SALVADORANS WILL GO TO THE POLLS TWICE IN 2009

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 001249

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/19/2017
TAGS: PGOV ES
SUBJECT: SALVADORANS WILL GO TO THE POLLS TWICE IN 2009


Classified By: Ambassador Charles L. Glazer, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (U) The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) announced June
15 that the 2009 elections will be held on two separate
dates, with Salvadorans going to the polls first on January
18, 2009 for municipal/legislative elections and then again
on March 15, 2009 to elect the next president. By TSE
estimates, splitting the municipal and legislative elections
from the presidential election will raise the cost of holding
the elections from USD 17 to 21 million. President Saca
announced that the government is prepared to fund both
election dates. The long-anticipated decision to split the
elections was led by TSE President Walter Araujo (ARENA),who
was joined by the TSE's PCN member and the independent member
from the Supreme Court. The FMLN and CD members on the TSE
voted against the decision, and the FMLN has argued
stridently for a more robust expansion of residential voting.
(Note: The TSE's PCN member claimed publicly that the FMLN
had approached ARENA and offered greater legislative
cooperation in the existing Assembly in exchange for keeping
2009 elections on the same date; this allegation remains
unconfirmed by other parties. End note.)


2. (C) The PCN has since called for a return to a national
at-large slate of Legislative Assembly seats; the 20-seat
"plancha nacional" was declared unconstitutional by the
Supreme Court in 2002. (Note: The poor showing of PCN
candidate Jose Machuca in the 2004 presidential election--in
which he garnered only 2.7 percent--nearly led to the party's
dissolution; under Salvadoran electoral law, parties must win
at least 3 percent of the vote in order to field candidates
in the succeeding election. End note.) The return of an
at-large national slate would also likely facilitate the
reelection of PCN Secretary General Ciro Cruz Zepeda, a
former national-slate deputy whose 2006 bid for reelection
failed in his native Cabanas Department.


3. (C) There is speculation among political observers that
ARENA strategists believe that separation of the elections
will allow voters frustrated over the nation's crime problems
to "blow off steam" with protest votes for the PCN and PDC in
the legislative and municipal round, but that such voters
will afterwards return to the fold for the presidential
election. Most agree that splitting the elections will also
benefit smaller parties, allowing them to stake out distinct
policies and appeal directly to local interests, without
risking loss of voters due to their traditional lack of
presidential "coattails". ARENA insiders believe that in
separate legislative elections, the smaller parties will take
votes away from the FMLN and act as a brake on any
large-scale FMLN legislative gains.


3. (C) COMMENT: While the TSE's decision was clearly
politically-motivated to favor the center right in 2009, the
actual effect on the elections' outcome is likely to be
minor. At most, it will simply ensure that some semblance of
the legislative status quo remains the case with the
2009-2012 Legislative Assembly, leaving room for smaller
political parties to participate at the national level. END
COMMENT.
Glazer