KORUS FTA IN THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY - RATIFICATION,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 001011 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/27/2017 TAGS: ECON KS PGOV PINR PREL SUBJECT: KORUS FTA IN THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY - RATIFICATION, BUT WHEN? Classified By: POL M/C Joseph Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The KORUS FTA, after the signing, will be sent to the National Assembly for ratification. Pundits consider this most likely in September. The ratification process could be intense, involving protests and blockages. Still, according to Assembly contacts, the KORUS FTA will pass, but there is no consensus on when that might be. END SUMMARY -------------- AFTER THE AGREEMENT -------------- ¶2. (C) After the KORUS FTA is signed (on or before June 30), the ROK government will present the signed agreement to the National Assembly for ratification. There are no time restrictions in Korea on when the agreement must be submitted to the Assembly, although according to pundits, the most likely time for a vote on ratification is in September. The Foreign Affairs, Unification and Trade Committee will first discuss and vote on the agreement. If the agreement receives majority support in the committee, it will go to the plenary for discussion and vote. In a poll of Foreign Affairs Committee members by the Munwha Ilbo newspaper, 17 out of 25 said they would support the KORUS FTA. The plenary vote will likely be contentious. Currently a majority coalition of opposition GNP and ruling Uri Party lawmakers support the FTA. To ratify the FTA, a majority of the 299 lawmakers must be in attendance and a majority of these lawmakers must support the agreement. -------------- GNP CANDIDATES -------------- ¶3. (C) Professor Kim Woo-sang, foreign policy advisor to presidential candidate Lee Myung-bak, told poloff that Lee hoped the FTA would be signed and ratified as quickly as possible. Kim said that since Korean people can only focus on one issue for a maximum three months and knowing there will be controversy surrounding the ratification of the agreement, the goal was to ratify the FTA as far in advance of the December 19 presidential election as possible. One of Park Geun-hye's advisors told poloff that Park also hoped for a quick ratification of the FTA and predicted that Koreans would watch the FTA ratification process in the U.S. closely. He added that ratification in the ROK was likely in the fall despite strong resistance that might emerge. -------------- OPPONENTS OF THE FTA -------------- ¶4. (C) Rep. Choi Jae-cheon, a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, told poloff that he was certain that the FTA would not be ratified in 2007. While Choi has come out vocally against the FTA, he noted privately that he expects the FTA would ultimately be ratified and would help Korea's economy and its relations with the U.S. His goal in opposing the FTA was to get the best agreement and, thereafter the best safety net for those affected negatively by the FTA. Choi, part of a splinter group of ex-Uri lawmakers led by former Justice Minister Chun Jung-bae, said Chun would continue his anti-FTA hunger strike until he was hospitalized. There are currently 55 out of 299 lawmakers firmly and publicly opposed to the FTA. If others join them, while it was not likely they would attain a majority, they could block the vote from occurring on the Assembly floor. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) For now pundits are predicting the KORUS FTA will be ratified this fall. This prediction, however, depends on the continued public support for the agreement. Latest polls show a range of support for the agreement from 50 to 63.6 percent. Also a factor is action in Washington. If the U.S. ratifies the agreement, it could provide more impetus for ratification in Korea. VERSHBOW