WHO HAS THE EAR OF THE PRESIDENT? PART 1:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANAA 002196 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/26/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINR YM SUBJECT: WHO HAS THE EAR OF THE PRESIDENT? PART 1: GENERAL OVERVIEW Classified By: Ambassador Stephen A. Seche for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: President Ali Abdullah Saleh holds all decision-making authority within his country. Nonetheless, he relies on an established network of advisors drawn from his family, his tribe, and others, who have one way or another obtained the President's trust and respect. While his family and tribesmen generally constitute his "inner circle," and therefore influence a broad range of policy issues, other individuals are influential only on certain issues and are considered "specialists" by Saleh. This is the first in a series of cables that intends to develop a fuller understanding of who influences Saleh's decision-making and governance. End Summary. Introduction -------------- ¶2. (C) President Ali Abdullah Saleh has been a pillar of the political scene in Yemen since 1978, first as President of the Yemeni Arab Republic (YAR) from 1978 until 1990, and subsequently as President of the newly merged Republic of Yemen from 1990 until the present. In Yemen, as in many other Arab countries, ultimate decision-making authority is concentrated in the hands of the head of state. Although it is unclear to what extent they influence the President's decisions, Saleh has enlisted a cadre of advisors. These advisors range from well-connected (as part of his "inner circle") to tangential (specialists for particular issues only.) The Inner-Most Circle -------------- ¶3. (C) President Saleh's "inner circle" provides advice on all topics, from the economy, to reform, to security and counter-terrorism. This "inner circle" is dominated by family members and fellow Sanhanis. (Note: The term Sanhani refers to people from the Sanhan area of Sana'a. End Note.) These individuals have the ear of the President more than anyone else. According to several of Post's contacts, the members of the "inner circle" include the President's son Ahmad Ali Abdullah Saleh, the Republican Guard commander; presidential nephew Yahya Abdullah Saleh, the Central Security Forces (CSF) commander; nephew Ammar Mohammad Abdullah Saleh, the Deputy Director for the National Security Bureau (NSB); Northwest regional commander Ali Muhsin Al-Ahmar; Southern regional commander Brigadier General (BG) Mahdi Maqwallah; and Eastern regional commander BG Mohammad Ali Muhsin. The President also relies on these individuals to ensure his authority throughout Yemen, and consequently placed these individuals in leadership roles throughout Yemen's military and intelligence apparatus. ¶4. (C) The "inner circle" influences the President on every issue, but is most dominant in the realm of counter-terrorism and security. The President trusts only his family members when it comes to Yemen's security. According to Faris As-Saqqaf, a member of the ruling General People's Congress (GPC),President Saleh created the NSB in 2002 and made his nephew the Deputy Director for the sole purpose of ensuring the President could maintain ultimate control over all security and counter-terrorism activities in Yemen. Saqqaf also noted that Saleh named his nephew, Yahya Saleh, head of the CSF to implement his decisions in the security and CT realm. Finally, Ali Saif, the President of the Yemeni Political Forum, addressed Northwest regional commander Ali Muhsin's role, noting that Muhsin's influence is particularly strong on issues concerning the Saadah Governorate, location of the on-going al-Huthi insurgency, but cautioned against underestimating Muhsin's influence in security issues in the South and counter-terrorist operations in the East. The Outer Circles: Still Close but... -------------- ¶5. (C) In addition to the "inner circle", Saleh also consults with other specialists on particular issues. Worth reinforcing, however, is that ultimately those in his inner circle can and do override any advice Saleh receives from his specialist advisors. Additionally, while Saleh's inner circle has influence on all issues, advisors outside the inner circle typically influence only one area. In general, the President invites these individuals to specific meetings on their area of expertise, solicits their advice on the topics, and then decides what course to pursue. ¶6. (C) Sa'ad Al-Din Talib, a former GPC official and current member of the Supreme National Anti-Corruption Committee, identified several key advisors to Saleh and their specific areas of influence. According to Talib, Shaykh Naji Shayf has served as Saleh's primary advisor on tribal issues since Shaykh Abdullah Al-Ahmar traveled to Saudi Arabia to receive medical treatment in 2006. According to Talib, Saleh had also relied on Al-Ahmar for advice on relations with Saudi Arabia and other regional issues. As yet, Post does not know whether Shayf has assumed the role as advisor for regional issues or if Saleh has identified another individual to fill this void. ¶7. (C) Saqqaf identified Abd Al-Aziz Ghani, the chairman of the Shura Council, as one of Saleh's closest advisors on economic issues. Ghani, who is considered one of the few technocrats with Saleh's ear, also advises the President on administrative issues. Both Saqqaf and Talib also separately agreed that former Prime Minister Abdulkarim al-Eryani has the President's ear on issues related to the United States. Finally, Talib identified former Prime Minister Abdul Qader Bajamal, the Secretary General of the GPC, as Saleh's resident expert on dealing with the opposition, and Assistant Secretary General of the GPC for Media Affairs Sultan SIPDIS Barakani as Saleh's most important advisor on media issues. Implementing Decisions -------------- ¶8. (C) According to Saqqaf, Saleh relies on a network of allies to implement his decisions across Yemen's diverse governorates. Saleh uses these individuals to maintain some semblance of control outside the capital in an effort to mitigate the challenges posed by Yemen's geography and tribal structure. In Hadramout, for example, President Saleh uses Bajamal to help ensure compliance with the central government and maintain basic order. In Aden, Abdullah Ghanim, a Shura Council member, is Saleh's closest ally. Prime Minister Doctor Ali Mujawar and Vice-President Al-Hadi play this role in Shabwa and Abyan Governorates respectively. According to Saqqaf, these individuals have little influence with the President with regards to decision-making but rather take orders from him and implement his decisions. (Note. As per para 7, Talib disagrees about Bajamal, who he feels does have influence with the president on some issues. This serves to highlight that observing Saleh's advisors is an imprecise science. End Note.) In sum, the President relies on them to ensure that the relationships with the local tribes remain on solid footing and the opposition is held in check. ¶9. (C) Comment: Throughout POLOFF's meetings with Yemeni interlocutors, all contacts generally agreed on the individuals in Saleh's inner circle and the influence they wield. As for his "specialists," Post received this piece-meal from numerous contacts, although we assess these advisors as important nonetheless. During the next several months, Post will meet with contacts inside and outside the ROYG to understand in more detail who has the ear of the President. This cable serves as a base-line for this effort, with future cables building on the information provided in this message for each specific category. SECHE