MEDIA REACTION: IRAQ: PRESIDENT BUSH'S IRAQ SECURITY PLAN;

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 000030 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD DEPT PASS USTR USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: IRAQ: PRESIDENT BUSH'S IRAQ SECURITY PLAN; SAO PAULO "Bush's Plan" The lead editorial in liberal, largest national circulation daily Folha de S. Paulo (1/12) asserted: "By announcing the sending of additional 20,000 troops to Iraq, President George W. Bush ignored the wishes of even many of his allies. The White House's new strategy contradicts the US Council of former Military Commanders in Iraq.... Bush's decision also opposes the military and political experience acquired over the past four years in Iraq. Similar attempts failed.... Of course, there was some progress in the presidential course towards a less obscure view of reality. Bush admitted for the first time the possibility of the US leaving Iraq defeated and recognized having committed strategic mistakes. Everything indicates that the new plan is another such mistake.... Of course, the new plan could theoretically help to pacify Baghdad.... The problem with the new strategy is that it depends on many 'ifs.' Even 35,000 troops are few to police a disturbed 6 million-inhabitant city.... Part of the Shiite militias fostering the civil war has infiltrated the Iraqi army. The idea of bringing Kurd troops from the northern region is also troublesome. The best chance the Kurds have to form an independent national state depends on the fragmentation of Iraq. The proposal of making social investments to follow military actions is a good one, but it seems too late for that.... The truth is that the war in Iraq was a complete disaster. President Bush speaks about victory and proposes an escalation of a conflict that, at the current moment, can hardly tolerate a military solution. And worse, he does that by contradicting everything and everyone." McMullen