MEDIA REACTION: WESTERN HEMISPHERE: US-CUBA DIALOGUE;

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 000640 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD DEPT PASS USTR USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: WESTERN HEMISPHERE: US-CUBA DIALOGUE; VENEZUELA, CHAVEZ'S POLICY; SAO PAULO ¶1. "From Havana To Washington" Foreign affairs analyst Newton Carlos commented in liberal, largest national circulation daily Folha de S. Paulo (7/28): "The idea of a possible dialogue between Cuba and the United States seems to be in Ral Castro's mind with who knows, maybe a slight ray of hope. There have already been three proposals based perhaps on an important development - the recent visit of ten US congressmen to Cuba. Republicans and Democrats joined the initiative, and some of them decided to break the silence by showing themselves favorable to a 'softening' of sanctions imposed on Cuba in the early 60's. The most recent proposal for dialogue brings a difference. It was not addressed to the Bush administration, but to the one that will replace it. An inter American relations expert says that the current White House and DOS tenants 'do not understand anything of what is going on in Latin America, and the lack of understanding causes disinterest'.... The expectation is that the future American president, especially if it is a Democrat, will behave in a 'more understanding, more negotiating' way." ¶2. "Effects Of Chvez's Socialism" Center-right national circulation daily O Estado de S. Paulo (7/29) editorialized: "Venezuela is marching towards socialism, but its private sector is moving to other nations.... In the past three years, four major oil companies either left Venezuela or are dismounting their business in that nation because they will not accept the conditions Chvez has imposed.... Oil production in Venezuela has declined for two years.... It is with state owned PDVSA's resources that Chvez conducts social projects in Venezuela and finances overseas his plans to become the world leader of anti-globalization and anti-American movements.... As long as the price of oil remains high, the caudillo will always be able to use PDVSA's resources to finance his project of power.... The Bolivarian policies have already destroyed 50% of the national industry, according to business associations.... In order to eliminate free enterprise, Chvez will lead Venezuela to bankruptcy. What remains to be seen is what the political effect will be." Helling