SAUDI OFFICIALS DID NOT WANT NAWAZ SHARIF TO

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 RIYADH 001886

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT PLEASE PASS TO NEA/ARP FOR RJACHIM/SRAMESH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2027
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR PK SA
SUBJECT: SAUDI OFFICIALS DID NOT WANT NAWAZ SHARIF TO
RETURN TO PAKISTAN

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Michael Gfoeller for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).


1. (U) The SAUDI press has run several front page news items
in the past week clarifying its position regarding the return
of exiled former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to Pakistan --
which took place on September 10, 2007. (NOTE: Developing
news reports indicate that Sharif was arrested shortly after
his arrival to Pakistan and deported back to SAUDI Arabia.
According to these sources, Sharif has already arrived in
Jeddah. END NOTE.) The English language Arab News published
a report on September 5 denying that the Saudis backed the
return of Sharif and his family to Pakistan. (NOTE: Sharif
was released into exile in SAUDI ARABIA following his
conviction for hijacking and terrorism. END NOTE.) The
article stated that the SAG expects Sharif to "abide by his
pledge of not returning to Pakistan and politics." On
September 9, many SAUDI dailies -- both English and Arabic
language -- ran the headline "Sharif Asked to Honor Deal."
These articles reported on the press conference following the
meeting of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, Lebanese
leader Saad Al-Hariri, and General Intelligence Presidency
Head Prince Muqrin bin Abdul Aziz regarding the Sharif case.


2. (U) Prince Muqrin used the press conference to urge
Sharif to refrain from returning to Pakistan from London,
where he currently resides. According to the Arab News,
Muqrin stated, "We are hoping, we are really hoping,
sincerely hoping, His Excellency Nawaz Sharif honors this
agreement," referring to the "secret" agreement he held in
his hand that he said was signed by both Sharif and Custodian
of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz. He
expressed hope that "...for the sake of Pakistan's national
interest, all parties concerned with the agreement will honor
and adhere to its terms." Muqrin acknowledged the Supreme
Court ruling that stated Sharif has the "inalienable right"
to return to Pakistan; however, he said the agreement must
also be "respected and honored."


3. (S) Syed Zahir Raza (strictly protect),Second Secretary
at the Pakistani Embassy, told PolOff on September 9 that,
while Sharif,s return may lead to disorder in the
Government, "disorder in the Government does not equal
disorder in the state." He added that recent street
protests are a "new phenomenon" and he does not predict mass
rioting. Raza noted that the SAG has limited control of
Sharif, pointing out that, as the owner of a number of
business enterprises in the Kingdom, he is not financially
dependent on SAG largesse. However, Raza said the SAG does
favor Sharif over former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto -- and
Sharif knows it. Raza continued that he does not think that
Sharif,s breaking of the agreement he made to refrain from
political activity and not return to Pakistan will be taken
personally by the SAG. However, he did note that SAG and
Musharraf may be "on the same frequency" with regard to the
agreement, while Sharif,s interpretation is more flexible.
He said there are rumors that the agreement was only for five
years.


4. (C) Talal Attar, Counselor of MFA's Asia Department, told
PolOff on September 10 that, officially, the SAG's position
regarding Sharif is one of "non-interference." However, he
noted that he had just watched Al-Arabiya coverage of
Sharif's removal from Pakistan. He said there were reports
that the SAG sent an aircraft to Pakistan to collect Sharif.
Because of this, he said, there is still room for cooperation
since, technically, the agreement was not broken. He added
that if Sharif were to stay in Pakistan, it would result in
problems for the Pakistani government.


5. (C) COMMENT: As the guarantor for Sharif's release into
exile, SAUDI ARABIA clearly wants him to comply with the
agreement he signed to refrain from returning to Pakistan
until 2010. Despite Raza's suggestion to the contrary, King
Abdullah does not take kindly to those who break an oath --
as evidenced by his response to the renewed fighting between
Hamas and Fatah after they vowed to refrain from further
violence against each other. Hence, it is not surprising
that he would direct Prince Muqrin to take a very strong
public stand on this issue. It is unheard of for the head of
the SAG's intelligence organization to publicly refer to any
secret dealings, which leads us to believe that the Saudis

SIPDIS
are extremely concerned about Sharif's plans and recognize
the potential consequences of his return to Pakistan. The
Saudis have gone out of their way to support Musharraf --
there has been a great deal of interaction between the Saudis

RIYADH 00001886 002 OF 002


and the Pakistanis over the past year, in addition to an
evolving arms supply relationship. Additionally, Pakistanis
in the Kingdom account for a large part of the labor force.
The Saudis would have much to lose by Sharif's return to
Pakistan and the potentially destabilizing results. SAG
officials consistently worry that any regional
destabilization would provide further opportunity for Iran to
expand its influence -- in this case, particularly through
Pakistan's Shi'a minority. However, despite their concerns,
it appears that the Saudis, who clearly have a vested
interest in a stable Pakistan, have limited influence over
Sharif. Post will continue to track this case and the SAG's
reaction to Sharif's return to SAUDI Arabia. END COMMENT.
FRAKER