GNP DECISION TIME APPROACHES: LEE MYUNG-BAK IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 002471

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2014
TAGS: KN KS PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: GNP DECISION TIME APPROACHES: LEE MYUNG-BAK IN
DRIVER'S SEAT


Classified By: A/DCM Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: On August 19, the opposition Grand National
Party (GNP) will hold its primary in polling booths
throughout the country. Polls show a significant lead for
front-runner Lee Myung-bak -- anywhere from 5 to 12 percent
-- and while the number of undecided voters is still high and
there are factors that could still swing the election to Park
Geun-hye, most experts pick Lee to win the GNP race. Park
has made a strong push in recent weeks and her overall
popularity party support has increased, but most experts
predict that her efforts will prove too little, too late.


2. (C) The GNP primary has been marked by mudslinging by
both leading candidates, more so than in the past as many
expect the winner of the GNP candidacy to win the general
election. The primary has marked a move away from the
closed-door selection process of the past to a semi-open
primary system that allows participation of a total of
roughly 200,000 people (NOTE: The GNP primary electorate is
made up as follows: 46,197 Senior GNP members, 69,496 GNP
party members, 69,496 non-member voters, and 46,196
randomly-selected eligible voters who will be polled by
phone. END NOTE). Also, for the first time, the GNP held a
series of policy debates. Mudslinging and sensational claims
got more attention than the policy debates -- Lee Myung-bak
even underwent a DNA test to prove he was not Japanese and
Park Geun-hye offered to undergo a test to prove she did not
give birth to a love-child of a scandal-ridden minister. For
the GNP candidate to win in December, whatever the outcome on
August 19, the challenge is for the GNP faithful to unite
behind one candidate, something that has not always happened.

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PARK GEUN-HYE POSITION
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3. (C) Park Geun-hye's spokesman, lawmaker Kim Jae-won, told
poloff on August 17 that Park would likely win the GNP
candidacy by 2-3 percent. He attributed his partisan
prediction to concern among GNP faithfuls that Lee Myung-bak
was not electable due to his scandal-filled past. On August
16, Park's camp conducted a survey of 2,000 people from the
primary electorate that reflected a slight lead for Park.
Other Park advisors emphasized that Park's overall support
was on the rise and Lee's support was decreasing. While they
admitted that Lee has a lead among senior GNP members and in
the public poll, they noted that each account for only 20
percent of the primary electorate. However, they emphasized
that Park has a lead among GNP party members and the civil
electorate, and that these groups are more heavily weighted,
each accounting for 30 percent of the electorate. Also, Park
supporters are more likely to vote on August 19, another
reason Park's camp is hopeful. According to advisor Walter
Paik, over 80 percent of the citizen electorate is over age
45 and overall Park has the strongest support with the
elderly who remember her father, former President Park
Chung-hee, fondly. He also said Park's success hinged on the
weather -- it should be either very nice weather or very
rainy to keep the younger voters, who strongly favor Lee,
away from the polls.

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LEE MYUNG-BAK POSITION
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4. (C) Lee spokesperson, lawmaker Park Hyung-joon, told
poloff that Lee would likely win by a 10 percent margin on
Sunday. Dismissing concerns that a higher percentage of
Park's supporters might turn out to vote, he said that the
Lee camp would make sure its supporters voted on August 19.
Park also emphasized that all the accusations of illegal land
speculation had proved groundless, and that they would not be
a factor in the general election. Lee's foreign policy
advisor Dr. Yim Song-bin told poloff that the camp was in
good spirits and that he would soon start further
preparations for Lee to visit Russia, China and the U.S.
after the nomination was secured.

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WON HEE-RYONG
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5. (C) Third-place GNP candidate Won Hee-ryong told poloff
on August 17 that he expected Lee Myung-bak to win the GNP
primary due to Lee's strong organization, party support, and
strong person-to-person campaigning ability. Before the
prosecutor's office released information about Lee
Myung-bak's real estate problems, Lee enjoyed a solid 10
percent lead. Due to the latest controversy, Won asserted,
Lee would win by less than 10 percent, but still had strong
enough support to overcome the recent scandals. Won worried
that Park Geun-hye supporters would initially accept Lee's
candidacy, but later demand Lee step down as the GNP
candidate if more information was uncovered by the
prosecutor's office.


