S/P GORDON ENGAGES GOI ON KOSOVO, IRAN,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ROME 002131 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL XF AF IR LE UNAUS KNNP IT SUBJECT: S/P GORDON ENGAGES GOI ON KOSOVO, IRAN, AFGHANISTAN, MEPP, DARFUR, UNSC REFORM, AND CLIMATE CHANGE ROME 00002131 001.2 OF 004 Classified By: Acting Political Minister-Counselor Jonathan R. Cohen fo r reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) S/P Director David Gordon engaged senior GOI officials on Kosovo, Russia, MEPP, Iran, Lebanon, UNSC reform, Darfur, Afghanistan and climate change during October 1 consultations. On Kosovo the Italians said the goal should be a UNSCR, and that the Kosovars should be persuaded to postpone any UDI. Gordon stressed to his interlocutors that the U.S. was committed to achieving real progress from the upcoming MEPP meeting. The Italians emphasized that broad attendance from the region was crucial, that some key countries (Saudi Arabia and Egypt) had expressed doubts about attending, and that Israeli steps to build confidence would help. On Iran, Gordon advocated increasing international pressure through tougher sanctions. The MFA officials said Italy would support a third round of UNSC sanctions but were concerned with the efficacy of the approach and advocated combining sticks with carrots. MFA Political Director Terzi told Gordon Italy was conceptually opposed to new UNSC permanent seats. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Director of Policy Planning S/P, David Gordon met in Rome October 1 with high-level GOI officials to discuss Iran, Kosovo, MEPP, Darfur, Afghanistan, Lebanon/Syria and climate Change. Gordon met with: MFA DG For Europe Laura Mirachian; MFA DG for Mediterranean and Middle East Cesare Ragaglini; MFA DG for Africa Armando Sanguini; MFA DG for Americas Giovanni Verderame; Foreign Policy Advisor to FM D'Alema Marta Dassu; MFA Office Director for Strategic Planning Maurizio Massari; MFA DG for Political and Multilateral Affairs Guilio Terzi; Ministry for Economic Development Vice-DG for Energy Ing. Gilberto Dialuce; and Ministry for Economic Development Diplomatic Advisor Vincenzo De Luca. Kosovo -------------- ¶3. (C) MFA DG for Europe Laura Mirachian said she thought the Contact Group Ministerial in NY had gone well and that the common declaration was a step in the right direction. Mirachian stressed the goal of a UNSCR and emphasized the need to get "as much as possible" in writing, even if we fall short of a comprehensive agreement. Mirachian called Kosovo a question of national security for Italy and speculated the worst case scenario would be, in the absence of a UNSCR, for Kosovo to declare UDI before the EU had united. She noted the key to consensus in the EU will be convincing Spain, Hungary, Greece and Cyprus. ¶4. (C) Mirachian suggested that Kosovo could be de-dramatized over time in much the same way as the Italian case of South Tyrol was when Austria became an EU member. She said the GOI had a model in mind for Kosovo where eventually the entire neighborhood would be "in" the EU and thus the issues of borders etc. would become less polemical. ¶5. (C) Mirachian said the international community could act as a guarantor for non-aggression by both parties - thus effectively freezing the conflict. She suggested one way to get Serbian cooperation might be to offer them some eventual role in the future ESDP Kosovo mission. She noted that she had not yet floated this idea with her EU colleagues. Gordon agreed these were important ideas to explore. Russia: Putin Wants a Strong Russia -------------- ¶6. (C) Mirachian sees Putin considering a basket of issues with which to challenge, and to improve his leverage with, the West in an effort to return Russia to superpower status. He knows he can't be an equal but wants to negotiate from a position of strength. Gordon added that at the same time Russia remains an ally in some areas where we share common goals such as counter-terrorism and non-proliferation. Mirachian noted Putin's top priority was to achieve some element of "common management" over what she described as the "gray area" which runs on a geographic line from Ukraine south, including the Balkans and the Caucasus. According to Mirachian, Putin fundamentally fears NATO encroachment into this "gray area." MEPP - Arab Participation Unsure; Need Israeli Action ROME 00002131 002.2 OF 004 -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Gordon said the U.S. was moving forward on the international meeting scheduled for November, an historic opportunity to make real progress on the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP). He said we hoped for progress in three areas from the conference: the political basket - including a framework laying out a vision for an eventual Palestinian state; the