(C) ARTURO ZABLAH LIKELY TO RUN; WAITING TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 002169 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV ES SUBJECT: (C) ARTURO ZABLAH LIKELY TO RUN; WAITING TO FINALIZE COALITION REF: SAN SALVADOR 1943 Classified By: Michael A. Butler, Charge, for reason 1.4 (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Arturo Zablah told us October 24 he would know by the end of the month which parties (FDR, PDC, and CD) would support his presidential campaign in coalition, at which point he would make a decision and announce his candidacy. At this point, Zablah believes only CD's support is still in question, and he suggested he would probably run with or without their support. End Summary. ¶2. (C) PolCouns spoke October 24 with Arturo Zablah, probable presidential candidate for a coalition led by the FDR and other small, centrist parties. Since we last spoke September 18, Zablah and a small group of advisors have been visiting towns and cities around El Salvador to gauge support for a possible candidacy, based on the plan he announced in September (Reftel). He said two primary reasons for believing his could be a viable candidacy were that almost 20 years of ARENA government had left a "bad taste" in many Salvadorans' mouths and that no amount of "makeup" would disguise FMLN candidate Mauricio Funes' left-wing orientation or the true intentions of the hard core of the FMLN. Zablah cited recent polling data from Costa Rican firm Borges suggesting some 60 percent of Salvadorans described themselves as centrists (not counting those who did not respond or did know know). Over 80 percent said they would not vote for a party that would endanger relations with the U.S., and over 70 percent said they believed election of the FMLN would damage U.S.-Salvadoran relations. ¶3. (C) Zablah told us that talks with the PDC to form a coalition with FDR supporting his candidacy are "well underway" and described them as all but complete. He said similar discussions with the CD are ongoing, but not as advanced, as the CD continues to hold out for the VP slot on the FMLN ticket. (Note: The FMLN has named Salvador Sanchez Ceren as its VP candidate, running with Mauricio Funes, and has publicly made clear that this decision is final. Zablah understands the CD has been told the same privately a number of times, as well. End note.) Zablah hopes all three parties (FDR, PDC, and CD) will join in a coalition, since the three together would provide an ideological balance across the center of the political spectrum (from Christian Democrat to centrist socialist) and would provide substantial structure and party machinery. The three together would also expect to hold from 15 to 25 seats in El Salvador's 84-seat Assembly, not a majority, but enough to build coalitions with other parties (Zablah believes ARENA would be most likely to cooperate.) Zablah reported the CD has a self-imposed deadline of the end of October to make a decision on joining this coalition. Pressed, Zablah said he was leaning towards running even without CD's support, but would prefer a three-party coalition. ¶4. (C) Asked if PDC's support came with conditions, especially in terms of his running mate, Zablah said no, and said the PDC's Rodolfo Parker had told him charismatic San Miguel mayor Will Salgado would seek re-election. (Comment: Given our recent conversations with Salgado (Septel) and Salgado's penchant for changing party affiliations, this may be wishful thinking.) Zablah suggested he was talking with several possible running mates, and said he was seeking another outsider like himself, as opposed to someone currently holding political office. ¶5. (C) Zablah said that with a party machine, a campaign platform and strategy ready or being developed, the remaining challenge was financing -- clean financing. He estimates that with $10 million he can mount a credible campaign. Of that, he anticipates half would come from about 100 wealthy business donors, some $3 million from the funds provided by the central government to political parties in the form of campaign financing, and the rest from small donors. ¶6. (SBU) Zablah plans to travel to the U.S. November 1 to participate in a conference in Los Angeles and later visit Washington where he plans to meet with State and USAID officials, among others. Zablah plans to announce his run for the Presidency soon after he returns, if his decision is positive. ¶7. (C) Comment: Zablah, a former ARENA Minister of Economy, enjoys a positive reputation among Salvadorans but will face an uphill battle if he chooses to run. The entrenched party machinery of the FMLN and ARENA will pose a challenge, as will voters' fear of throwing away a vote on a doomed third-party candidate. If, however, his campaign gains traction and appears poised to force a second round in presidential voting, Zablah could conceivably force both the FMLN and ARENA to compete more intensely for the center, drawing them away from the comfort zone of their hard-core supporters. Butler