BOSNIA: COVIC ON CROAT POLITICS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 001437 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR (DICARLO),EUR/SCE (HOH/FOOKS/STINCHCOMB),ZAGREB FOR AMBASSADOR BRADTKE E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA: COVIC ON CROAT POLITICS Classified By: Ambassador Douglas L. McElhaney for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) President Dragan Covic recently discussed Croat party politics and the chances for a renewed round of talks on constitutional reform. Covic highlighted that recent rumors of a merger between HDZ and the breakaway HDZ-1990 were unfounded because of entrenched differences at the local level. He also shared insight about Croatian Prime Minister Ivo Sanader's comments "expressing regret over his role in splitting HDZ-BiH and involving the Catholic Church in Croat politics." Anticipating an increase in HDZ strength and membership, Covic indicated his desire to work with Party for Democratic Action President (SDA) Sulejman Tihic and Republika Srpska (RS) Prime Minister Milorad Dodik in the coming weeks to return to the U.S.-brokered April package of constitutional amendments. End Summary. Croat Party Politics - Chances for an HDZ Merger Waning -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) June 14, the Ambassador met with HDZ President Dragan Covic for the first time since Covic was reelected Party President in May. (Note: Covic was recently released from prison pending an appeal of his conviction on charges of embezzlement in his prior term as party president. End Note) Covic said that Croatian Prime Minister Ivo Sanader's recent initiative to reunify Covic's HDZ with the breakaway HDZ-1990 led by Bozo Ljubic was likely to fail. According to Covic, Sanader took a calculated risk last year in the run-up to Bosnian October elections when he encouraged the defection of HDZ-1990. According to Covic, Sanader was convinced that Croats would vote in large numbers and that HDZ would carry at least five to six seats in Bosnian State Parliament. The unintended result of the divided Croat vote was that Social DemocraticParty (SDP) candidate Zeljko Komsic was elected to the Croat seat on the Tri-Presidency instead of an HDZ candidate. Covic claimed that Sanader openly admitted to him that he regrets his role in splitting the party and now wants to bring the two HDZs together to consolidate the Croat position in Bosnia. ¶3. (C) Covic said Sanader believes he can influence Bozo Ljubic to agree to a merger, but Covic says that this influence will not permeate Cantonal politics where divisions between HDZ and HDZ-1990 are deeply entrenched - even more so now than in the past. Covic says divisions between the two HDZs actually only exist at the Cantonal level, but are personality based and so strong that Croats cannot agree on anything. According to Covic, the parties have no true policy differences. HDZ-1990 needed an issue to distinguish the party and chose constitutional reform for this purpose. Covic asserted that Ljubic's opinions on constitutional reform actually mirror his own. Yet, he pointed out that Ljubic must now insist on highlighting differences to maintain his party's existence. For this reason, Covic does not believe a merger is possible at this time, or in the near future. The Future of the Two HDZs -------------- ¶4. (C) Hypothesizing about the future of both parties, Covic lamented that HDZ had lost much of its influence as a political movement and its identity as the monolithic Croats' party. He said that over the last ten years HDZ defectors had started more than ten other Croat parties, but that none had been able to withstand the test of time. He said that expelling war profiteers and others from the party only made HDZ stronger, even though losing Ljubic and Martin Ragusz to HDZ-1990 had not been beneficial. Still, he expects that HDZ-1990 will go the way of other Croat breakaway parties and disappear over the next two to three years. Covic hoped that HDZ will gain momentum in the future noting that almost 4000 individuals had recently paid membership fees to join the party and he anticipated that HDZ would double its membership in the next few months. The Influence of the Church on Croat Politics -------------- ¶5. (C) When asked about the Catholic Church's previous political involvement in constitutional reform, Covic replied that encouraging the Church to take an active role in Bosnian politics was Sanader's biggest mistake and that he would suffer political consequences as a result. Specifically, SARAJEVO 00001437 002 OF 003 Covic mentioned that Sanader is a religious man and used his influence to forge strong ties with Bosnian Cardinal Vinko Puljic and others in the Bosnian Church leadership and that there was a great deal of money involved in the process. Covic added that it is always difficult to gauge activities in the Church but that in addition to the traditional division between the Franciscan and Dominican orders, there is now a new division among the Bishops themselves. According to Covic, Cardinal Puljic is no longer able to influence even half of his bishops, and the Mostar Bishop, and Croat nationalist, Ratko Peric is losing his position of influence. Instead, Sarajevo-based Bishop Pero Sudar is the rising spokesman for the Bosnian Church's stance on constitutional reforms and other matters affecting Croats. (Note: Post has had minimal contact with Sudar in the past because of his fierce opposition to the Dayton Accords and USG policy. End Note.) Croats on Future Constitutional Talks -------------- ¶6. (C) The Ambassador highlighted the importance of having the Europeans involved in future constitutional reform discussions. Covic noted that Tihic is truly disappointed with his recent discussions with the High Representative and with the negative impact Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina (SBiH) Presidency Member Haris Silajdzic has made on the reform process. Covic explained that in recent discussions with Tihic and Social Democratic Party (SDP) President Zlatko Lagumdzija, both had indicated their hesitation to confront Silajdzic at this time. According to Covic, they feel Silajdzic's influence on Bosniaks is currently too strong and that challenging him directly at this stage would be a political mistake. He added that they anticipate his influence will diminish over the coming months and that the fall might be a good time to renew discussions on reform. Covic says that the most important component to successful talks is bringing all parties to the table, and that he hoped he might have a meeting with both Tihic and Dodik next week in Banja Luka to discuss how to move forward while maintaining the April package to the extent possible. ¶7. (C) Covic indicated that he had sent his own plan for constitutional reforms to the High Representative outlining ten specifics goals to be met within a 12-month period. Covic said he still felt his timeline was realistic for completed reforms, but that it was integral that all parties agree to move forward from compromises already made last April. He added that it was extremely important to include Lagumdzija in reform discussions because SDP opposition would be detrimental to the process. Covic mentioned that he had met with Ljubic earlier in the day and claimed they had both agreed to bring all Croat parties together to discuss a unified stance on constitutional reform. Srebrenica -------------- ¶8. (C) Asked about Srebrenica, Covic stated his party's support for measures to improve the economic and social conditions in Srebrenica on economic and social issues. He said, however, that HDZ would not support any special status for the municipality removing it from the Republika Srpksa. Instead, he stated his hope that Srebrenica concerns could be resolved through constitutional reforms, and commented that Silajdzic's manipulation of Srebrenica to stoke Bosniak nationalism was having a parallel effect on radical Croats. Covic warned that he believes Silajdzic is truly on the wrong path, and shared Lagumdzija's theory that Silajdzic's endgame is a division of the country and the creation of a small Islamic state. He asserted that Silajdzic's current actions in Srebrenica are an attempt to increase the boundaries of that future territory. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) Comment: Covic is usually quite tight-lipped, so this was quite an exception. There is, however, an element of wishful thinking to much of Covic's analysis of developments in Bosnian Croat politics. It is true that Covic's political rivals Bozo Ljubic and Martin Ragusz are essentially a one-note opposition whose relevance in national politics has decreased since the failure of the April package of constitutional reforms. However, the ongoing standoff between HDZ and HDZ-1990 over government formation in Herzegovina Neretva Canton is illustrative that the split SARAJEVO 00001437 003 OF 003 mirrors deep divisions largely based on personal and economic interests, rather than political ones. End Comment. MCELHANEY