ROK-DPRK SUMMIT: PROGRESSIVE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 002457 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/16/2017 TAGS: KN KS PGOV PREL ECON EINV SUBJECT: ROK-DPRK SUMMIT: PROGRESSIVE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY MEMBERS BULLISH Classified By: POL M/C Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b/d) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Progressive National Assembly members Lee Hwa-young and Kim Chong-ryul told poloffs on August 16 that President Roh Moo-hyun will emphasize strengthening economic ties during the August 28-30 summit with Kim Jong-il because he sees denuclearization as best handled through the Six-Party Talks. Kim Jong-il would likely make an oral statement in support of denuclearization, but a joint statement from the summit, if there is one, would not mention denuclearization. In the economic area, the leaders are likely to emphasize joint development of sand and mineral resources near the Han River estuary west of Seoul, which could in turn be used to finance improvement of the 200-kilometer highway from Kaesong to Pyongyang; other investment projects are expected to be discussed under the heading of "social overhead capital." Representative Lee, who travels to North Korea frequently, said that young North Korean officials, notably Vice Chairman of the DPRK's Asia Pacific Peace Committee Choi Seung-chul, talk openly about the need to change the DPRK system, looking at Russian, Chinese and ROK models. Lee said that the DPRK decided in late May to accept the ROK's summit offer. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Bio Note: Lee Hwa-young is from Gangwon Province and represents the Joongryang A District in Seoul. He is particularly close to Roh Moo-hyun and a leading "386" lawmaker. Kim Chong-ryul is from North Choongchong Province and represents his home district. They are both first-term Uri Party representatives in their 40s who will join the United New Democrat Party (UNDP) when the Uri Party merges with the UNDP on August 20. Both are supporters of presidential hopeful and former Prime Minister Lee Hae-chan, known to be closely involved with setting up the summit. Both legislators frequently travel to North Korea. Lee and Kim said that they participated in summit-preparatory meetings this week with President Roh and Lee Hae-chan. -------------- Summit's Economic Focus -------------- ¶3. (C) Lee said that President Roh, while he recognizes the importance of the denuclearization issue, sees the summit primarily as a chance to strengthen economic ties with the North, while counting on the Six-Party Talks to do the heavy lifting on denuclearization; this tracks with President Roh's August 15 National Day speech, during which Roh emphasized repeatedly the importance of economic ties between the two Koreas. At the same time, the ROKG expects Kim Jong-il to voice support for denuclearization during the summit, though denuclearization will not be mentioned in a joint statement at the end of the summit, if there is one. The representatives said that DPRK officials were interested in getting additional economic projects started now in case a less-engagement-minded GNP government succeeds the Roh administration. When poloffs asked if the DPRK was serious about denuclearization, Lee noted that DPRK Chairman of the Presidium Kim Yong-nam had told former PM Lee Hae-chan during a recent meeting that he understood the U.S. position on the nuclear issue and that the DPRK was committed to a nuclear-free Peninsula. ¶4. (C) Lee and Kim said that the economic-cooperation portion of the summit agenda remained somewhat flexible, but that they expected the focus to be on joint development of mineral (sand and rock for construction) and other resources in Hwanghae-Namdo province, northwest of Seoul along the Han River estuary. The two were very excited about the potential for the sand and rock, saying there was enough in the zone for 30 years of construction. It was likely that proceeds (valued up to 30 billion USD according to Kim) from these resources could be used to fund improvement of infrastructure in the North, including the 200 km highway between Kaesong and Pyongyang (the road President Roh's delegation will travel on). Lee said such an economic project would follow the "action-for-action" model: as resources flow to the South in exchange for infrastructure improvements in the North. Lee said other projects already in the pipeline included various boat and train connections with North Korea that could connect with the Trans-Siberian Railway. Kim suggested talks on these projects would occur in October. ¶5. (C) Asked about press reports that the ROKG would also agree to help North Korea develop industrial parks in Nampo and Sinuiju on the DPRK's west coast and Wonsan and Rajin on the east coast, Lee said that there would likely be preliminary discussion of such projects, noting that such economic ties were in the ROK's interest because North Korean labor was one-fourth the cost of Chinese labor. Lee noted that the North will likely ask for projects that not only use cheap North Korean labor, but also invest in the North Korean economy. Kim noted that President Roh could not approach the summit with a blank check, since according to a recently passed law, the National Assembly would have to approve