2007 ROK PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 000112 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2014 TAGS: PGOV PREL PIRN KS SUBJECT: 2007 ROK PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES Classified By: POL M/C Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: If the vote for president of South Korea were today, Grand National Party (GNP) candidate Seoul Mayor Lee Myung-bak, with between 40 and 50 percent support in all leading polls, would be the runaway winner with second place going to GNP's Park Geun-hye. The bronze medal would go to independent former Prime Minister Goh Kun with a big dropoff to a crowded field of other hopefuls that includes former Gyeonggi Province Governor Sohn Hak-kyu, former Unification Minister Chung Dong-young and many others. END SUMMARY. Front-runner Lee Myung-bak: Can He Be Caught? -------------- ¶2. (C) Lee Myung-bak, former Hyundai Construction CEO, National Assemblyman and Seoul Mayor, is riding high with his one-point focus on the economy. He has pledged to boost Korea's economic growth to 7 percent through various economic projects. His signature plan is to build a canal from Busan to Seoul to connect the country much as Park Chung-hee did with the Busan to Seoul highway, pioneered in the 1960s. Lee's support is strongest among Seoul voters due to hugely successful term as Seoul Mayor that ended in June 2006. During his term, he revitalized central Seoul by uncovering Chong Gye stream, building parks and re-organizing the bus system. Lee, whose nickname is "Bulldozer," projects the image that he can get things done and lift Korea into a new era of prosperity. According to the December 26-27, 2006 Hankyoreh-Research Plus poll, driving force was the most important qualification sought in the next president in which Lee scored the highest. Lee plans to set-up his official campaign camp in early February and go on a regional bus tour from mid-January to early February. In all polls conducted by local major newspapers and networks at the end of 2006, at least 40% of respondents supported Lee to be president. ¶3. (C) The biggest challenge for Lee is to maintain his large, early lead, especially as pundits claim that part of his high poll results is due to support from previous Roh supporters who are disenchanted by the president and the Uri party. Hence, some predict once a decision is made on the future of the Uri party and a viable candidate appears, Lee will likely lose these votes. Lee's detractors also point out consistently that he must have scandals arising from his time as Seoul Mayor and Hyundai CEO that could challenge his road to victory. Lee favors open primaries and is in strong position to win the GNP nomination if the primaries are held within the coming months. Park Geun-hye: First Woman President? -------------- ¶4. (C) Former GNP Chairman Park Geun-hye, daughter of former President Park Chung-hee, is running a strong second in most polls with her support between 15 and 25 percent. While being the authoritarian president's daughter is a net plus as the nation's economic successes in the 1960s and 1970s are remembered fondly, being a woman is potentially a weak point. Park Young-june, director of Anguk Forum, Lee Myung-bak's think tank and quasi campaign headquarters, partially attributes her big drop in the polls after the October 9, 2006 North Korean nuclear test to her gender. The reasoning of Park Young-june is that Korean voters think that it takes a man to stand up to Kim Jong-il's antics. Others differ. Leading election specialist Kang Won-taek told poloff that with Park, gender is not a big hindrance to her candidacy since she was able to display her qualifications to lead - determination and dedication - by immediately resuming her public activities after being slashed in the face in May of 2006, which led Park to an approval rating of 45%. Kang noted Park is thought of as Park Chung-hee's daughter first and as a woman second. ¶5. (C) Park has assembled an impressive team of former ministers and U.S. experts and has started to release well thought out economic plans to counter Lee's canal vision. Park came in second in all the polls conducted at the end of 2006 by the press except one where she came in third after Goh. According to several of her close confidants, Park must narrow the 10 to 15 percent gap between herself and Lee by April to around 7 percent before the official primary season begins. If that is the case, Park has a chance because she has strong party support. Goh Kun: How Much Does Experience Count? -------------- ¶6. (C) Former Prime Minister, Seoul Mayor and long time functionary Goh Kun is the elder statesman who has received broad support in the southwest Jeolla region. Most experts, however, believe he does not have a legitimate chance to secure the presidency because of lack of political organization and party support. His strong third place standing is attributed mainly to the lack of candidates outside the GNP. Contacts from the GNP and the ruling Uri Party alike concede that through a primary, a new, non-Goh, anti-GNP candidate will surface. That said, Goh can not be written off, as he has strong regional support and perhaps in the case of a split in the ruling Uri Party and/or the opposition GNP, he could emerge and win the nomination as the compromise candidate - a centrist with a regional base. Goh's support has hovered around 20 percent in the past months but has dipped recently to as low at 10 percent in some polls. ¶7. (C) Critics claim Goh has not shown dynamism or leadership that would be needed to be an effective president. However the Korean public appears to be yearning for an experienced professional as president and Goh Kun has served six presidents throughout his political career. Sohn Hak-kyu: Intellectuals' Favorite -------------- ¶8. (C) Former Gyeonggi Governor Sohn Hak-kyu has been actively campaigning for the presidency since the day he stepped out of the governors' office on July 1, 2006. He has been imaginative in his campaigning, completing a 100-day tour of the country to learn what people want and has now embarked on a second bus tour to promote his policy agenda. Still, Sohn does not currently have much broad support. In the December 18 poll, the results indicated 7 percent supported Sohn. While this is higher than Roh Moo-hyun's rating in January 2002, the fact that he rated behind Seoul professor Chung Un-chan - who has not declared he will run - was a telling indicator that Sohn's candidacy is going nowhere. ¶9. (C) Sohn considers himself to be in the center of the other two GNP rival candidates, possessing the positive qualities of both Lee and Park. According to his staff, he wants to revamp the GNP to have a broader support base, including young reformists and those outside the Gyeongsang provinces. His strategy is to capture the center votes, targeting white collar 30-40 year olds. Currently, Sohn's camp is working to form a "brand" that voters can associate with Sohn much the way Lee has used the canal and Chong kye stream to define his campaign. Economically, Sohn is planning to push globalization as the key to economic recovery in contrast to Lee's focus on domestic economics. The Rest of the Candidates -------------- ¶10. (C) Former Unification Minister Chung Dong-young is the front runner among the declared Uri Party candidates but the 3 percent support in the polls tied him with non-declared Kang Geum-sil and was well behind Seoul National University professor's Chung Un-chan's 8 percent. Chung's dismal standing reflects the complete lack of support for the Uri Party and President Roh. Chung, a former TV anchor, will launch an Internet campaign January 21 that he hopes will mobilize support in the same way Roh Moo-hyun's small core of supporters did in 2002. Chung currently has joined hands with another presidential hopeful Uri Chairman Kim Geun-tae in an effort to break away from the ruling party. ¶11. (C) Second-term GNP lawmaker Won Hee-ryung declared his candidacy December 17 to little response. There is no likelihood he will win the nomination, most pundits consider his candidacy as an effort to win a second term in the National Assembly. ¶12. (C) There are several "hail-mary" candidates for the Uri Party including SNU Professor of Economics Chung Un-chan, former Justice Minister Kang Geum-shil and former Prime Minister Lee Su-song. Uri Party Chairman Kim Geun-tae, Rhyu Shi-min, Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook, and former Justice Minister Chun Jung-bae also figure in as long shots. Almost all Uri hopefuls are working on a "big bang" in August or September - through the creation of a new party uniting all progressive elements. This new party, with support from NGOs, Uri, Democratic Party, and even some GNP lawmakers, could put up a candidate to seriously challenge the GNP candidate, according to this vision. Perhaps. But for now at least, none of these candidates has any public support. VERSHBOW