DOMINICAN POLITICS III #27: REFORMISTAS CHOOSE

UNCLAS SANTO DOMINGO 001501 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, INR/IAA; USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD; TREASURY FOR OASIA-JLEVINE; DEPT PASS USDA FOR FAS; USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION; USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH; DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: DR PGOV SUBJECT: DOMINICAN POLITICS III #27: REFORMISTAS CHOOSE ARISTY CASTRO FOR 2008 PRESIDENTIAL RACE ¶1. (U) This is the 27th cable in our series on Dominican politics in the third year of the administration of President Leonel Fernandez. Politics III, 27: AMABLE'S THE ONE On June 10 the Reformed Social Christian Party (PRSC or &reformistas8) chose Amable Aristy Castro as its presidential candidate for the May, 2008 election. The final vote tally in the nationwide party primary, announced on June 12, was 55.21 percent for Aristy and 41.51percent for Eduardo Estrella, the PRSC candidate in 2004. Estrella,s campaign manager was a sore loser. He said that the Aristy win was &imposed by spending.8 That was in fact the general opinion on the conduct of the PRSC election, in contrast to the candidate,s disingenuous slogan &The President of the Poor.8 Many thought that Aristy, president of the flush League of Municipalities, had used or misused funds both for campaigning and on election day, by paying supporters to go to the polls and by bribing others to stay away. Over the past week op-ed commentators have deployed Aristy,s crass tactic during the campaign of tossing handfuls of 100-peso notes out of the League,s helicopter. The final tally had 356,755 votes, of which 192,864 went for Aristy, 144,994 for Eduardo Estrella, and 11,458 (3.28%) for Luis Toral. Toral was seen close by Aristy,s side on voting day and in the events that followed. Party president Enrique (Quique) Antn called for all to respect the results. Losing candidate Eduardo Estrella was scathing when he made public remarks on the morning of June 13. &Apparently the clientism offered was overwhelming, arising from the imperfections of democracy, the deterioration of the political system, poverty, and a society that is falling apart.8 He said that he was beginning a "process of consultations and reflection.8 Since then, analysts have asserted that Estrella's followers will by and large refuse to vote for Amable, making his at best a Pyrrhic victory. Nothing daunted, Aristy Castro, Luis Toral and other supporters made a pilgrimage to the Santo Domingo cemetery where party founder Joaqun Balaguer is buried. Aristy Castro brushed off reporters, questions, asserting that he had not listened to Estrella,s speech. He said that he would probably be open to electoral alliances ) marking out the reformista hope of becoming a swing party in a close contest between the PLD,s Leonel Fernndez and the PRD candidate Miguel Vargas Maldonado. That might be harder than it appears. The Penn Shofeld poll on political affairs just published by HOY newspapers indicates that Amable Aristy Castro scores the highest number of negative perceptions of any Dominican politician. Of those polled, 54 percent expressed a negative opinion of him. ¶2. (U) Drafted by Michael Meigs. ¶3. (U) This report and extensive other material can be consulted on our SIPRNET site, http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/ OLTYAN