MEDIA REACTION: WESTERN HEMISPHERE: VENEZUELA: CHAVEZ AND

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 000206 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD DEPT PASS USTR USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: WESTERN HEMISPHERE: VENEZUELA: CHAVEZ AND GUYANA; GWOT: AL-QAIDA'S INFLUENCE IN ALGERIA; SAO PAULO ¶1. "The Guyana Factor" Political columnist Eliane Cantanhede opined in liberal, largest national circulation daily Folha de S. Paulo (3/16): "President Bush made rapprochement gestures towards US friends in Latin America while Chvez poured millions of dollars into Argentina, Paraguay, Bolivia and will certainly do the same in Ecuador. This attitude creates, or at least projects, a two-bloc split in the continent: one pro US (regardless of who the president is) and another pro Chvez (more than pro Venezuela). And here we have a delicate factor: Guyana. According to an evaluation by Brazilian intelligence services, Chvez is direct in his aggressive rhetoric against Bush because he needs a 'foreign enemy' to mobilize domestic patriotism. But if he tried to pass from words to action, such an attitude would not be against Washington or the neighboring Colombia. Chvez is openly arming Venezuela, buying weapons from Russia, its major supplier, but he does not have and will not have ammunition (in the literal sense) to face the military power of the world's largest power if he decides to attack Washington or Colombia. If he wants to demonstrate power, he may do so indirectly, and Guyana would be a perfect target. The pretext: Venezuela has for a long time claimed possession of 60% of Guyana's territory. The real motive: Guyana receives significant assistance from the US (and also from Canada and the UK),and is generous in exchange by offering space and conditions for US military training and operations near the border with Brazil and Venezuela. Brazil is not pleased and for years has just observed. Chvez goes farther than this. He fears that a US military base may be installed in his backyard. Whether an exaggeration or not of Brazilian strategists, the fact is that Chvez has shown that he is not joking. An eventual development would be that Brazil would certainly be involved, either by air or by land, not only through diplomacy." ¶2. "Terror Network Extents Tentacles In Algeria" Center-right national circuQtion daily O Estado de S. Paulo's Paris correspondent Giles Lapouge maintained (3/16): "Washington and London have officially warned that a terrorist attempt may be carried out by Islamic radicals in Algeria to hit foreign personal working in the oil and gas industry. The tactic of the terrorists in the region has evolved.... The attacks today are aimed at the cities and especially foreign employees, and have a clear goal: to ruin the local industry and destroy the economic infrastructure in the Maghreb region.... Al-Qaida has slowly taken control of all terrorist organizations operating in different Arab zones.... Al-Qaida does not restrict its ambitions only to the Maghreb region - which involves Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco and Libya. Its network is also installed in the Middle East nations.... With al-Qaida's sponsorship, commandos have been infiltrated into Lebanon, coming from the armed resistance in Iraq, a nation that has become an important supplier of suicide terrorists to the entire region." McMullen