CONSTITUTIONAL REVISION TAKES SPOTLIGHT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 000160

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PIRN KS
SUBJECT: CONSTITUTIONAL REVISION TAKES SPOTLIGHT

Classified By: POL M/C Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: In a surprise statement last week President
Roh proposed a constitutional revision to change the current
single five-year presidential term to a renewable four-year
term to synchronize the presidential and general elections.
Roh said he would soon initiate a bill to revise the
constitution for National Assembly approval. If the revision
receives two thirds support in the Assembly, a national
referendum would be held. Despite general support for the
revision, most Koreans, disappointed with the Roh
administration, think the revision should be handled by the
next administration. Many also question Roh's motivations
for the proposal -- Roh's lack of popularity is such that
people do not want to support any proposal if it is Roh's.
End summary.

Bill Unlikely to Pass
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2. (C) President Roh Moo-hyun announced in a televised press
conference on January 9 his plan to pursue a constitutional
change that would change the current single five-year
presidential term to two four-year terms. He asserted South
Korea was democratically mature enough to prevent a
recurrence of the personal long-term rule of the 1970s and
1980s, the original intent of the 1987 amendment in limiting
president's to a single five-year term. Roh noted that this
was a once in 20 year opportunity to synchronize the
presidential and parliamentary elections, because the
National Assembly elections take place every four years and
the next ones are scheduled for April 2008, a few months
after the December 2007 presidential elections. The
constitutional amendment process takes from 60-100 days from
the day it is proposed to the National Assembly for
discussion by either majority Assemblymen or by the
president. If approved by two-thirds of the Assembly within
60 days, it has to gain a majority in a national referendum
within 30 days of the National Assembly approval.


3. (C) In principle, all political parties and the public
agree that the proposed constitutional amendment reflects a
needed change. At the same time, they also assert that the
revision should wait until the next government. The Grand
National Party (GNP) is set firmly against the proposal and
has demanded the revision be pursued by the next
administration. Minority parties and NGO's declared that
they support the proposal but do not agree with President
Roh's method and said with the election approaching, it was
not the right time for the amendment. In a show of
disagreement with Roh's proposal, all National Assembly
opposition leaders (GNP and minority parties) did not attend
a Blue House lunch on January 11 to discuss the proposed
amendment. A leading political analyst, Professor Kang
Won-taek, told poloff that it would be impossible for the
bill to pass if the GNP opposes the amendment since the GNP
holds 127 of the 299 Assembly seats.


4. (C) According to polls taken by all major local media
outlets and research centers on January 9-10, people object
to Roh's administration managing the change despite the fact
they are not opposed to the idea of the revision. Polls
indicate those who support the proposed constitutional
revision is slightly more than, or similar to, that of
opponents (MBC-Korea Research showed that 51 percent of the
people polled supported the constitutional revision against
40 percent who opposed; and 43 percent supported the change
versus 43.5 percent who were against the revision in a
Hankyoreh-Research Plus survey). In addition, far more
respondents said they wanted to see the next government
propose the revision. According to a joint poll by MBC
Research and Gallup, about 63 percent of those surveyed on
January 10 said Roh's administration should not be the one to
make the change. In a poll by Korea Society Opinion
Institute in February 2006, 45 percent of those surveyed said
that the constitutional amendment should wait until the next
president. Moreover, in a January 9, 2007 KBS-Media Research
survey only 14.3 percent of those surveyed believed that the
revision was likely to happen in the Roh administration
compared to 76.6 percent of who did not.

Constitutional Revision Politically Motivated?
-------------- -

5. (C) Suspicions about President Roh's timing of the
proposed constitutional revision have been looming since the
proposal was first announced. According to an Uri Party
official, the media was shocked by the announcement as there
was no advance notice given Roh even late the night before in
an informal meeting he had with progressive media. Pundits
and government officials opposed to the revision offered
three explanations for the proposal's timing: first,
influence the 2007 presidential elections; second, avert the
lame duck status in the face of increasing attacks from
ruling and opposition lawmakers; and third try to build some
legacy for his largely failed administration. Many argue
that Roh is pursuing the amendment in an attempt to prove
that he is still a political player and can affect the
December presidential elections. Some pundits have also
claimed that President Roh, by steering attention away from
the Uri party reshuffle and dominant GNP candidates, was
trying to buy time to search for a viable Uri candidate.


6. (C) Some experts and national assembly members have
alleged that Roh is seeking to prevent or delay a probable
Uri Party break-up -- the Uri Party is expected to break up
officially at the party's convention on February 14. An Uri
Party official pointed out the President made the proposal
immediately after Representative Yeom Dong-youn resigned from
the party. Yeom was a close supporter of Roh and was also
one of the founding members of the Uri Party. Yeom's
defection was the first significant sign that the ruling
party could truly dissolve. Roh may hope that a successful
constitutional amendment would not only bring up his
popularity but also attract more public support for the Uri
Party.


7. (C) Park Sung-min, a leading political consultant,
commented that whether Roh intended it or not, his proposal
is likely to help him restore his political influence. GNP
Representative Park Jin lamented to poloff that however
little chance the amendment had of success, Roh was proposing
something that the GNP would have to oppose. He added that
this was the GNP dilemma -- the party should avoid being
perceived as too conservative by blocking a good idea, but in
this case, they must oppose the proposal.

Hard-Core Roh Support
--------------


8. (C) There are some Uri officials who welcome the revision
and one Uri official told poloff that he believes President
Roh's intentions were genuine. The official noted that the
constitutional revision is not a new concept, but rather a
campaign pledge Roh made when running for office. Roh has
indicated he may consider withdrawing from the Uri Party if
the opposition demands it as a precondition for passing the
constitutional amendment but has denied any possibility of
resigning before his term ends, in response to critics that
have questioned his motives behind the proposal.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) The significance of the amendment proposal itself is
minimal as it will almost certainly be blocked by the GNP.
The announcement by Roh took focus off of the front-running
GNP candidates and off of the woes of the Roh government.
With a popularity rating of single digits, the lowest
popularity rating ever for a Korean president, Roh is
grasping for straws. The amendment proposal appears to have
run its course but until the political focus in Korea shifts
100 percent to the presidential race, likely in July, Roh may
try to shake up the political scene in Korea while he is
still able.
STANTON