SALVADORANS WILL GO TO THE POLLS TWICE IN 2009

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 001249 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/19/2017 TAGS: PGOV ES SUBJECT: SALVADORANS WILL GO TO THE POLLS TWICE IN 2009 Classified By: Ambassador Charles L. Glazer, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (U) The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) announced June 15 that the 2009 elections will be held on two separate dates, with Salvadorans going to the polls first on January 18, 2009 for municipal/legislative elections and then again on March 15, 2009 to elect the next president. By TSE estimates, splitting the municipal and legislative elections from the presidential election will raise the cost of holding the elections from USD 17 to 21 million. President Saca announced that the government is prepared to fund both election dates. The long-anticipated decision to split the elections was led by TSE President Walter Araujo (ARENA),who was joined by the TSE's PCN member and the independent member from the Supreme Court. The FMLN and CD members on the TSE voted against the decision, and the FMLN has argued stridently for a more robust expansion of residential voting. (Note: The TSE's PCN member claimed publicly that the FMLN had approached ARENA and offered greater legislative cooperation in the existing Assembly in exchange for keeping 2009 elections on the same date; this allegation remains unconfirmed by other parties. End note.) ¶2. (C) The PCN has since called for a return to a national at-large slate of Legislative Assembly seats; the 20-seat "plancha nacional" was declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court in 2002. (Note: The poor showing of PCN candidate Jose Machuca in the 2004 presidential election--in which he garnered only 2.7 percent--nearly led to the party's dissolution; under Salvadoran electoral law, parties must win at least 3 percent of the vote in order to field candidates in the succeeding election. End note.) The return of an at-large national slate would also likely facilitate the reelection of PCN Secretary General Ciro Cruz Zepeda, a former national-slate deputy whose 2006 bid for reelection failed in his native Cabanas Department. ¶3. (C) There is speculation among political observers that ARENA strategists believe that separation of the elections will allow voters frustrated over the nation's crime problems to "blow off steam" with protest votes for the PCN and PDC in the legislative and municipal round, but that such voters will afterwards return to the fold for the presidential election. Most agree that splitting the elections will also benefit smaller parties, allowing them to stake out distinct policies and appeal directly to local interests, without risking loss of voters due to their traditional lack of presidential "coattails". ARENA insiders believe that in separate legislative elections, the smaller parties will take votes away from the FMLN and act as a brake on any large-scale FMLN legislative gains. ¶3. (C) COMMENT: While the TSE's decision was clearly politically-motivated to favor the center right in 2009, the actual effect on the elections' outcome is likely to be minor. At most, it will simply ensure that some semblance of the legislative status quo remains the case with the 2009-2012 Legislative Assembly, leaving room for smaller political parties to participate at the national level. END COMMENT. Glazer