BOSNIA - HIREP REJECTS SILAJDZIC-DODIK PROTOCOL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SARAJEVO 002143 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR (DICARLO),EUR/SCE (HOH/FOOKS/STINCHCOMB); NSC FOR BRAUN E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KCRM EU BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA - HIREP REJECTS SILAJDZIC-DODIK PROTOCOL BUT WILL MAKE ANOTHER "LAST" PUSH ON POLICE REOFRM REF: A. SARAJEVO 2080 ¶B. SARAJEVO 2041 ¶C. SARAJEVO 1872 Classified By: DCM Judith B. Cefkin. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) High Representative Miroslav Lajcak issued a statement October 4 formally rejecting the Police Reform Protocol signed by Party for BiH (SBiH) President Haris Silajdzic and Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) President Milorad Dodik (Ref A). The HighRep made the announcement after Dodik publicly refused to clarify the Protocol, which the HighRep said left him with "no choice but to confirm my initial assessment of their paper - in its current version, it fails to fulfill the 3 EU principles." Silajdzic provided the HighRep with clarifications on October 1, but according to OHR staff, the additional information reinforced OHR's analysis that the Dodik-Silajdzic Protocol did not represent a substantive agreement on police reform. ¶2. (C) Lajcak reminded political leaders that his police reform proposal (Ref C) was still on the table, but added that he was prepared to accept any other proposal that fulfilled the three EU police reform principles and gathered the necessary cross-party support. The HighRep warned that time to reach a deal was running out, however. OHR staff tell us that the HighRep does not intend to sponsor any further all-party police reform negotiations, but he will make another effort to secure a deal before the October 15 meeting of the EU General Affairs and External Relations Council (GAERC). In effect, the HighRep has set a new deadline. It is possible he will table another proposal as part of this "last" push for a deal, OHR staff tell us. ¶3. (C) After he returns from a three-day trip to Moscow, Lajcak plans to hold bilateral meetings with political party leaders between October 8-10. He has already scheduled meetings with HDZ-BiH President Dragan Covic, SDA President Sulejman Tihic, SNSD Serb Member of the Tri-Presidency Nebojsa Radmanovic, HDZ-1990 President Bozo Ljubic, and SDP President Zlatko Lagumdzija. Realistically, the party leaders would need to reach agreement by October 10 in order to allow time for the Republika Srpska, Federation and State-level governments to approve it (Note: A political agreement is not enough for the EU to initial an SAA. The three governments must formally adopt it as well. End Note) Working level OHR staff doubt that these meetings will result in a last minute agreement. Comment -------------- ¶4. (C) For Silajdzic and Dodik rejection of their proposal confronts them with the choice of accepting the Lajcak Protocol, attempting to come up with another agreement that meets the three EU principles, or accepting an alternative "take it or leave it" proposal tabled by OHR. Silajdzic is still taking political flak from Bosniaks for signing the Dodik-Silajdzic Protocol. As a consequence, some within OHR believe that Silajdzic might be willing to accept any proposal from the HighRep that improves on his agreement with Dodik and helps him get out of the political box in which he now finds himself. By contrast, Dodik's disdainful reply to the request for clarifications of his protocol with Silajdzic suggests that he feels little, if any, political pressure to reach an agreement. OHR staff tell us that some EU officials believe Dodik's position may soften once the EU initials an SAA with Serbia, something OHR expects to happen around mid-October. The new October 15 GAERC deadline corresponds with this date as well as with the OHR timeline for eventual Bonn Powers impositions, which the HighRep's office shared with us on September 24 (Ref B). Like most OHR staff we are skeptical that the HighRep's meetings next week will produce a last minute deal. It seems likely that the HighRep will ultimately be forced to declare the process a failure and that he will travel to the GAERC seeking support for a "new approach" to Bosnia. ENGLISH