EUROPE: G-8 SUMMIT, RUSSIA, CLIMATE CHANGE; WESTERN

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 000504 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD DEPT PASS USTR USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR SUBJECT: EUROPE: G-8 SUMMIT, RUSSIA, CLIMATE CHANGE; WESTERN HEMISPHERE: VENEZUELA, CHAVEZ'S REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL INFLUENCE; SCO PAULO ¶1. "George and Vladimir" Liberal, largest national circulation daily Folha de S. Paulo (6/10) editorialized: "Vladimir Putin and George W. Bush did not solve their nations' differences at the G-8 Summit, but succeeded in moderating the tone of the rhetoric between Russia and the U.S..... Both know that part of Putin's rhetoric is aimed at the Russian voters. There will be elections for the Russian parliament in December and for president in March.... But not everything is electoral fireworks. There are, in addition to the missiles, major differences between the two nations. The problem in Kosovo involves a strong pan-Slavic appeal. The Russian government resents the poor reward it received for the support given to the U.S. following September 11, when it offered bases and intelligence services to defeat the Taliban in Afghanistan. Anchored in its economic recovery resulting from higher oil prices, Russia wants to resume its role of a military power, and does not accept the role of a mere supporter of the West.... It is good news for a world that was complaining, rightly, about U.S. unilateralism." ¶2. "Climate Chess" An editorial in liberal, largest national circulation daily Folha de ¶S. Paulo (6/9) remarked: "At first glance, Angela Merkel was defeated at the G-8 Summit. The world's richer nations and Russia left the meeting without any commitment to the goal of reducing by half gas emissions causing the greenhouse effect by 2050, as the German prime minister wanted. From such a biased point of view, George W. Bush returns to the U.S. as winner.... This is an at least partial, if not equivocated, interpretation. To expect Bush to sign a declaration accepting the scientific authority of IPCC forecasts was something unthinkable a few weeks ago. One can consider timid the commitment of 'seriously considering the decisions made by the European Union, Canada and Japan, which include cutting at least by half the global emissions by 2050.' Certainly, it would be better for the world climate if instead of this vague objective the G-8 adopted mandatory goals. On the other hand, there was fear that the U.S. was determined to empty the multilateral meeting on the climate. On May 31, Bush had proposed a parallel process with the participation of the 15 biggest polluters.... The change in the U.S.'s stubborn position may have been minimal, but happened. As much or even more disappointing was the position adopted by the G-8 and its five emerging invitees. All one can read in their joint declaration is an equally vague commitment of 'contributing with our just part to face climate change.' Such a goal will no longer be achieved without reducing emissions also in these five nations.... To be more inclusive, not only G-8 supporters, but the five emerging nations will also need to take small steps. One by one, but immediately." ¶3. "A Dangerous Partner" The lead editorial in center-right influential, national circulation daily O Estado de S. Paulo (6/11) maintained: "Hugo Chvez's distemper has shown once again that it is necessary to think very carefully before authorizing Venezuela's membership in Mercosul. It is not retaliation, but Brazil must take into consideration its own interests and the consequences for Mercosul that the admission to the bloc of a partner with enormous potential to create problems will have.... The Lula administration may not have taken these motives into consideration, but an important portion of the business sector has a clear perception of the danger. Mercosul has an extremely modest record of bilateral and inter-regional trade agreements and it will have to resume important negotiations especially if the Doha Round fails.... A new negotiation with the U.S. will emerge at any moment.... However, it will be much more difficult to adopt more pragmatic policies for Mercosul if the bloc has to deal with Hugo Chvez's political ambitions, as well as with his view of the Hemisphere. Mercosul already has excessive fractures, and Venezuela's inclusion will only increase its fragmentation.... Chvez showed once again that he does not respect or plan to respect partners. No one can doubt that he will always give less importance to commitments and common interests than to his ideological view and power ambitions. Incorporated to the bloc, he will be more of a hindrance to strengthening Mercosul as an actor in a globalized world and to Brazil's diplomatic action." McMullen