IT'S A "VISION THING": CONCERTACION NEEDS A LITTLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANTIAGO 001604

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/30/2017
TAGS: PGOV CI
SUBJECT: IT'S A "VISION THING": CONCERTACION NEEDS A LITTLE
SIZZLE WITH ITS STEAK

REF: A. SANTIAGO 1499

B. SANTIAGO 813 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Charge, a.i. Carol Urban for reasons 1.5 (b and d).

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Summary
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1. (C) The president of one of the four parties making up the
Concertacion, Chile's governing center-left coalition, is
confident Concertacion can maintain its nearly twenty year
hold on power, despite discontent over how the Bachelet
administration has handled issues such as the Transantiago
mass transit morass. While admitting to potential
"Concertacion fatigue," PPD president Bitar said that, in the
end, voters will keep the coalition in power because they
perceive it as more ideologically inclined than the
center-right to address social issues, including labor reform
and provision of health care. Concertacion will have to
convince Chileans that recent problems, including charges of
corruption and perceived incompetence, are not signs of
stagnation and that the coalition has a vision for Chile in
2009 and beyond. End summary.


2. (C) A/DCM had lunch September 28 with Sergio Bitar,
president of the Party for Democracy (PPD),a center-left
party, and one of four that make up the governing
Concertation coalition. Bitar, a former Education Minister
during the Lagos administration, had just returned from New
York, where he had been a member of the delegation
accompanying President Bachelet to the UNGA. Bitar said
Bachelet had gone over "very well" in her participation at a
human rights forum at Colombia University, although her
speech to the UNGA was "nothing noteworthy."

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A Simmering Pot? Probably Not
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3. (C) A/DCM noted that during the confirmation hearings of
Ambassador-designate Simons earlier in the week, there had
been some concern expressed by U.S. Senators over perceived
social unrest in Chile. Was the concern warranted? Bitar
said that the violent demonstrations seen on September 11
(ref A) - which included the death of a national policeman -
required a strong government response, the "mano dura" (hard
hand). The vast majority of Chileans rejected violent street
protests. While there are legitimate grievances, for example
the unresolved Transantiago mass transit problem (reftels),
they are not a harbinger of an imminent social explosion.
That said, much more needed to be done by the Bachelet
administration to address not only Transantiago, but also
continuing shortcomings in provision of health care and
education. He planned on making these very points that
evening to a party gathering. (Note: He did, in remarks
given extensive press coverage.)

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In Search of a Visionary
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4. (C) Looking to the December 2009 presidential elections
Bitar admitted that Concertacion, after eighteen years in
power, risked being seen as stagnant and lacking in ideas.
Corruption charges, while unproven, added an unhelpful
perception that Concertacion felt entitled to power. The two
years leading up to 2009 would be critical and, Bitar said,
it was not just a matter of providing resources, but also
putting forth a "vigorous message" explaining why and where
Concertacion wanted to lead Chile. Concertacion had to be
seen as wanting Chile to be innovative and daring - it had to
put forth a "vision." Asked who among the current
Concertacion leadership might provide such vision, Birtar was
a bit nonplussed. He doubted either former President Lagos
or OAS SecGen Insulza, both socialists, would run. (Note:
Insulza, at least, is thought by many to be the likely
Concertacion candidate.) Christian Democrat party leader
Soledad Alvear could be Concertacion's standard-bearer, Bitar
said without much enthusiasm, noting she was not as
charismatic as Bachelet.


5. (C) Bitar was confident, nonetheless, that Concertacion
could beat anybody that the center-right Alianza would run,
including current front-runner Sebastian Pinera, a
billionaire businessman, and Alianza's candidate in the 2006

run-off election. While Pinera was riding high in the polls
now, so was Joaquin Lavin, Alianza's candidate in 1999, and
who was defeated by Lagos. Moreover, whom would voters
believe could realistically offer solutions to problems like
labor reform or health care, the left or the right? If
Chile faced issues such as faltering economic growth than
perhaps the right would be more attractive. But on social
issues, "we have more credibility."

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And Better Ties in the Neighborhood
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6. (C) Bitar criticized the administration for not doing a
very good job in its relations with Peru, Argentina, and
Bolivia. If the Chilean economy is to continue growing, it
needs to position itself as a "platform" for the region. The
lack of a good physical infrastucture linking Chile with its
neighbors - reflecting poor political ties - will make that
task much harder.

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Comment
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7. (C) Bitar's belief that sporadic, violent demonstrations
are not symptomatic of a deeper social malaise is a common
one in Chile. That is likely true. It's always helpful to
remember that this country has made great strides in reducing
poverty if not inequality. But lower and middle class
Chileans do share a view that Chile is a country with money
in the till and needs on the street, many of which have not
been addressed by a Concertacion administration seen by many
as incompetent, even if well-meaning. More than a vision,
Concertacion needs to show that it still maintains the
ability to provide solutions for a restless mass, if it
wishes to hold onto the presidency after 2009. End comment.
URBAN