C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 002174

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR (DICARLO); EUR/SCE (HOH/FOOKS); NSC FOR
BRAUN; OSD FOR BEIN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA--HIREP ON MOSCOW TRIP, POLICE REFORM, AND
DAYTON IMPLEMENTATION

REF: A. SARAJEVO 1987


B. SARAJEVO 2143

C. SARAJEVO 2041

Classified By: Ambassador Charles English. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: During an October 8 dinner for Quint
Ambassadors and previewed in an earlier courtesy call with
the Ambassador that day, OHR High Representative Miroslav
Lajcak shared a read-out from his visit to Moscow, his plans
for police reform, and ideas to promote Dayton-implementation
. Lajcak said the Russians agreed to avoid public discussion
of OHR closure during the October PIC. Instead OHR closure
and regional issues involving Kosovo will be discussed off
the record at the Political Directors' Dinner. Lajcak
believes the Russians will not put up a tough fight at
November UNSC discussions to extend EUFOR's mandate. Lajcak
will continue pushing for the conclusion of an agreement
meeting the 3 EU principles before the October 15 meeting of
the EU General Affairs and External Relations Council (GAERC)
and confidentially asked HDZ-BiH leader Dragan Covic
(strictly protect) to circulate a compromise solution with
other political leaders. Regardless of whether a deal on
police reform is reached or not, Lajcak shared a series of
steps he plans to take which will likely require the use of
the Bonn Powers to ensure Dayton implementation. END SUMMARY

Russians and the October PIC in Sarajevo
--------------


2. (C) During his three-day trip to Moscow, OHR High
Representative Miroslav Lajcak met with Deputy Foreign
Minister for Relations with European Countries Vladimir Titov
and MFA Special Envoy for the Balkans Alesksandr
Botsan-Kharchenko. Lajcak told Quint Ambassadors that the
Russians agreed to avoid public discussions about OHR closure
during the October PIC. The issue will be addressed off the
record at the Political Director Dinner along with a
discussion on Kosovo and will not be mentioned in the final

communique. For the October PIC Lajcak plans to include the
heads of the six governing parties along with the heads of
government. He also wishes to invite all members of the
Council of Ministers and not just the "self-assessed weak
chairman Spiric" so that all can be called to task for the
CoM's poor performance over the past year.

Russian Views of EUFOR Mandate
--------------


3. (C) Lajcak told Titov and Botsan-Kharchenko that he wants
EUFOR to remain in Bosnia as long as OHR is present. His
Russian interlocutors countered that EUFOR could not remain
past the OHR closure. (Note: OHR's mandate is up for renewal
in June and EUFOR's in November. End Note) However, Lajcak
said the Russians are aware that EUFOR would need some time
to fully dismantle and disengage from Bosnia. So even with
their hope for a June 2008 OHR closure, Lajcak believes the
Russians will not put up a tough fight over another renewal
of the EUFOR mandate until November 2008. They told Lajcak
that Russia supports the EU integration process but did not
raise their views on Bosnia's joining NATO. (Note: Konstantin
Shuvalov, Russian Ambassador to BiH previously told Lajcak
that Russia strongly objects to Bosnia joining NATO. Ref A.
End Note)

Russians feel unwelcome in the Federation
--------------


4. (C) Russian interlocutors asserted that they are not
necessarily pro-Serb, but instead have a communications
problem with the Bosniaks. They claim their concentration on
economic relations and investment in the Republika Srpska was
not intentional, but a function of their feeling unwelcome in
the Federation. The Russians also raised a strong complaint
about prospective weapons shipments to Georgia and Abkhazia,
which they see as a serious problem.

Russians on Police Reform and Bonn Powers
--------------


5. (C) Lajcak reminded the Russians that they should support
police reform as its successful conclusion is a condition for

SARAJEVO 00002174 002 OF 003


OHR closure. Russians told Lajcak that they support Lajcak's
police reform proposal and urged Dodik to accept it, although
they see the need for a compromise between the "situation on
the ground and European conditions." They also asserted that
they understand the need to use Bonn powers but only for
Dayton Issues and not in support of the EU agenda.