funds. But the North's needs were clearly extensive, including large sections of Pyongyang where buildings and roads needed to be replaced -- even before the current flooding. Lee and Kim viewed a follow-on visit by Kim Jong-il to the ROK as unlikely before the December election, but said that a goal of the summit is to regularize such meetings. ¶6. (C) As an aside, Lee said that the ROKG would seek U.S. approval to provide needed computer and other equipment to the North for the KIC, saying this was a sensitive area for North Koreans. They mentioned several times that without the ability to send computers North, none of the economic projects could amount to much and that was why it was so important for North Korea to be de-listed from the Trading with the Enemy Act. Noting press reports that the USG may provide flood-related assistance to North Korea, Lee said the DPRK would regard such assistance very favorably. -------------- OTHER PROGRESSIVES CONCUR -------------- ¶7. (C) In a separate discussion on August 16, Uri Party Floor Leader Chang Young-dal noted the Summit would carefully compartmentalize "denuclearization" and "prosperity" issues, the latter designed to create a positive atmosphere for more rapid progress in the former within the Six-Party Talks. Chang highlighted proposals to expand the Kaesong Industrial Complex into Hwanghae Province as well as create a Joint Fishing Zone off its western coast to ease tensions along the Northern Limit Line. Similarly, Senior Secretary to former President Kim Dae-jung reeled off the same list of possible economic projects as above, adding only that the meetings should also discuss a peace regime for the Korean peninsula. -------------- Perspectives on North Korean Attitudes -------------- ¶8. (C) Lee and Kim made a point of praising Choi Seung-chul, Vice Chairman of the DPRK's Asia Pacific Peace Committee, calling him dynamic and open-minded, and stating that Choi has direct access to Kim Jong-il and has been active in summit planning. They contrasted him with Kim Jong-il's military confidants, mostly in their 70s and not open to new ideas. They explained that the Kim Gye-kwan line and the Choi line were both open to change and the two teams worked well together. Thanks to their like-minded coordination, the old guard had lost sway with Kim Jong-il. Lee said that not only Choi, but other younger DPRK officials he had talked with on trips were open about what they saw as the need to change the DPRK system, looking at Russia, China and the ROK as examples. He added that some DPRK officials still expressed fears of an attack from the U.S. and were keen to hear about latest developments in the U.S. ¶9. (C) Asked whether they saw the North Korean side as ready for a sea-change in relations with the South, given reports about their constructive attitude in preparing for the summit, Lee said that he saw the near-term focus of the DPRK on securing economic assistance. The broad question about what to do about the DPRK government and economic system was being asked, but the DPRK leadership had not yet decided to open up. -------------- Deliverables -------------- ¶10. (C) Lee said that the summit was unlikely to make progress on the issue of South Korean abductees, estimated at about 480, since it was such a sensitive issue. He noted that, while the DPRK has never officially acknowledged holding abductees, DPRK interlocutors have acknowledged that there are abductees when meeting South Korean counterparts unofficially. On a brighter note, the two agreed that the summit could increase the frequency of family reunions, where thousands of families remain on waiting lists as their relatives age. ¶11. (C) Lee said there would likely be a permanent hotline established between Seoul and Pyongyang. In addition to the sand for construction, digging in the joint development area in Hwanghae-Namdo province would eventually open up a Seoul-Kaesong waterway that was used during the Koryo Dynasty (11th-14th centuries). Eventually, the area would be termed a "Peace Area" and be opened for tourism, casinos and other projects. Also, Lee said the DPRK might offer to return the USS Pueblo. ¶12. (C) Asked whether there was concern that President Roh would be seen as offering economic benefits to the North while getting little concrete in return, Lee said that progressives disagreed with what he called the opposition Grand National Party's reciprocity-based North Korea policy. Instead, the progressive side was opting to approach North Korea emphasizing trust, because the disparity between the two Koreas' state of economic development meant that insisting on reciprocity would only hold up progress. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶13. (C) Lee and Kim are frequent visitors to North Korea and Lee particularly has made headlines for his frequent trips and his tendency to leak juicy tidbits to the press. Both are close to President Roh and involved in summit preparations with their "boss" Lee Hae-chan. Hence, their description of the summit probably tracks closely with what President Roh and Lee Hae-chan have in mind. The success of the summit and development of further inter-Korean cooperation are crucial if their patron, Lee Hae-chan, who is given credit for helping to prepare the summit, hopes to beat out the many other liberal presidential hopefuls. STANTON