FMLN APPROVES FUNES-SANCHEZ CEREN PRESIDENTIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 002269 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2017 TAGS: PREL ES SUBJECT: FMLN APPROVES FUNES-SANCHEZ CEREN PRESIDENTIAL TICKET; FUNES ATTEMPTS TO REASSURE VOTERS AND INVESTORS WHILE PROPOSING CLEAR POLICY SHIFTS REF: SAN SALVADOR 1947 Classified By: Michael A. Butler, Charge, for reasons 1.4(d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The FMLN approved unanimously November 11 its presidential ticket of journalist Mauricio Funes and Salvador Sanchez Ceren, head of the FMLN's bloc in the National Assembly. As expected, Sanchez Ceren's acceptance speech played to the FMLN's core supporters, while Funes' message was calibrated to appeal to more moderate voters, focusing on pocketbook issues. End Summary. ¶2. (C) The FMLN held its 23rd assembly November 11 in San Salvador in order to approve formally its presidential ticket of Funes and Sanchez Ceren. The date chosen was heavy with symbolism, commemorating the 18th anniversary of the so-called final offensive of the civil war. (Note: The selection of this date was sure to energize the FMLN's base while angering the right and potentially alienating a significant number of voters.) The ruling ARENA party took out full-page advertisements to commemorate the victims of that assault; the FMLN called for its supporters to continue the struggle for social equality in the political arena. ¶3. (C) FMLN General Coordinator Medardo Gonzales closed his remarks by putting the Funes-Sanchez Ceren ticket up for approval by party delegates, which was approved unanimously. In his acceptance remarks, Sanchez Ceren played to the FMLN's core supporters, thanking Havana for restoring the sight of 4,000 Salvadorans by way of gratis medical procedures, and thanked Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela and other states for their support. He repeatedly called on supporters to pursue the goals of the November 11 final offensive, asserting that the FMLN had fully done its part in implementing the peace accords by laying down its arms and integrating into the political system while ARENA had impeded El Salvador's democratic development. He lamented the soaring price of basic foodstuffs for poor Salvadorans, accused ARENA of merely allowing the rich to become richer, and pledged that the FMLN would, once in government, make a priority of extending electrical, telephone, water, health, and education services to the entire population. ¶4. (C) In his remarks, Funes noted the death of his son in October, and quoted the remarks of an unnamed author who observed that a significant loss can only be overcome by building something even greater. To wild approval, Funes declared his intention to build a new El Salvador. He scolded ARENA for calling November 11 a "day of mourning" and called on Salvadorans to remember those who had died in the struggle for a more just and equitable El Salvador. ¶5. (C) Funes quickly turned to what promised to be a main theme of his campaign: the economy. Notably, Funes mentioned neither dollarization nor CAFTA directly, two perennial themes for the FMLN. He lamented the soaring prices of basic goods, and noted that by the end of 2008, the minimum salary will only reach $220 in some cases (there being different minimum wages in different sectors),and will still not be enough for poor Salvadorans to meet basic needs. He mocked the ARENA government for celebrating the fact that "two or three people a day" fewer are being murdered as a great success. He alleged that ARENA supporters had been greatly enriched by the model of private security that has emerged in the face of the Salvadoran government's inability to ensure public security. He recalled Saca's campaign pledge that he would "end the party" for delinquents in El Salvador. Instead, Funes said, the delinquents have moved into the presidential palace. ¶6. (C) Funes said there was no substitute for economic growth in order to lift Salvadorans out of poverty, but economic growth that only benefits the rich is unacceptable. In remarks that were clearly meant to reassure foreign and domestic investors, he said the FMLN would not abandon market economics, but that some degree of state intervention would be needed to end poverty in El Salvador and end monopolistic abuses. The benefits of economic growth, he said, must accrue to the majority. He lamented the GOES' lack of resources due to poor tax policy and tax evasion. He pledged to remove regressive elements from El Salvador's tax code and to spare no effort in order to attack corruption, tax evasion, and smuggling. His administration, he said, would respect investments, both foreign and domestic, and he said investors should not fear a Funes-FMLN government. That said, those investments would be respected under terms of Salvadoran law, and Funes suggested that there would be a focus on ensuring companies complied with Salvadoran labor law. Funes said his administration would seek a more equitable distribution of income in order to reduce poverty. In another move to assuage fears of an FMLN government, Funes declared he would "not be anyone's puppet" nor beholden to any political force if elected. ¶7. (C) Moving to foreign policy, Funes asserted that there would be a change from ARENA's "servile" foreign policy vis-a-vis the U.S. His administration would, he said, pursue a multipolar foreign policy that respects El Salvador's sovereignty and pursues Salvadoran interests. Funes warned supporters and potential voters "not to be fooled" by ARENA about policy towards the U.S., saying that his government will pursue and reinforce close political, economic, and trade ties with the U.S. He called for more equitable treatment of Salvadorans under U.S. immigration law. He asserted that when elected, he would end the participation of El Salvador's Cuscatlan Battalion in coalition efforts in Iraq, and that his government would establish diplomatic relations with both Cuba and the PRC. In a statement that seemed designed to appeal to the FMLN's core while reassuring more moderate voters, Funes said that relations with Venezuela would be carried out on the same terms as those with the U.S., i.e., based on respect for El Salvador's sovereignty while taking advantage of commercial and other opportunities. ¶8. (C) Comment: Funes, who has still not joined the FMLN, was given a rock star's welcome by the party faithful in the overflowing Cuscatlan stadium, with a crowd approaching 50,000. Those in attendance clearly believed the FMLN's ticket stands a real chance of victory in 2009. In an apparent indication of his intended appeal to moderate voters, Funes was dressed in grey trousers and a blue sport coat, the only speaker on the platform not wearing the FMLN's standard-issue red. However, ARENA is sure to mount an aggressive campaign to link Funes to the radical positions pursued by the FMLN since the Civil War. ¶9. (C) Comment continued: As expected, Sanchez Ceren's remarks were clearly aimed at the FMLN's hard-core faithful, lauding a rogues gallery of leftist regimes in Latin America and hailing the FMLN's military role in the Civil War. Funes, on the other hand, was clearly trying to acknowledge the FMLN's hard core, while focusing his remarks on issues that will appeal to the centrist voters he needs in order to win. His economic and trade proposals were packaged in terms of spreading equitably the benefits of trade and economic growth while not causing investor panic. His foreign policy remarks were carefully crafted, avoiding direct criticism of the U.S. while attacking what Funes views as ARENA's submissive attitude towards the U.S., while reassuring Salvadorans both in and out of the country that his administration will pursue continued good relations with the U.S. It is clear, though, that U.S.-Salvadoran relations will change dramatically if Funes is elected, something we still view as possible but not likely. BUTLER