ITALY: SANNINO ON KOSOVO, IRAN, MEPP, SYRIA -

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 001842 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2017 TAGS: PREL UNSC KV IR IS WE SY JO IT SUBJECT: ITALY: SANNINO ON KOSOVO, IRAN, MEPP, SYRIA - SEEKS INCENTIVES FOR SERBS, SEES PROGRESS WITH IRAN, SUPPORTS ABBAS, SHARA TO VISIT ROME ROME 00001842 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: AMBASSADOR RONALD SPOGLI, REASONS 1.4 B and D. SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C/NF) In a wide-ranging conversation over breakfast August 29, the Ambassador discussed Kosovo, Iran, Hamas and Syria with the PM's Senior Diplomatic Advisor (National Security Advisor-Equivalent) Stefano Sannino. Sannino agreed that a UNSCR on Kosovo was unlikely and suggested that the international community's response to a unilateral declaration of independence include a package of incentives to keep Serbia from responding negatively. He assured the Ambassador that Italy would continue to apply faithfully sanctions against Iran, doubted that Russia would agree to additional Iran sanctions, and believed that the IAEA was making real progress. Sannino said Italy clearly wanted to support Palestinian President Abbas, but above all wanted to avoid a permanent split among the Palestinian people. He expressed concern that the debate between Fatah and Hamas was more heated than that between Hamas and Israel. Sannino informed the Ambassador that Syrian Vice President Shara would visit Rome September 6. The Ambassador cautioned that such a visit would send an unhelpful message to Damascus by welcoming a senior Syrian official to a major western capital without the GOS having taken actions to merit such a reward. End Summary. Kosovo - Hug the Serbs to Keep Them Still -------------- ¶2. (C/NF) The Ambassador met PM Prodi's Senior Diplomatic Advisor Stefano Sannino over breakfast August 29. Sannino agreed that no progress had been made on Kosovo in the dialogue between the parties and that a UNSC resolution was unlikely. He said Italy was focused on all the non-status issues with an eye to improving the quality of life for minorities. To prepare a response to the expected unilateral declaration of independence, Sannino suggested developing a strong package of incentives for Serbia, "smothering the Serbs with love" so Belgrade does not move negatively in response to a UDI. He saw the main challenges in developing a common EU position coming from Hungary, Slovenia, Slovakia and Romania, and said he tells colleagues from those governments that they may not like the path being planned for Kosovo, but that the alternatives are worse and they should support the path to Kosovo's independence as the lesser of two evils. When the Ambassador asked where FM D'Alema stood on Kosovo, Sannino replied that the FM was less firm on independence, but understood that ultimately the question needed a practical solution, and that a mechanism had to be found to move forward and confer legal legitimacy on the outcome. Iran - Moving in the Right Direction? -------------- ¶3. (C/NF) Turning to Iran, Sannino assured the Ambassador that Italy would continue to faithfully apply required sanctions against Iran, but hoped that there would soon be a "freeze" on both sides (Iranian suspension of activity and UN suspension of sanctions). Sannino doubted that Russia would agree to any additional Iran sanctions. He said Italian information suggested that the Iranians had slowed down development of their nuclear program while the conversation with the IAEA was taking place, and that Italy hoped the IAEA would soon be able to conduct genuine inspections. He thought we were close to reaching a more positive position with Iran on the nuclear issue. The Ambassador noted U.S. concern that Iran would open just enough to get the IAEA in the door, but not enough to let the IAEA confirm an end to nuclear enrichment activity. Hamas - Support Abbas, Avoid Split Among Palestinians -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C/NF) Sannino stressed that Italy wanted to support Palestinian President Abbas, that the GOI had taken pains to clarify PM Prodi's recent comments about dialogue with Hamas in such a way as to make this clear, and that Italy's actions would continue to demonstrate its support for Abbas. However, Italy wanted to help avoid the creation of a permanent split within the Palestinian population. He was ROME 00001842 002.2 OF 002 concerned that the debate between Hamas and Fatah was more heated than that between Hamas and Israel. The Ambassador replied that the Palestinian people needed to decide what course to take. The U.S. hoped they would choose Fatah as the moderate voice in the debate, and the one that is getting and will continue to get international support. The challenge was to convert international support into broader support from the Palestinians themselves. Syria's Shara to Visit Rome Sept. 6 -------------- ¶5. (C/NF) When Sannino informed the Ambassador that Syrian Vice President Farouk al-Shara would visit Rome September 6, the Ambassador forcefully said that such a visit would send Damascus the wrong message. Sannino replied that Italy did not believe Syria was so far gone that it could not be brought in as a positive force. The Ambassador reiterated that Syria needed to change its bad behavior before being rewarded with senior-level visits to important western capitals. Finally, Sannino said he and PM Prodi would visit Jordan September 1-2. SPOGLI