NEW LIBERAL PARTY: UNDP NOT QUITE UNITED

UNCLAS SEOUL 002356 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KN KS PGOV PREL SUBJECT: NEW LIBERAL PARTY: UNDP NOT QUITE UNITED REF: A. SEOUL 02047 ¶B. SEOUL 01684 ¶1. SUMMARY (SBU) In pursuit of a grand coalition of the liberals, defectors from the ruling Uri Party and the Moderate United Democrats (MUD) launched the new progressive party "United New Democratic Party (UNDP)" on August 5. With eighty-five lawmakers, the new party emerged as the second largest in the Assembly. However, mired in factional feuds, the new party faces an uphill battle to create a true coalition. Only three liberal candidates -- Sohn Hak-kyu, Chung Dong-young and Chun Jung-bae -- joined the new party as other candidates from the Uri Party and the MUD refused to join. The failure to draw in all factions to the new coalition party means that the primary in the liberal camp will likely be conducted in three different "leagues," namely, three separate primary elections could select separate candidates to represent the UNDP, the MUD, and the pro-Roh Uri party. All groups acknowledge they must coalesce behind one candidate, but this latest half-way attempt at a coalition makes the process more, not less difficult. END SUMMARY. -------------- NEW COALITION PARTY FORMS -------------- ¶2. (U) On August 5, eighty-five lawmakers, who defected from the pro-government Uri Party and the Moderate United Democrats (MUD),launched a new party "United New Democratic Party (UNDP)." Their foremost goal is to achieve a grand coalition of liberal forces, from inside and out of politics, to field a competitive candidate for December's presidential election. About 6,000 party members, including liberal presidential hopefuls Sohn Hak-kyu, Chung Dong-young and Chun Jung-bae, attended the inaugural convention held at the Olympic gym in southern Seoul. Neither the Uri nor MUD's main hopefuls joined -- Uri Party's lead candidates, former Prime Ministers Han Myeong-sook and Lee Hae-chan were notably absent. Reverend Oh Choong-il, an NGO leader, was named as the new coalition party's chairman. ¶3. (U) The 85-member UNDP now is the second largest in the 299-member National Assembly behind the main opposition Grand National Party (GNP) with 128 seats but ahead of the Uri Party with 58 seats. The UNDP lawmakers consist of three groups: (1) Sixty-one recent defectors from the Uri Party; (2) The so-called Kim Han-gill group of nineteen lawmakers who defected from the Uri Party in February, and thereafter 
merged with the Democratic Party (DP) into MUD, and finally left MUD to join UNDP; (3) five lawmakers who were members of the DP, and later the MUD, and defected from the MUD to UNDP. -------------- -------------- MIRED IN FACTIONAL FEUDS, FACING A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD -------------- -------------- ¶4. (U) Despite the fanfare, UNDP has a long way to go to reach its grand goal of "integrating all liberal forces and producing a single candidate for the presidential election." Within and outside of the party, factional feuds are rife. The Uri Party and the DP failed to join UNDP in spite of the July 4 agreement among six progressive presidential hopefuls brokered by former candidate Kim Geun-tae. At that time, Sohn Hak-kyu, Chung Dong-young, Lee Hae-chan, Han Myeong-sook, Kim Hyuk-kyu, and Chun Jung-bae all pledged to form a united party and stand behind a single presidential candidate. However, six Uri Party candidates, including Han Myeong-sook and Lee Hae-chan, did not attend the UNDP event, citing the new party's reluctance to align with presidential hopefuls close to President Roh Moo-hyun. MUD members formerly of the DP also refused to join the UNDP, demanding that any grand coalition exclude Roh loyalists. Park Sang-chun, who was co-representative of the MUD and a longtime member of DP, continues to label Roh Moo-hyun as a "traitor" who broke up the DP by creating the Uri Party. Reflecting the factional friction within the UNDP, seats of the UNDP Supreme Council have been allocated to each faction. Rep. Lee Mi-kyung represents recent defectors from the Uri Party; Rep. Cho Il-hyun represents the Kim Han-gil splinter group; former Rep. Chung Kyung-hwan represents the DP group; and Kim Sang-hee and Yang Kil-seung represent the NGOs and civic groups. -------------- SOHN - A TRUE LIBERAL? -------------- ¶5. (U) Meanwhile, Sohn Hak-kyu, the frontrunner on the liberal side with 6.2 percent support in an August 5 Hankyoreh poll, faces increasing attacks and competition from his rivals within his party. As a former member of the GNP, he is attempting to portray himself as a legitimate liberal candidate. At the August 5 UNDP inaugural convention, Sohn Hak-kyu, Chung Dong-young and Chun Jung-bae all stressed the importance of "inheriting the spirit of Gwangju (May 18 Uprising)." Sohn stressed it in particular, trying to overcome the backlash he caused after saying on August 3 that "the nation should not be stuck in the spirit of Gwangju anymore." Chun and Chung attacked Sohn and emphasized their legitimacy as progressive candidates. -------------- UNDP - FUTURE NOT SO BRIGHT? -------------- ¶6. (U) There are also signs that liberal supporters are drawing away from the new party and its leading candidate, Sohn Hak-kyu. In an August 5 poll by Hankyoreh, a liberal Korean daily, Chough Soon-hyung garnered support from 9.1 percent of the liberal voters, an unexpectedly high rate. Although far behind Sohn's popularity rating of 24 percent, pundits see Chough's popularity reflecting the voters' doubts about Sohn's new party. Regarding the UNDP, only 8.1 percent said they would support it, while 35.3 percent said they would not. More than half, 54.4 percent, responded that they do not know. 36.7 percent of the surveyed saw Park Sang-chun's decision not to merge DP into the UNDP in a positive light. ¶7. (U) On August 6, the UNDP elected Rep. Kim Hyo-seuk, a two-term lawmaker formerly affiliated with MUD and before that the floor leader of the DP, as its floor leader and will now register as a floor negotiation group. The new party will elect its presidential candidate through a primary starting in September. The "open primary" will allow all comers to vote. As the Uri Party and the MUD show no sign of backing down and joining the UNDP, the primary in the progressive camp will likely have to be conducted in three different "leagues," namely, the new party, the MUD, and the remaining Uri party. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The progressive forces are in disarray. Even after some "coalesced" to form the UNDP, they are not much closer to fielding a unified candidate than before, because key constituents in this camp, in cluding Roh Moo-hyun supporters and politicians associated with the fomer DP, were absent. With the December elections fast approaching, the goal for all three progressive groups -- the Uri, UNDP and MUD -- remains the same. They must all get together behind one candidate if they hope to be competitive in December. This goal remains as elusive as ever. STANTON