DOMINICAN POLITICS III #25: FERNANDEZ WINS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANTO DOMINGO 001078 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, INR/IAA; USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL DR SUBJECT: DOMINICAN POLITICS III #25: FERNANDEZ WINS PRIMARY; FACES UNITY CHALLENGE REF: A. SANTO DOMINGO 1017 ¶B. SANTO DOMINGO 0348 ¶C. 06 SANTO DOMINGO 3521 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Rolland W. Bullen, Reasons 1.4(b),(d) ¶1. (U) This is the 25th cable in our series on Dominican politics in the third year of the administration of President Leonel Fernandez. FERNANDEZ WINS PRIMARY; FACES UNITY CHALLENGE -------------- (U) On May 6, President Leonel Fernandez won the presidential primary for the Dominican Liberation Party (PLD). With 36 percent of the vote tabulated, Fernandez stood at 71 percent while his sole challenger, former presidential chief of staff Danilo Medina, had received 29 percent. (U) Medina conceded Sunday evening, but continued to champion his principal campaign theme -- opposition to the practice of presidential re-election, combined with allegations of inappropriate use of government resources by the Fernandez's team. Medina, who does not hold government office, criticized his incumbent opponent's campaign, saying, "I have always said that this (election) was a competition against the Dominican state, and the state imposed itself." (C) In the May 2008 presidential election, Fernandez will face Miguel Vargas Maldonado of the Dominican Revolutionary Party (PRD) (Ref A-B). Fernandez is personally popular, presided over the economic recovery from the 2003-2004 crisis, and carries the advantages of incumbency. For his part, Vargas Maldonado is sure to harp on the popular perception that the government's economic statistics do not reflect the reality of working class life. The average Dominican has the impression that unemployment remains high and wages remain low. The Reformist Party (PRSC),which polled only 7 percent in the last election, will nominate its candidate on June 10. (SBU) Several observers in this developing country criticized the high cost of the primary campaign, US$3.7 million in total, and continued their pressure for more transparency in political donations and for a shorter campaign period. Dominicans, through an ongoing constitutional reform initiative, continue to consider the idea of unifying the year in which presidential and congressional elections are held. The goal would be to reduce cost and help keep incumbents focused on statecraft instead of politics (Ref C). COMMENT -------------- (C) A highly competitive primary was a new experience for the PLD, and it was clearly an uncomfortable one. Now the party has one year to pull together to face the common opponent. Medina's 29 percent showing is substantial, coming as it did against an incumbent president, and exposed weaknesses in the Fernandez campaign that the PRD is sure to exploit. Despite the fact that presidential re-election is common throughout the world, 48 percent of Dominicans oppose the practice, according to reliable polling data. We suspect that this is one of the reasons why Fernandez's high approval rating (64 percent) is not matched by the PLD's lead over the PRD in early polls of the presidential race (5 percent). (C) Medina's future is uncertain. He was a giant within the PLD, credited by many with being the organizational brain behind the party's rise from third-party status in 1996 to control of the presidency and congress by 2006. However, he resigned as Fernandez's chief of staff to challenge him, and only time will tell how the hard-hitting primary fight will affect the two leaders' relationship. -- Drafted by Peter Hemsch ¶2. (U) This report and extensive other material can be consulted on our SIPRNET site, http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/ BULLEN