DOMINICAN POLITICS III #30: PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANTO DOMINGO 001691 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, DRL, INR/IAA; USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/12/2017 TAGS: PGOV ECON DR SUBJECT: DOMINICAN POLITICS III #30: PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN TEAMS GEAR UP FOR 2008 Classified By: Economic-Political Counselor Michael A. Meigs, Reasons 1 .4(b),(d) ¶1. (U) This is the 30th cable in our series on Dominican politics in the third year of the administration of President Leonel Fernandez. (SBU) The presidential campaigns of incumbent Leonel Fernandez, of the Dominican Liberation Party (PLD),and Miguel Vargas Maldonado, of the Dominican Revolutionary Party (PRD),have won their primaries, chosen their senior staff, and are now readying for the main event -- the May 2008 election. Some election themes have emerged, albeit in broad strokes. Issue number one is sure to be the 2000-2004 term of the PRD's Hipolito Mejia, whose party and presidency were marred by multiple bank frauds and a resulting severe economic downturn in his later years in office. THE "NEW" PRD (SBU) Jose "Neney" Cabrera, Vargas's Campaign Director (and a Congressman for Santo Domingo),told POLOFF that the PRD wants a new look, and pointed out that he is only 40 years old (Vargas is in his late-50s). Cabrera said that former President Mejia is retired and will not play a major part in the campaign, though he is involved as an advisor and, Cabrera implied, as a fund-raiser. In contrast, the Campaign Director emphasized the key role of Alfredo Pacheco, a former Speaker of the House. As the campaign's Political Director, Pacheco is in charge of the PRD's extensive party apparatus, which extends from the regional level, to the provincial level, down to the cities, and so on. (SBU) Cabrera acknowledged that the PRD's opponent, President Fernandez, enjoys strong personal popularity. However, he argued, Dominican voters will soon tire of Fernandez's smooth speeches and see him for what he is, a leader who promises much but delivers little. When Cabrera brought POLOFF to see Vargas for drop-by meeting, another theme emerged which we can expect to see again from the PRD. Vargas said that he is very concerned about the Fernandez administration's inappropriate (and at times illegal) use of government resources for political purposes. The PRD candidate said that an example of this misconduct was seen during Fernandez's primary campaign for the PLD nomination. A CONFIDENT PLD (SBU) Francisco Javier Garcia, Fernandez's Campaign Director (and Minister of Commerce and Industry),told POLOFF that the President maintains a comfortable lead in the polls and plans to focus on running the country for the next few months. Garcia believes that Danilo Medina, Fernandez's former Chief of Staff and principal challenger for the PLD nomination, will eventually join the President's campaign team. (SBU) Garcia argues that his opponents' quest to leave the Mejia administration behind and present a "new PRD" is a long-shot at best. First, Vargas has a long-standing close relationship to Mejia and was his Minister of Public Works. In addition, Vargas is taking advice from Andy Dauhajre, a strategy sure to fail since Dauhajre was responsible for some of the Mejia administration's worst missteps during the economic crisis. Second, Garcia argues, the PRD's youthful campaign director and his staff are too inexperienced to run a presidential race, which was amply demonstrated in Vargas' poorly organized campaign launch. (SBU) Aside from the criticism of the Mejia administration, which is sure to continue, Garcia did not reveal much detail of the PLD's campaign themes. He did claim that his party has information implicating Vargas in the Marbella corruption scandal. In addition, Garcia said, the President planned to reshuffle the cabinet in August. He implied that the Fernandez Administration would be announcing new government initiatives at that time. COMMENT (C) Despite the PRD's recent election losses, it remains a larger party than that PLD and is as well, or better, organized than the ruling party. The PRD also appears to be well financed, considering its elegant and well equipped campaign headquarters, which occupies all four floors of a new office building. The PLD won resounding victories in the 2004 presidential and 2006 congressional elections by running against the record of Hipolito Mejia and his PRD. A key factor in the 2008 campaign will be whether Dominican voters hand the PLD another victory based the PRD's troubled past, and or whether they will now demand that the PLD -- which by 2008 will have held the presidency for the past four years and the congress for two -- be judged based on its own, mixed record of government. -- Drafted by Peter Hemsch ¶2. (U) This report and extensive other material can be consulted on our SIPRNET site, http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/ BULLEN