BOSNIA: PM SPIRIC RESIGNS

UNCLAS SARAJEVO 002370 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: BK PGOV PREL SUBJECT: BOSNIA: PM SPIRIC RESIGNS Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Prime Minister Nikola Spiric submitted his written resignation on Thursday, November 1. It remains unclear whether the Presidency must formally accept or reject the resignation and Presidency members met today without taking a decision. OHR lawyers believe that the resignation took effect upon its submission and the Presidency has no authority to return Spiric to office. In that context OHR maintains that the sitting government remains in office under a technical mandate until a new government can be formed. On Monday, the RSNA will meet to determine whether to endorse a boycott, or other measures designed to obstruct the functioning of the state government. Dodik has been relatively restrained in his rhetoric while discussions between the OHR and RS lawyers explore whether the OHR can provide the Serbs with legal assurances that will resolve their concerns. End Summary. Spiric Resigns -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The President of the BiH Council of Ministers (Prime Minister of Bosnia-Herzegovina) Nikola Spiric submitted his resignation to the Tri-Presidency on Thursday, November 1. The Presidency met Friday morning November 2 to consider the action and whether it has the authority to accept or reject the resignation. The Presidency meeting adjourned without reaching a decision and resolved to revisit the issue at an unspecified future date with Spiric present. Presidency Uncertain of its Role -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Although they have not reached a final conclusion, OHR lawyers believe that the Presidency has no authority to accept or reject the resignation of the Prime Minister and that it is binding once submitted. OHR is therefore of the opinion that the Council of Ministers (CoM) has become a caretaker government under a "technical mandate." Under this arrangement Ministers still perform the duties of government but effectively are awaiting the appointment of a new government. Under the most benign possible outcome the current government could potentially be remain under a new mandate. A similar arrangement was in place from October 2006 to January of this year while the Terzic government awaited the formation of a new governing coalition. Possible Serb Actions -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Assuming Spiric does not accept reappointment, the current government continues under technical mandate until a new Council of Ministers can be appointed. The threat by RS Prime Minister Dodik's political party, the SNSD, to withdraw from government has complicated the picture. On Monday, the Republika Srpska National Assembly (RSNA) will review the results of this week's Peace Implementation Council (PIC), and ongoing discussions between OHR and RS lawyers over the Lajcak measures to determine whether to endorse a pull-out, boycott, or other measures. OHR Negotiates -------------- ¶5. (SBU) RS Prime Minister Dodik's statements yesterday following the PIC have been more mild than were recently the case. In recent public statements he asserted that unless the High Representative is able to provide adequate legal interpretations addressing Serb concerns SNSD will be forced to withdraw and go into opposition. The discussions between the OHR and RS lawyers are intended to produce those assurances, so there may be room for Dodik to avert the crisis that would follow Serb/SNSD boycott or withdrawal. Comment -------------- ¶6. (SBU) There are many courses of action open to the Serbs, including but not limited to a boycott, withdrawal, or non-participation. The method chosen to effect blockage may also vary by governmental body in order to maximize obstruction tailored to the distinct quorum and voting rules in each body. Ironically, while the Lajcak measures ease decision-making in the CoM and are meant eventually to do so also in the House of Representatives, the Serbs could use another body such as the Presidency or the House of Peoples to block decision-making, thus showing both the limitations of the High Representative's streamlining effort (absent will of the parties to make them work) and the emptiness of Serb fears of being outvoted. End Comment. ENGLISH