KING ABDULLAH ANNOUNCES NO CABINET CHANGES- DOES

S E C R E T RIYADH 000631 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/28/2027 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SA SUBJECT: KING ABDULLAH ANNOUNCES NO CABINET CHANGES- DOES HE MEAN IT? REF: RIYADH 36 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Michael Gfoeller for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (U) King Abdullah issued a decree on March 22 extending the term of the entire Council of Ministers for four years and preserving their current portfolios. Media reported positively on this announcement generally commenting that it supports political stability in the Kingdom. The media also cited political and economic analysts who stated that the continuity of the ministers would "serve as a boost to the Kingdom's five year plans as well as numerous economic city projects." Overall the press praised the King's decision, though it made no reference to previous rumors of proposed massive changes to the Cabinet or gave any indication or insight as to the reasons behind the King's decision. ¶2. (C) Despite the King's announcement, some government officials do not believe it to be a lasting decision. A Saudi member of the General Secretariat of the Supreme Economic Council -- which is part of the Royal Diwan, the advisory body to the King -- told PolOff on March 24 that the recent announcement that the Cabinet will stay the same is a ruse. He noted that although the English language papers reported that the retention of the cabinet is for four years, the Arabic language press specifically did not mention a timeline. This contact claimed that his office went "crazy" after hearing the news and thinks that there will be a new announcement immediately following the Arab League Summit. He also said that Secretary General of the Supreme Economic Council and head of Capital Monetary Authority (CMA) Twaijeri fears losing his job. He continued that everyone in the government is "on edge" waiting for the next announcement. He reiterated that the March 22 announcement was a total surprise and, in his opinion, the fact that the King said there would be no changes means that everyone will change-- and soon. Other Saudi interlocutors have also expressed surprise at the announcement and generally predict a second round of announcements. ¶3. (C) There are also rumors that the King's decision to retain the Cabinet is the result of a conflict with Crown Prince Sultan. Earlier in the day on March 22, King Abdullah announced the return of Crown Prince Sultan to the Kingdom. He later followed this announcement with his decision to retain the current Cabinet - despite strong rumors to the contrary. (NOTE: Sources state that calls were made to determine the suitability of specific individuals identified as potential candidates for some positions. END NOTE.) According to some Saudi interlocutors, this timeline may suggest that the King and Crown Prince were unable to agree on key position changes and, therefore, the King opted to avoid any conflict or rumors at such a significant time as the Arab League Summit. ¶4. (S) COMMENT: Many of our Saudi interlocutors continue to agree with previous assessments (reftel) that a thorough-going change of the Cabinet should be expected. The King's decision to retain the current Cabinet for an additional four years came as a very big surprise to most observers here, given the questionable performance of some ministers, the controversy stirred up by others, and the poor health of Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al Faisal. Due to the SAG's renewed focus on the Arab Peace Initiative and Saudi Arabia's expanding role as the key arbiter of regional conflicts, it is uncertain when that announcement will occur. We believe that the SAG will defer any significant changes to the Cabinet for the time being to help ensure domestic stability while it heightens efforts to address the Arab/Israeli conflict and other regional crises. END COMMENT. OBERWETTER