rebuilding of institutions and capabilities of the PA; and improving the daily lives of the Palestinians. He stressed that success in the second area would require significant financial commitments from the international community. ¶8. (C) MFA DG for Middle East, Cesare Ragaglini agreed with Gordon on the significance of the November meeting, adding that managing the differing expectations, which are high in the PA and low in Israel, will be a challenge. FM D'Alema's foreign policy advisor, Dassu, said that Italy sees progress as a priority for its own national security, wants to be included, and wants to be helpful. Ragaglini said Italy was prepared to help convince Arab countries of the need to participate, and noted that the Saudi King would be visiting Rome at the beginning of November. ¶9. (C) Ragaglini said ensuring Arab participation in the conference - especially from Saudi Arabia and Egypt - was essential and that both countries had expressed doubts about attending. Israel should show that it is ready to deliver some results on the regional as well as the bilateral front. He suggested Israel should consider responding to the Arab initiative. Ragaglini, in sentiments echoed by Dassu, said the Arab countries will need concrete results as an incentive to participate, and urged the U.S. to press Israel to deliver. Ragaglini suggested encouraging Israel to freeze all new settlement activity to show that they are serious. Iran: Combining Carrots and Sticks -------------- ¶10. (C) Gordon emphasized U.S. concerns with Iran's nuclear program, and Iran's provocative behavior in Iraq and Afghanistan, and advocated increasing international pressure through support for tougher sanctions. Gordon added that international community resolve had weakened Iranian President Ahmadinejad's position within the Iranian hierarchy. Ragaglini, Dassu and MFA Political Director Terzi all said, in separate meetings, that the GOI shares our concern regarding a nuclear armed Iran but that Italy is worried the current strategy isn't working. All agreed on the need to unite the international community and commented that EU and U.S. action alone was insufficient. Tehran, they said, needs to see the world united, and therefore UNSC action is preferable. Ragaglini said "sanctions never achieve the goal for which they are imposed." He noted sanctions had failed to stop Iran from getting enrichment technology so would be unlikely to prevent them from achieving a nuclear weapons capability. He asked rhetorically how we could achieve that critical and difficult goal. Ragaglini suggested the international community needed a creative solution to move the Iran issue off its current dangerous track. He echoed his minister's suggestion to the Secretary in NY of combining carrots and sticks, offering to SIPDIS negotiate without preconditions, while at the same time passing a third round of tougher UNSC sanctions. Dassu added that in her analysis what Iran is really looking for is to be taken seriously by the U.S. ¶11. (C) Gordon argued that now is not the time to give Iran a face-saving option. He said it is important for Iran to first perceive that the international community is united and ready to increase the pressure. If Iran sensed division or weakness in the international community's resolve, they would have no incentive to change their behavior. ¶12. (C) Ragaglini said there were ultimately only two options on the table: a strict verification regime or a military strike. He noted that both a nuclear armed Iran and a military strike would have devastating consequences. For Italy to be able to eventually support a military strike, he stressed that the Italian public would have to be convinced that the international community had truly exhausted all possible diplomatic options. Political Director Terzi noted that the Italian Ambassador in Moscow reported increased Russian frustration with repeated Iranian refusals to comply with UNSCR 1747. Terzi read this as signaling a possible ROME 00002131 003.2 OF 004 opening by Russia to further UNSC action. Gordon noted the discussion of action outside the UNSC (e.g. EU sanctions) could add support to the UNSC approach by showing China and Russia (and Iran) that we have other options. Lebanon/Syria: Ragaglini Proposes Opening Toward Syria -------------- -------------- ¶13. (C) Gordon noted that the role of Syria in Lebanon, particularly the use of assassination as a political weapon, was absolutely unacceptable. Ragaglini agreed and said the problem is that the Syrians still think of Lebanon as a Syrian province. He said the international community needed to find a way to de-couple Syria and Iran. He suggested opening up to Syria in order to bring them to "our side." He advocated getting Israel to offer the Golan Heights and the U.S. to assure that we were not seeking "regime change," in return for Syrian support for a sovereign Lebanon free of Syrian interference. UNSC Reform -------------- ¶14. (C) MFA DG for Political and Multilateral Affairs Guilio Terzi was eager to engage Gordon on the topic UNSC reform. He lamented the difficulty of the UNSC to handle issues of crucial importance and noted it would get more difficult to discuss such issues if countries such as South Africa, Brasil or India were to have a permanent seat. Terzi said the GOI could not support a seat for any other EU country and that to do so could have disastrous effects for an eventual EU common foreign policy. Conceptually, he said, Italy opposes new permanent seats. Terzi said the GOI would support creative suggestions to UNSC reform including looking at formulas for non-permanent membership which might be eligible after 10 years for permanent membership (subject to a vote in the GA.) ¶15. (C) Gordon agreed that composition of the UNSC is one of the most challenging issues facing the international community. He explained that the U.S. position remains in support of a UNSC seat for Japan and an openness in principle to further enlargement as appropriate. Gordon said the U.S. firmly believes the permanent UNSC members should reflect the most capable countries in the international community and that the UNSC should not be a place to reflect regional interests. Gordon added that any decisions on UNSC reform must reflect broad consensus and be consistent in retaining the character of the UNSC and its functions. Darfur -------------- ¶16. (C) In his meeting on Sudan with MFA Director General for Sub-Saharan Africa Armando Sanguini, Gordon said our priority must be the full, rapid deployment of UNAMID. Sanguini said Italy shares U.S. concerns about the deteriorating situation in Darfur, illustrated by the recent attack on AU forces, and solving the crisis will require action on three fronts: security, political reconciliation, and addressing root sources of conflict (e.g. access to natural resources). While we must urge all rebels to participate in the Tripoli talks (which he said should retain the format of previous Tripoli talks),we must also define a clear position towards those who refuse to participate in that dialogue. Responding to Gordon's inquiry about contributing to UNAMID, Sanguini said Italy would offer air assets and training. Afghanistan -------------- ¶17. (C) Gordon told his interlocutors he was concerned that the Afghans believe international support is waning. He said now is the time for the international community to firm-up long term commitments to ensure the Afghan population that we are there to stay. Terzi agreed and said Italy had appreciated being able to participate in the recent coordination meeting in Washington. The GOI supported the U.S. proposal for a high-level Special Representative to Afghanistan who can both coordinate the various efforts on the ground while also ramping up the profile of the effort. MFA Policy Planning Director Maurizio Massari shared Gordon's concern and said the GOI was considering proposing an international conference next year to evaluate the Afghanistan Compact at its mid-point. He suggested such a conference might be an opportunity to reflect together on how ROME 00002131 004.2 OF 004 best to increase Afghan ownership and capacity. Gordon said it was a proposal worth exploring further. Climate Change & Energy -------------- ¶18. (C) S/P Gordon and Ministry of Economic Development Diplomatic Advisor Vincenzo De Luca discussed Italy,s slow economic growth, energy policy and views towards international cooperation on climate change. De Luca said that Italy,s growth was lagging behind other European countries due to Italy,s reliance on textile, food, design and industrial exports ) all sectors that face stiff competition from China and India. Two bright spots were, according to De Luca, recent growth in textile exports and Fiat,s return from bankruptcy. De Luca acknowledged that while progress has been made on reducing Italy,s debt, Italy,s large public expenditures would be difficult to reduce further. Turning to energy policy, De Luca provided an optimistic overview of Italy,s plans to decrease reliance on Russian oil and gas and highlighted new construction projects, but cautioned that so-called Not In My Backyard-ism (NIMBYism) may delay their plans. Gordon shared with De Luca, Dassu, MFA Americas DG Verderame and Massari (in separate meetings) his thoughts on where climate change negotiations are headed, including the focus on new technology, targets and a mechanism to ensure governments abide by their commitments. De Luca agreed with USG priorities, but encouraged quick action and said that he believed international agreements should be put in place by 2009. ¶19. (U) This cable has been cleared by S/P. SPOGLI