PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR: SALEH 'INCAPABLE' OF GIVING

S E C R E T SANAA 002098

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR D:AMB. NEGROPONTE, S/CT:AMB. DAILEY AND, L
NSC FOR DEPUTY NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR JUAN ZARATE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2017
TAGS: PTER PREL PGOV YM
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR: SALEH 'INCAPABLE' OF GIVING
UP BADAWI

REF: A. SANAA 2096


B. STATE 155898

Classified By: by AMBASSADOR STEPHEN A. SECHE for reasons 1.4 (b),(d)
and (g)


1. (C) Summary. Abdul Karim al-Eryani, a close advisor to
President Ali Abdullah Saleh, told the Ambassador November 16
that Saleh is "incapable" of surrendering convicted USS Cole
perpetrator Jamal al-Badawi to U.S. custody and asserted that
we would do much better to focus our energy on winning
guarantees from Saleh that Badawi will remain incarcerated in
Sana'a for the duration of his sentence. End Summary.


2. (C) During a 45-minute meeting at his Sana'a residence,
former Prime Minister Abdul Karim al-Eryani, a long-time
trusted advisor to President Saleh, told the Ambassador that
USG pressure to gain custody of Jamal al-Badawi misreads
completely Saleh's domestic requirements. Saleh, he said, is
"incapable" of surrendering Badawi to US custody given
Yemen's current political realities. Incentives will not
help, he added.


3. (C) "If Yemen were a dictatorship, that would be one
thing," Eryani observed. "But it has moved too far in the
other direction." Now, he noted, there are a multiplicity of
voices in Yemen that Saleh cannot ignore: opposition
political parties, independent media, and an empowered
judiciary, all of which would be sharply critical of Saleh
were he to move on his own to bypass the Yemeni Constitution
and extradite or otherwise render Badawi to US custody. In
addition, Eryani noted, Yemen is entering its own electoral
season, and Saleh would weaken his ruling party's position
severely by taking decisions that will invite a sharp and
very negative public reaction. "The President is not immune
to public opinion," Eryani said, noting that at present,
opposition newspapers and Internet websites launch daily
attacks against him, especially for his management of the
civil unrest in the south.


4. (C) The "disturbing" political situation in the south
further impedes Saleh's ability to respond to the USG request
for custody of Badawi, according to Eryani. Because Badawi
is a southerner, surrendering him to US custody will further
fuel resentment in a part of the country already in turmoil
because of a perception that northerners like Saleh treat it
with disdain. "The wounds from our civil war" have been
re-opened, and mishandling of the Badawi case would simply
add salt, Eryani said.


5. (C) Eryani insisted that even incarceration of Badawi
for the duration of his sentence is difficult for Saleh, but
added that the President "can be pressured" to do so,
including acceding to our demand that Badawi be jailed in a
Political Security Organiztaion (PSO) facility in Sana,a and
that we be granted on-demand access. To succeed, however,
this message must be delivered to Saleh at every opportunity
by as many senior USG officials as possible so he will
understand there is no wiggle room.


6. (S) Comment. Eryani, perhaps Yemen's premier elder
statesman, is an astute observer of Yemeni politics and the
character of Ali Abdullah Saleh. His observation that Yemen
"has moved too far" down the path of democratic reform for
Saleh to revert to the behavior of the stereotypical Arab
"strong man" appears to us to identify the crux of Saleh's
dilemma in this case ) and our own. We have identified
ourselves closely with efforts to bring about the emergence
of democratic institutions and practices in Yemen, and these
efforts have met with success. It is this very success that
now inhibits Saleh's ability to conduct himself in the
high-handed manner of Arab leaders in less democratic states:
he must be mindful of the reaction of public opinion,
opposition parties and the media they control, and even a
judiciary increasingly prepared to insist on the rule of law.
Pushing Saleh to take a decision that will almost certainly
put him in conflict with these institutions undermines many
of the gains Yemen has posted in recent years, weakening both
a President on whom we depend and a democracy we have worked
so hard to encourage. End Comment.
SECHE