EL SALVADOR: SALGADO'S EXPULSION FROM THE PCN AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 001248 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2017 TAGS: ES PGOV PREL SUBJECT: EL SALVADOR: SALGADO'S EXPULSION FROM THE PCN AND 2009 REF: A. 2006 SAN SALVADOR 2873 ¶B. SAN SALVADOR 360 Classified By: Ambassador Charles L. Glazer, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Following his expulsion from the National Conciliation Party (PCN),populist San Miguel Mayor Will Salgado is considering whether he will seek to rejoin the Christian Democratic Party (PDC) under whose banner he first sought office, or instead move to the relatively new splinter group of former FMLN moderates, the Revolutionary Democratic Front (FDR). Salgado's departure from ARENA's center-right PCN allies likely cheers the ruling party, heretofore leery of Salgado's effect as a PCN candidate on the conservative vote. Although a Salgado candidacy outside of El Salvador's two main parties would complicate the 2009 electoral scenario, he has little if any chance of becoming president. El Salvador's 50 percent threshold for presidential elections makes unlikely a scenario such as that which ledto Ortega's return to power in neighboring Nicargua. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) BACKGROUND: Salgado,born March 13, 1966 to a family of poor coffee wrkers in Usulutan Department, served 1982-1985 a a non-commissioned officer with the Salvadoran pecial Forces during the country's armed conflict,prior to establishing a successful chain of electical appliance and household goods stores. He was elected Mayor of San Miguel in 2000 on the center-left Christian Democratic Party (PDC) ticket, but switched to the ruling Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA) party before winning reelection in 2003. He later defected to the center-right National Conciliation Party (PCN) prior to winning a third term in March 2006. Salgado's grassroots populism as Mayor of San Miguel has kept his approval ratings remarkably high, but the eccentric mayor's tenure has also been marked by often-bizarre behavior, including a January interview by the Washington Post in which Salgado claimed to have kept a wartime collection of babies' skulls (reftel B). ¶3. (C) In the lead-up to March 2006 Legislative Assembly and municipal elections, Salgado threatened to leave the party unless his sister Sandra Salgado Garcia was tapped as the PCN's Legislative Assembly candidate for San Miguel. Sandra was duly nominated and elected; PCN Secretary General Ciro Cruz Zepeda's resentment at Salgado's power play was exacerbated by the failure of Zepeda's own reelection bid. Salgado further rankled Zepeda and other PCN leaders with a unilateral announcement in September 2006 that he would run for president in 2009 (reftel A). ¶4. (C) In a closed-door June 14 meeting, 11 of the PCN's 15 National Executive Council members voted to expel Salgado for his indisciplined behavior. In an interview the following day, Salgado responded with sharp criticism of Zepeda's leadership of the PCN, and speculated that ARENA had played a role in his expulsion. Salgado's ejection was made official on June 17. PCN Legislative Assembly deputies Elizardo Gonzalez Lovo and Orlando Arevalo quickly expressed their disagreement with Salgado's banishment, and at a closed June 20 beach-resort meeting, a dozen PCN mayors closed ranks behind Salgado and even hinted that they might follow him in affiliating with a new party. ¶5. (C) Following his expulsion, Salgado expressed his wish to take 60 days to think over his political future and consider his options. Rumors immediately surfaced that he would rejoin the PDC, but PDC Legislative Assembly chief Rodolfo Parker outlined to poloff that although Salgado wants to return to the PDC, nothing has been decided, and that indeed both he and Salgado would think things over for two months. Parker related that the added strength Salgado could offer the PDC in the country's eastern region was offset by his unpredictable behavior and persistent rumors of corruption. For their part, FDR leaders traveled to San Miguel June 24 to lunch with Salgado in a clear attempt to recruit him to their ranks. FDR National Coordinator Julio Hernandez explained to poloff that, notwithstanding his lukewarm personal view of Salgado and ideological differences, the San Miguel Mayor would significantly augment the new party's power base, and go far in overcoming its image as mere "leftist light" FMLN malcontents. In bringing along his sister, Salgado would also return an FDR presence to the Legislative Assembly. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: Although it is very unlikely that ARENA had any hand in Salgado's expulsion, they are undoubtedly relieved that he cannot now run for president as a PCN candidate; a 2009 ARENA-PCN coalition looks more likely than ever. President Saca on June 26 publicly suggested that ARENA, the PCN, and the PDC should unite around a single candidate for "freedom and democracy", while the left could put forth a communist candidate; the PDC quickly declined Saca's offer. Given El Salvador's requirement for a 50-percent-plus-one majority vote in presidential elections, Salgado appears to stand virtually no chance of becoming president via either the PDC or FDR, but if he should succeed in throwing the contest into a second round, ARENA and the FMLN will surely beat a path to his door. END COMMENT. Glazer