GNP: IN THE LEAD, BUT NOT IN THE BAG?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 000166 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2014 TAGS: PGOV PREL KS SUBJECT: GNP: IN THE LEAD, BUT NOT IN THE BAG? Classified By: A/DCM Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Goh Kun's withdrawal from the presidential elections in South Korea means that the top three most popular candidates are all from the conservative Grand National Party (GNP). With combined approval ratings for the three GNP candidates according to a January 16 SBS-Hankook Research poll at 71.9 percent and the same day's Munhwa Ilbo-KSOI poll at 84.3 percent, many speculate the December 19 election is the GNP's to lose, with the obvious caution that the election is still eleven months away and that anything can happen in that time. END SUMMARY. Lee Myung-bak: His Race to Lose? -------------- ¶2. (C) According to the Munhwa Ilbo poll from January 16, 58.8 percent of respondents said they supported former Seoul Mayor and Hyundai Construction CEO to be the next president of South Korea. Lee received the biggest boost from Goh's withdrawal as many of Goh's supporters are conservative and even those who are progressive do not see any viable progressive candidate. Additionally, in various polls Lee received record-high support for a GNP candidate in the southwest Jeolla provinces - historically, GNP candidates receive support in the single digits while in one January 16 poll, Lee received 36 percent support. Some attribute this to Lee's strong support from the churches in the southwest but most agree it is due to the lack of a viable candidate from the region. (Note: Lee is an elder in the politically powerful Presbyterian Church. End note) ¶3. (C) According to Park Young-june, campaign director for Lee Myung-bak, Park Geun-hye's chances for victory are slim because of her gender. He said that after North Korea's October 9 nuclear test, Lee received a big boost over Park and has built continuously on this lead because in a time of uncertainty or increased possibility of conflict, Koreans prefer a man as their commander. Park said Lee was prepared to deal with any attacks that might come out about past indiscretions and said that he would push for a more open primary system. He added that the Uri Party maintaining the status quo was the best scenario for Lee and the GNP since new parties and new faces could mobilize the progressive electorate and raise public's interest in other candidates. Park Geun-hye's Strategy -------------- ¶4. (C) For Park to win, she must close the popularity gap on front-runner Lee Myung-bak before the official primary begins (under current GNP regulations April; if delayed, August). The latest round of polls conducted on January 16 has her trailing Lee by 31.5 percent in a SBS-Hankook Research poll and 36.6 percent in a Munhwa Ilbo-KSOI poll. Her main strategist, lawmaker Yoo Seung-min said that Park's immediate strategy was to focus on getting her message out before the Lunar New Year holiday on February 18 when most families will gather and talk politics. Yoo said that if there is some news - positive about her or negative about Lee - right before the holiday, it could spur a change in the popularity ratings. ¶5. (C) Park and Lee are currently running neck and neck in GNP party support. In the current primary system for the GNP, party support counts for 50 percent of the deciding vote in the primary. Her advisors contend that Lee's popularity can only come down with the emergence of a progressive candidate(s) and then the Korean people would logically start to favor Park. Other Candidates: Any Chance? -------------- ¶6. (C) Sohn Hak-kyu, seen as a dark horse candidate, has not been able to boost his popularity (in January 16 polls, Sohn was third or fourth with between 2.9 and 3.4 percent support) and the other long-shot GNP candidate Won Hee-ryong, does not register in polls (indicating less than one percent support). STANTON