6. (C) Won said he hoped to garner five percent support, but
acknowledged it would be difficult. Whatever the outcome,
Won said, he would campaign for the eventual candidate to
show the Korean people, "how politics should be." Won has no
chance in 2007, but he has earned some name recognition that
will likely help him as he goes for re-election in the
National Assembly in 2008 and aims for higher office in the
future.

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INDEPENDENT VIEW
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7. (C) Park Jin, a leading second-term lawmaker, currently
the Vice Chairman of the Primary Committee, a neutral
position, told poloff on August 17 that Lee would win by five
to eight percent. While some note that the undecided could
swing the vote for Park Geun-hye, Park Jin stated that those
undecided would either not vote, or, if they did, that they
would split evenly between Lee and Park. Due to the latest
real estate scandals, the gap between the two candidates has
narrowed but, Park asserted, as long as there was not another
scandal before the vote, Lee would be the next GNP candidate.


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EXPERTS WEIGH IN
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8. (C) Leading political analyst Park Song-min told poloff
that Lee Myung-bak would win the GNP candidacy by around five
percent. He noted that he had talked this week to all major
polling companies' directors and none of them predicted Park
could win on August 19. Particularly important was the gap
among the senior GNP members who are strongly for Lee. The
senior delegates are made up of National Assembly members and
their chosen delegates. Park said that a large majority of
lawmakers had firmly decided to support Lee and they could
not change course this late in the campaign. Also, Park
said, those who supported Lee would not change their mind due
to the recent real estate scandals and therefore, even if
more information came out over the weekend, it would not be
enough to sway Lee's supporters -- rather it might increase
their likelihood of voting.


9. (C) As an aside, Park noted that the recent resignation
of the Justice Minister Kim Sung-ho was likely tied to the
investigation of Lee Myung-bak's past real estate deals.
Park said that the former Minister told the prosecutor's
office that their investigation was too political and they
should not release information on a case from over 10 years
ago right before the election. Supposedly, this led to his
dismissal by President Roh and the subsequent release of
information implicating Lee's older brother in questionable
land dealings in the 80s and 90s.


10. (C) Renowned liberal political scientist Kang Won-taek
told poloff on August 17 he expected Lee Myung-bak would be
the GNP candidate, noting that Lee's 10 percent lead in a
August 13 poll was too much to overcome in the final days.
However, he raised two concerns for the GNP candidate,
whoever it might be. First, the real estate problems that
have dominated the headlines for the past few days will not
be enough to affect the primary, but, he noted, they could
continue to haunt Lee in the December general election. He
also pointed to the concern that the GNP might not unite
behind one candidate as was hinted at in an August 16 poll in
the "Joongang Ilbo" newspaper where 58.9 percent of Lee
supporters responded they would not vote for Park in the

general election and 48.9 percent of Park supporters would
not support Lee.


11. (C) Also, Kang said the scheduled August 28-30
North-South summit could change the campaign dynamic by
introducing peace as a key election issue. While the summit
itself would not give a huge boost to any liberal candidate,
if the focus of the campaign shifted from its current
preoccupation with the economy to a "peace mood," it could
give the progressive candidate a chance in the general
election.

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POLLS
--------------


12. (U) One poll of the GNP's delegates, member and civil
electors conducted on August 13-14 by Media Research had Lee
Myung-bak with an overall lead of 7.3 percent. An August 17
"Hankyoreh Shinmun" newspaper poll of public support only
showed Lee's lead had shrunk to 5.7 percent, the lowest
recorded to date and much less than the 11.7 percent lead on
August 13, just before the prosecutor's announcement. The
paper noted that if there was no more negative information
from the prosecutor's office, the lead could again widen.

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COMMENT
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13. (C) The GNP race is well within former Mayor Lee
Myung-bak's grasp. His lead is probably insurmountable.
Lee, however, will emerge victorious with a divided party
and, even worse, a tattered reputation. Also, he will have
very little time to bask in the glory as South Koreans now
concentrate on the next event -- the North-South summit.
Still, given the disarray in the ruling camp and the
continued low approval for the Roh government, the Blue House
is Lee Myung-bak's to lose.

STANTON