CHUNG DONG-YOUNG'S ADVISORS SET FOREIGN POLICY

UNCLAS SEOUL 001047 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ETRD KN KS PGOV PINR PREL SUBJECT: CHUNG DONG-YOUNG'S ADVISORS SET FOREIGN POLICY DIRECTION ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Advisors to presidential hopeful and former Uri Party chairman Chung Dong-young's (DY) told us April 4 that Chung likely would leave the Uri Party to form his own coalition party before the presidential candidate registration deadline of April 23. Chung's advisors asserted that DY ultimately would support the FTA, but he thought ratification should be postponed until 2008. Chung also hoped that the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) would eventually be designated as an "outward processing zone" in the FTA. The advisors said the DPRK's strategy in the Six Party Talks was to obtain heavy fuel oil for disablement of the Yongbyon facility, and then negotiate a separate deal for more (either light water reactors or other aid) in exchange for dismantling their nuclear programs and relinquishing plutonium. The advisors believed the Banco Delta Asia issue was only a "technical problem" and would be resolved because North Korea desperately wanted to regain its international financial transaction capability. They asserted that South Korean humanitarian aid to North Korea established the groundwork for future progress on North-South relations. END SUMMARY -------------- CHUNG DONG-YOUNG AND THE FTA -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On April 4, the DCM hosted a dinner for foreign policy advisors to former Unification Minister and current presidential contender Chung Dong-young. Chung's advisors all agreed that Chung would leave the Uri party to create his own coalition, although Professor Kwon Manhak of Kyunghee University said specific details would be made public closer to the April 23 election filing deadline. Chung would support the recently concluded FTA, Kwon said, but he declined to comment on the degree of that support prior to the election. According to Kwon, Chung believed the agreement had been reached too fast and ratification should be held after the presidential election. Chung's advisors expressed their hope that the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) in the DPRK would ultimately be specifically designated as an "outward processing zone" and therefore fall under the purview of the FTA. -------------- --- YONGBYON FOR HFO AND SEPARATE DEAL FOR PLUTONIUM -------------- --- ¶3. (SBU) According to Kim Yeon-chul, a North Korea expert and Korea University Professor, Chung believes that an ROK-DPRK summit, preferably at Kaesong, would help the denuclearization process. Denuclearization would take time, and given that nuclear weapons and fuel were North Korea's only bargaining tools, the DPRK would not give them up easily. The DPRK's strategy was to trade "Yongbyon for heavy fuel oil (HFO) and make a separate deal for the plutonium." Chung also believes that ROK aid to the DPRK was humanitarian in nature and helped lay the groundwork for future amicable relations. On a practical level, aid to the North resulted in better security on the Peninsula and an increase in the number of South Koreans in North Korea. As an example, Kim noted that the development surrounding KIC effectively blocked one of the North's main invasion routes to the South. The complex employed over 11,000 North Koreans, creating higher standards of living in the city of Kaesong and sowing the seeds for change, Kim asserted. --- BDA --- ¶4. (SBU) The Banco Delta Asia (BDA) issue would be resolved amicably and soon, according to Senior Research Fellow at Sejong Institute Dr. Hong Hun-ik, because the remaining issues were technical in nature and, more important, because North Korea wanted and needed to reestablish its ability to execute international financial transactions. Consequently, the DPRK's interest in a positive resolution was far greater than the dollar value of the frozen funds. -------------- -------------- 1718: NATIONAL INTERESTS SUPERSEDE INTERNATIONAL LAW -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Professor Kwon commented that sanctions were not effective against the DPRK. The DCM pointed out that sanctions were effective if all parties adhered to them, and that the UNSC Resolution 1718 also symbolized the international community's strong political commitment toward a denuclearized North Korea. Professor Kwon went on to say that North Korean ships passing through ROK waters knew that they "could be boarded" at any time, so the ROK assumed they were in compliance, but he added that "national interests often supersede international law." -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (SBU) With popular support currently hovering under five percent, Chung's chances of becoming president are remote at this point. Nonetheless, given his history as Unification Minister and his strong support for engagement with North Korea, his campaign would likely benefit from any significant improvements in North-South relations in the run-up to the presidential election. VERSHBOW