PROGRESSIVES STILL FAR FROM UNITED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 001479 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2014 TAGS: PGOV PREL KS SUBJECT: PROGRESSIVES STILL FAR FROM UNITED REF: SEOUL 1462 Classified By: POL Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The GNP candidates have, for now, patched up their differences and are headed toward an August primary showdown. (See Reftel) However, on the progressive side of the political spectrum, the disparate groups and their leaders are far from united. Pro-Roh politicians as well as President Roh himself have taken swipes at coalition-minded leaders who believe the Uri Party must dissolve. Uri Party presidential hopefuls Chung Dong-young and Kim Geun-tae have spoken out against Roh, criticizing his intervention in party politics. In response, Chung, the former Unification Minister, was left off the list to ride the cross-border train scheduled for May 17. Many opinion makers and political leaders are pushing for a coalition to unite the progressives in one new party, and President Roh, despite his objections, has conceded that if that is the choice of the progressives, he would not attempt to block it. In exchange, he said the coalition should happen under the aegis of the Uri Party. However, the various groups pushing for a coalition can not agree on what form the coalition should take. The minority Democratic Party (13 lawmakers) refuses to join any coalition and many pundits speculate they will field their own candidate. Sohn Hak-kyu announced his intention to form a new party in June. Much work remains for the progressives to unite effectively behind a single candidate for the presidential election. END SUMMARY. -------------- DY AND GT VS. ROH -------------- ¶2. (C) Former Uri Party Chairman and Unification Minister Chung Dong-young (DY) and former Uri Chairman Kim Geun-tae (GT) announced in early May they would separate from the Uri Party by the end of May and hoped the Uri Party's dissolution would lead to a new coalition party. A week after Kim and Chung's announcements, President Roh criticized the two for their "outdated political practices" and asked them to "quit politics altogether" if they thought the Uri Party had to dissolve. In a gratuitous swipe, Roh said the two were not even fit to run a neighborhood grocery store, let alone a nation. DY countered and said the newly formed pro-Roh political group, composed of pro-Roh lawmakers and close Roh aides, should dissolve since it was aimed to keep the Uri Party together, contrary to the Uri Party decision of February 14 to form a new coalition party. DY and GT both hope they can improve their single-digit support through confrontation with the president. ¶3. (C) Minister of Health and Welfare and possible presidential candidate Rhyu Simin posted a poll on his website asking "Why don't DY and GT quit the race since they have less than 3 percent combined support?" Amid criticism, he withdrew it from his site. Rhyu is close to Roh and this was seen as part of the larger Roh-anti-Roh conflict. In addition to the pro-Roh, anti-Roh conflict, there are problems within the Roh camp. Close Roh confidant Representative Lee Kwang-jae told reporters May 11 that Roh did not want Rhyu to run for president. -------------- COALITION? -------------- ¶4. (C) Representative Kim Han-gill, a key figure in establishing the Uri Party, formed the New Party for Centrist Reform and Integration (NPCRI) on May 7 with 20 former Uri Party lawmakers. Kim hopes to merge with the 13 members from the Jeolla Province-based Democratic Party (DP) but his efforts to date have been in vain. Two-time presidential candidate Rhee In-jae left the People's First Party (PFP) on May 13 and joined the DP, fueling speculation that he could run for president again. While many pundits note that Rhee, who has changed political affiliation eight times, has little support, his move fuels suspicions that the DP will hold its own primary and not join a possible open primary with other progressive candidates. ¶5. (C) One possible coalition scenario could involve the DP and some part of the Uri Party, but many pundits speculate that in fact, any combination is possible. GNP lawmaker Chun Yu-ok told poloff on May 15 that the GNP still hopes that the DP will choose to join the GNP in a coalition. PFP Floor leader Chung Jin-suk told poloff that he hoped the PFP could join a coalition with the GNP while many speculate the four PFP lawmakers will join some progressive coalition. Pundits note any GNP and progressive pairing is not likely, but add that the 2002 coalition between now-President Roh and Hyundai scion Chung Mong-joon as well as the former President Kim Dae-jung and arch-conservative Kim Jong-pil alliances were also unlikely pairings. ¶6. (C) Kim Han-gill encouraged Uri lawmakers to leave the Uri Party to realize a grand integration and said, "It is time to act, not debate with the president." The DP Chairman Park Sang-chun said Uri members responsible for the Uri-DP split in 2003 should be excluded from any coalition. Uri Party Chairman Chung Sye-kyun is pushing for an integrated, coalition party but he also has made little progress in encouraging concessions by the DP or NPCRI. Analysts note that for a new party to emerge, it should form by June to allow time to prepare for a fall primary. -------------- POLICY-BASED PARTY -------------- ¶7. (C) Former Gyeonggi Governor Sohn Hak-kyu and former Justice Minister Chun Jung-bae want to form new parties based on a new policy platform - Sohn a centrist, pro-FTA platform and Chun a progressive, NGO-based party. Neither of them is interested in reforging regional-based alliances with the Uri Party and the DP. However, sources close to Sohn and Chun have told poloff that they expect their candidates to either enter an open primary with other progressive candidates in September, or merge with other parties' candidates at the final stage of the campaign in November. Uri Party lawmaker Jang Hyang-sook told poloff on May 15 that Uri Party lawmakers would not accept Sohn as their candidate because of his GNP background. This is a sentiment echoed by many progressive pundits. -------------- CLEAN CANDIDATES -------------- ¶8. (C) On the up side for the progressives, they have several candidates with squeaky-clean backgrounds. Sohn Hak-kyu and Chung Dong-young both have accumulated little personal wealth and even detractors admit they are clean politicians. Also above reproach are former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook and Chun Jung-bae, both regarded as principled and uncorruptible. In the past, Korean voters valued "morality" highly in their presidential candidates. If this emerges again as an important factor, it would be a positive for the progressives. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) Progressive candidates face a very complicated equation. None of them receive double-digit support. However, Roh's fortunes have changed, now receiving about 30 percent support, making him a key player. Another important player for progressives is former President Kim Dae-jung, who, so far, has been mum, except to extend occasional counsel such as, "the GNP candidate could be beaten if the progressives unite behind one candidate and campaign with determination and sincerity." Perhaps. But for now at least, such wise counsel remains just that, because the progressives are showing no signs of heeding. VERSHBOW