DOMINICAN POLITICS III #23: PARTY UNITY UNDER

UNCLAS SANTO DOMINGO 000846 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, INR/IAA; USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD; TREASURY FOR OASIA-JLEVINE; DEPT PASS USDA FOR FAS; USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION; USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH; DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL DR SUBJECT: DOMINICAN POLITICS III #23: PARTY UNITY UNDER STRESS AS PLD PREPARES FOR PRIMARY VOTE ¶1. (U) This is the 23rd cable in our series on Dominican politics in the third year of the administration of President Leonel Fernandez. PARTY UNITY UNDER STRESS AS PLD PREPARES FOR PRIMARY VOTE (SBU) On April 11 POLOFF met with Danilo Diaz of the ruling Dominican Liberation Party (PLD). As one of six members of the PLD's National Electoral Commission, Diaz is organizing the party's presidential primary between incumbent President Leonel Fernandez and organizational czar and former presidential chief of staff Danilo Medina. A third candidate, former Senator from Santo Domingo Jose Tomas Perez, is polling badly. (SBU) The balloting will be held nation-wide on May 6 at some 2,000 voting stations in a process supervised by the government's National Elections Board (JCE). All members of the PLD are eligible to vote, some 1,159,000 in total, and Diaz expects a turnout on the order of 75 percent. According to an early March poll taken by the reliable firm CID Latinoamerica, Fernandez leads Medina by 16 points (44 to 28 percent). Of the remaining 28 percent, almost all are undecided. (SBU) Diaz described the primary election as a "great challenge" for the PLD. He noted that Medina, who resigned from his post of Fernandez's chief of staff in December, has worked closely with the President for many years. Diaz said that with Fernandez and Medina long having been seen as members of the same team, it has been a very unnatural process for party leaders to chose sides for the primary race. (SBU) When asked about the primary's long-term impact on the PLD, Diaz said that -- beyond the obvious need for a clean vote respected by all -- much will depend on the winner's margin of victory. If the margin is large, reconciliation after the election will be easier. Diaz is also concerned that supporters of the winner will gloat, sowing the seeds of future discord. (SBU) Queried about past primary elections, Diaz recalled fondly the last occasion that the PLD faced a genuinely contested presidential primary -- Medina's 1999 victory over Jaime David Fernandez Mirabal. Medina lost the 2000 presidential election, placing a poor third to Hipolito Mejia and the blind, tottering Joaquin Balaguer. Diaz said that within a day of his defeat, Fernandez Mirabal had made a show unity by appearing in public with Medina and raising the victor's arm. (SBU) COMMENT: The PLD already held the presidency when it swept both houses in the 2006 congressional elections. Given the weak state of the opposition, we are not surprised that the ruling party is now experiencing some factionalization. This is a new experience for the PLD, and it is clearly an uncomfortable one. Fernandez and Medina have a long history of working together, which goes back to the struggle against the autocratic rule of Balaguer in the early 1990s. As for Diaz, he knows that a clean, well-run primary is key to a successful post-vote reconciliation effort, and he is feeling the pressure. -- Drafted by Peter Hemsch ¶2. (U) This report and extensive other material can be consulted on our SIPRNET site, http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/ HERTELL