party's
Electoral College (50 percent). The UNDP must still finalize
rules for the primary, set to take place September 15-October
14, and still has a long way to go to gain support for a
single candidate who could compete with the frontrunner,
GNP's Lee Myung-bak on December 19. END SUMMARY

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WORKING FROM NINE TO FIVE
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2. (U) The one-month-old party, almost entirely made up of
former Uri Party followers, on September 3-5 conducted
"cut-off" polls of the general public and members of the
Electoral College to narrow the field of candidates from nine
to five. Pollsters in the first survey screened potential
respondents to make sure that they did not support the GNP,
and then asked whom of the nine candidates they supported,
until they reached their goal of 2,400 respondents. The
second poll was of 10,000 UNDP party members -- 7,000 who
joined the UNDP as well as 3,000 former Uri Party members who
inherited membership in the new party.


3. (C) Only 4,174 of the 10,000 registered delegates were
found to be valid as announced by the vice chair of the
party's primary committee but there will likely be no protest
since none of the eliminated candidates have a strong
following. The five remaining candidates received the
following support: Sohn Hak-kyu (24.75 percent) , Chung
Dong-young (24.46 percent),Lee Hae-chan (14.37 percent),
Rhyu Si-min (10.14 percent),and Han Myeong-sook (9.42
percent). Of the losers, former Uri Party Chairman Shin
Ki-nam reportedly will support Lee Hae-chan and former
Justice Minister Chun Jung-bae will support former
Yuhan-Kimberly CEO and independent candidate Moon Kuk-hyun.
The victorious five will stage a nationwide primary from
September 15 through October 14.

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UNDP PRIMARY DYNAMICS MIRROR GNP'S
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4. (C) As the prospective GNP candidates did before the GNP
finalized its primary (held August 19-20) rules, UNDP
candidates are also pushing for advantages in the primary and
have yet to settle their differences. The candidates have
agreed to a consecutive, touring primary format that starts
in Jeju, works its way to Seoul, and allows anyone to vote as
long as they meet the September 10 registration deadline and
promise not to support another party. The group will tour 16
cities nationwide and there will be a series of weekend
votes.


5. (C) The major point of controversy is over whether to
allow polling to supplement the voting as was the case in the
GNP primary. Sohn has consistently led the other progressive
candidates in public polls and wants to include them in the
primary. Lee Hae-chan reportedly supports the idea as well.
Chung Dong-young and Rhyu Si-min are against polls, because
they have lower popularity and greater internal party
support. Kim Sang-il, a long-time Chung Dong-young aide,
explained to poloff that polling used in a primary, including
the use of cellphones to cast votes, violated the democratic
principle of ballot secrecy because the voter's choice could
be traced back to them. Kim said that polling would be
redundant: since the primary electorate could be as large as
two million, the voting would already be open to everyone who
wanted to take part. Although Kim said that Chung Dong-young
was against the polling, he admitted that there was more
flexibility in allowing voters to use cellphones in choosing
their candidate. Preliminary rules show that mobile phone
and internet voters must register September 17-October 6, and
will be able to vote October 10 through 13. Rules for the
primary will be finalized during the week of September 10.

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ANTI-ROH: SOHN HAK-KYU AND CHUNG DONG-YOUNG
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6. (C) Some pundits noted that Sohn Hak-kyu was losing
momentum in part because of "mistakes" he has made in
previous speeches and the consistent attacks by all other
UNDP candidates. Sohn has been criticized for his August 3
call to "shake off the Gwangju incident" referring to a May
1980 incident during which pro-democracy protestors were
killed, and for his August 16 statement about "being able to
absorb GNP voters." Despite these faux pas, Sohn boasted
double digit approval ratings for the first time in a
"Joongang Ilbo" newspaper sponsored poll conducted on August
29 and still leads the other UNDP candidates by a wide margin
in all polls. His Oxford education and pro-democratization
activities in the 70s gives him an elitist, "true democrat"
image, but is tempered by what is being called his "Achilles
heel" -- his fifteen-year-long affiliation with the
conservative GNP.


7. (C) Chung Dong-young Advisor Kim Sang-il told poloff that
the source of Chung Dong-young's popularity within the party
was that he was viewed as a traditional political leader.
Despite his strengths, the same advisor reported Chung
Dong-young's guarded optimism about his prospects for
becoming president. Some pundits note that Chung Dong-young
has a clean image and his poor childhood and background as an
MBC TV anchor make him a popular choice for many. However,
many also note that Chung Dong-young served in the Roh
Administration, but ended up as an arch-enemy of the Blue
House. They also argue that his home Honam Province works to
his disadvantage on the national stage. Chung has been
written off before, but the strong party support in the
pre-primary attests to his well-organized support network.

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PRO-ROH CANDIDATES: LEE, RHYU AND HAN
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8. (C) Pro-Roh candidates Lee Hae-chan, Rhyu Si-min, and Han
Myeong-sook all trailed Sohn and Chung Dong-young in the
pre-primary by double digit margins. Probably not
coincidentally, they are also closer to the widely unpopular
president. Lee and Han are former prime ministers while Rhyu
is a former health minister. Blue House aides and officials
are confident that Lee Hae-chan will emerge as the UNDP
candidate and many expect him to absorb Rhyu and Han's
support base as the primary progresses. His stand-offish
manner and past golf-related mistakes seem to indicate he
will have a hard time gaining the candidacy, but if the few
die-hard Roh supporters that remain unite, he could be
difficult for Chung Dong-young and Sohn to beat.

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PREISDENTIAL SUPPORT
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9. (C) Former President Kim Dae-jung (DJ) remains an
influential elder statesman who has yet to publicly endorse
any of the progressive candidates. His close aides told
poloff that DJ would fully support any candidate who emerged.
President Roh has expressed displeasure with Chung
Dong-young and Sohn, but has conceded that he would support
the anti-GNP candidate, whoever that might be. One Blue
House contact told poloff that Roh would support Sohn if he
publicly apologized for his actions as a GNP politician and
speculated that Sohn might do that if he thought Roh's
endorsement was necessary. Kim Hyun, a former Blue House
official and now key advisor for Lee Hae-chan, told poloff
that she was confidant that DJ and Roh would support Lee
because his policies were the closest to theirs.

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SUMMIT LIABILITY
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10. (C) Pundits are divided on whether the planned October
2-4 North-South summit will help the eventual UNDP candidate.
Positive effects could include the solidification of a core
of "peace" supporters, reinforcement of the merits of
engagement with the North and justification of ten years of
DJ-Roh North Korea policies. Those could be offset however,
by the public's perception that Roh was guilty of blatant
"summit electioneering." In case of a "photo-op summit," the
public could be left with unfulfilled expectations which
could work against the progressives. Some GNP officials have
told poloff that the summit could cost Lee the election, but
most expect the summit will have minimal effect on the
outcome in December.

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COMMENT
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11. (C) The UNDP primary will likely be a down-to-the-wire
affair as the candidates are desperate to try anything to not
only win the candidacy, but gain some ground on Lee
Myung-bak, the GNP candidate. Currently, Lee enjoys a large
double-digit lead over all other contenders. Two of the
pro-Roh candidates may decide to back the third and this
could make the possibility of a pro-Roh UNDP candidate
victory somewhat higher. A close primary in the UNDP could
also draw more interest from the public, but currently the
one-month old party enjoys very anemic, single-digit support.
Clearly, all UNDP candidates face a long uphill struggle in
their quest for the Blue House.
VERSHBOW