OHR places hope for Police Reform deal on Covic
-------------- --


6. (C) Lajcak is continuing with a series of bilateral
meetings with political party leaders in the hope of
promoting an agreement on police reform before the October 15
meeting of the EU GAERC. (Ref B) Meanwhile, Lajcak has
confidentially enlisted the assistance of HDZ-BiH President

SIPDIS
Dragan Covic to circulate a last minute compromise document
in line with the 3 EU principles, containing elements of both
Lajcak's protocol and the Silajdzic-Dodik proposal (strictly
protect). Lajcak privately acknowledged to the Ambassador
and his UK counterpart that OHR drafted the document, but
will cast it to the public as a "Croat" paper that OHR deems
acceptable. Lajcak will continue publicly to endorse the
official OHR proposal, but is prepared to accept the "Croat"
compromise as soon as it wins consensus endorsement. (Ref C)
Lajcak will meet today (Tuesday) with SDA President Sulejman
Tihic, SNSD Serb Member of the Presidency Nebojsa Radmanovic
and HDZ-1990 President Bozo Ljubic and Wednesday with SBiH
President Haris Silajdzic. Lajcak will not hold a bilateral
meeting with Dodik. Ambassador will meet with Dodik on
October 11 in Banja Luka and will raise police reform.
Lajcak stressed that an acceptable police reform agreement
would allow Bosnia to initial an SAA but that public
broadcasting reform, full ICTY cooperation, and the adoption
of police reform legislation by parliaments would be required
to sign the SAA.

Dayton Implementation
--------------


7. (C) Although he has been concentrating on EU integration
issues, Lajcak announced he intends to devote more attention
to Dayton implementation. Regardless of whether a police
reform deal is reached, Lajcak will go ahead with a weekly
series of actions to remove obstacles to good governance and
institution building (Ref C).


8. (C) On Friday, October 19 Lajcak plans to take the
following two steps:
--Ask Parliament to amend the quorum rules for the
state-level House of Representatives to prevent the delegates
from one ethnic group from paralyzing legislative business
via walkouts;
--Address the RS Law on Security Companies, which OHR lawyers
believe is inconsistent with Dayton Annex 1A.

For the first step Lajcak will give Parliament 2-3 months to
make the changes itself, if not he will use the Bonn Powers
to impose the amendments. For the second step Lajcak did not
specify whether he will annul the law outright or give the RS
time to reconsider it.


9. (C) On Friday, October 26, Lajcak plans to take the
following three steps:
--Establish a forum for party leaders from the 6 governing
parties along with the state and entity prime ministers,
requiring them to come together and map out laws required for
EU partnership;
--Seek amendments to the Law on the Council of Ministers to
require only one Minister (vice two) from each ethnic group
to constitute a quorum on decision making;
--Introduce a law on state and ethnic symbols stipulating
that wherever an entity symbol is displayed, the
corresponding state symbol must be displayed with equal
prominence.

Lajcak did not specify whether he would impose the second and
third items outright or give the government time before using
the Bonn Powers.


10. (C) Comment: Lajcak brought back some positive news from
Moscow in so far as we can avoid public wrangling over a date
for OHR closure, which would strengthen the resolve of RS

SARAJEVO 00002174 003 OF 003


parties to wait out the international community. We are
unsure if Lajcak's sanguine assertion about a Moscow
soft-line on EUFOR's extension at the UNSC will pan out, but
would welcome the news. The new OHR-Covic proposal is a
short document which does not provide much of a structure for
future implementation. However, insofar as it is acceptable
to OHR and Brussels, we will support the initiative so that
Bosnia can initial an SAA. Successful police reform will
also allow even Lajcak's planned use of the Bonn Powers to be
in a positive atmosphere toward EU accession. We support
OHR's decision to take concrete measures to implement Dayton,
however we already notice a slight wavering in his resolve to
use the Bonn Powers as compared to one month ago (Ref C) End
Comment.
ENGLISH