MEDIA REACTION: SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: IRAN'S NUCLEAR

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 000157 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD DEPT PASS USTR USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM; WESTERN HEMISPHERE: PRESIDENT BUSH'S UPCOMING VISIT TO LATAM NATIONS; SAO PAULO ¶1. "How To Negotiate With Tehran's Astuteness" Center-right national circulation daily O Estado de S. Paulo's Paris correspondent commented (2/27): "The UN Security Council members' meeting in London to discuss a new resolution against Tehran's tricks is affected by two uncertainties: the Europeans' fear that the US's tougher posture in regards to Iran's nuclear plans may lead to the bombing of Tehran's nuclear installations. The second uncertainty: Iran has opted for absolute intransigency (Mahmud Ahmadinejad's position) or for accommodation.... Ahmadinejad has reaffirmed that his nuclear program is 'irreversible.' The London meeting should quickly reach an agreement and determine much tougher sanctions against a nation that cynically defies international laws. But, as frequently happens, Tehran has sent calming signs.... Information coming from Iran has obscured somewhat the ideas that Western diplomats have about that nation. According to witnesses and journalists, the Iranian society is agitated and far from supporting Ahmadinejad's positions.... In such a 'shadow theater,' where everything is dissimulation and appearance, how can one know what the truth is? This is a problem being faced by the London meeting: how to negotiate with someone who changes their mask every minute?" ¶2. "The Rhetoric of 'Ethanol OPEC'" Center-right O Estado de S. Paulo (2/27) editorialized: "Brazilians tend to overestimate the range of international relations events that involve Brazil. President Bush's upcoming visit to Sao Paulo next week seems to be one such event from which one may expect with irrational optimism unusual benefits for the national interest. In order to prevent future disappointment, it would be better to moderate expectations about the purposes and results of Bush's quick visit. Experience suggests a cautious analysis of the evaluations carried out by interested sectors according to which the reason for the presidential visit is to create a biofuel partnership with Brazil, or an 'ethanol OPEC'.... This is not the primary reason for Bush's visit to Sao Paulo. His trip, not limited to Brazil, is above all an attempt to repair Washington's negligent, and often rough, treatment given to Latin America.... Bush yielded his Latin American policy to some of the most intractable hawks of the Republican administration.... With Condoleezza Rice in the State Department, the US attitude before its continental neighbors has once again become friendly - and more intelligent in its priority to halt Chavez's influence. In the case of Brazil, ethanol is a very opportune way to foster such a good neighbor policy, which has been reinforced by the surprisingly friendly personal understanding between Bush and Lula. But this is not enough to make one believe that the rhetoric of the ethanol OPEC will make the US effectively open its market to the Brazilian product.... The US independence from oil that Bush has mentioned is a 'political myth,' former Saudi Ambassador in Washington Turki a-Faisal said. It is still not possible to disagree with him." ¶3. "Saint Ethanol" Political columnist Eliane Cantanhede opined in liberal, largest national circulation daily Folha de S. Paulo (2/27): "Without the US wealth and political power, and without Chavez's petrodollars and expansionist frenzy, Brazil has just discovered powder, i.e. ethanol. This is the weapon the Lula administration is using to come closer to the US and to reinforce its presence among South American neighbors. The US fears being dependent on Middle Eastern oil, which suffers from chronic and acute crises, as well as on the product it imports from the formerly docile Venezuela. Therefore, there is an enormous interest by the Bush administration, the business and academic sectors and the US society in general for alternative fuels.... On top of alternative sources, ethanol has become not only a good economic, but perhaps mainly political, promise. Let us say that ethanol represents for Brazil what oil represents for Chavez, considering the due proportions. In practice, Uruguay wants to partner with the US, which wants to partner with Brazil, which wants to partner with Uruguay. A link for the chain may be ethanol, which will be the focus of Lula and Bush's agenda in Sao Paulo on March 9, as it was in the Brazilian president's conversations with Tabar Vzquez yesterday in Uruguay. Vzquez, who threatened to sign a bilateral agreement with the US, wants more attention from Mercosul and Brazil not to do so. One of the advantages it will obtain may be the construction of an ethanol plant - with Brazilian technology and financing, of course." McMullen