EL SALVADOR: LEADERS FOR CHANGE, THIRD-PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 000360 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/27/2017 TAGS: PGOV ES KCOR PHUM PINR SUBJECT: EL SALVADOR: LEADERS FOR CHANGE, THIRD-PARTY JOCKEYING REF: 06 SAN SALVADOR 2873 Classified By: CDA Michael A. Butler for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Populist San Miguel Mayor Wil Salgado (reftel),worried that his National Conciliation Party (PCN) will cut a deal with the ruling ARENA party not to run a presidential candidate in 2009, is exploring other options, including an alliance with moderate FMLN and former FMLN mayors. Salgado and his new allies have already conducted extensive consultations and anointed themselves the "Leaders for Change." The Christian Democratic Party (PDC) and Revolutionary Democratic Front (FDR, a group of moderate FMLN defectors) have been approached by Salgado and asked to consider allowing him either to use one of their party banners to run for the presidency, or forming some kind of electoral alliance to break the two-party mold in El Salvador. Salgado plans to meet soon with Salvadoran supporters of his movement in the United States. Although a Salgado candidacy would complicate the 2009 picture, El Salvador's 50 percent electoral threshold makes a "Nicaragua Scenario" very unlikely. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Salgado's motives in forming this new alliance are multifaceted. His primary motivation is to ensure his own party's leadership does not close ranks and leave him without a party banner to seek the presidency in 2009 (Note: Under Salvadoran law, candidates for the presidency must run under the banner of one of the parties given legal standing by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE),an ARENA dominated institution that will not likely be admitting new parties. End Note). Salgado has apparently concluded that should the PCN strike a deal with ARENA not to run a candidate, he will be left with only the option of persuading the FDR or PDC to allow him to run under their banner. For now, he still publicly states his preference to run as the PCN candidate, and says his motivation is to provide a united front to strip power from ARENA in 2009. Salgado says ARENA has won in the past using a strategy of "divide and conquer," and that his group must thus counter that strategy. ¶3. (C) Prominent members of this new group include the PDC (formerly FMLN) Mayor Orlando Mena of Santa Ana (El Salvador's second-largest city); moderate FMLN Santa Tecla Mayor Oscar Ortiz (who was recently shunned by FMLN hardliners at the party's convention); and FDR Nejapa Mayor Rene Canjura, the FDR's poster child of successful municipal government. A number of small-town ARENA mayors are also reportedly caucusing with the group, nominally because of shared common ideals regarding municipal government's responsiveness to citizens' needs. Finally, Canjura also announced that the group is seeking support in the Legislative Assembly, and may already have two deputies on board, though he has so far declined to identify them by name or party. ¶4. (C) Although Salgado has identified Mena as his preferred running mate, Mena has not yet agreed to any such arrangement, opining that the new group should first focus on the issues and a platform before naming possible candidates. Salgado has nonetheless taken an early lead in assuming the group's reins of leadership, and is likely to leave the development of a platform to other members, while he recruits additional municipal leaders for the alliance and focuses on his own prospects. He also plans to travel to the United States to seek support among the expatriate Salvadoran community in large cities including Los Angeles, which has a large population of Salvadorans from the eastern region, who are likely already familiar with Salgado via communication with relatives. (Note: Legislators and the Supreme Electoral Tribunal have not yet determined whether the two-million-plus Salvadorans living in the United States will be able to vote absentee in 2009. End Note). ¶5. (C) Despite significant damage to his reputation from a bizarre and freewheeling recent interview with the Washington Post (during which he claimed to keep a collection of babies' skulls from wartime years),Salgado remains confident that "Leaders for Change" will back him to be their candidate, and he thinks he can win the presidency. Respected human rights groups in El Salvador vociferously denounced Salgado after the Post article appeared. Salgado later recanted much of the interview, but for many, his image is now tarnished with the association of wartime human rights abuses. Although Salgado has publicly dissociated himself from Lt. Col. Domingo Monterrosa (fabled commander of the Atlacatl Battalion, accused of many human rights violations during the war),he proudly displays paintings of the two together during the war years, both in his home and at the San Miguel City Hall. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: Despite his eccentric behavior and the Washington Post article, Salgado remains popular with many Salvadorans who appreciate his down-to-earth style and attention to their needs. He has won three successive campaigns for San Miguel city hall by wide margins--each time under a different party banner (PDC, ARENA, and now PCN). Despite his lack of education and sophistication, his new scheme of seeking support among former FMLN mayors is politically astute in its ability to expand Salgado's ideological and regional base. Although Mena represents a logical running mate for Salgado, combining in one ticket the center-right and center-left mayors of the two largest cities outside of San Salvador, such a deal is far from certain. None of the "Leaders for Change" mayors have yet explicitly endorsed Salgado, and FDR leaders Julio Hernandez and Ileana Rogel recently confided to poloff that forming a coalition with Salgado was merely a "necessary evil" to broaden their support base beyond the center-left. The Saca administration continues to exhibit confidence that 2009 will be another two-party show, but they cite Salgado's potential to split the conservative vote as a possible problem. Although a Salgado candidacy may complicate the electoral landscape, an Ortega-style victory is unlikely in El Salvador, given the nation's 50 percent threshold for a first-round victory in presidential balloting. END COMMENT. Butler