SAUDI OFFICIALS DID NOT WANT NAWAZ SHARIF TO

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 RIYADH 001886 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT PLEASE PASS TO NEA/ARP FOR RJACHIM/SRAMESH E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2027 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR PK SA SUBJECT: SAUDI OFFICIALS DID NOT WANT NAWAZ SHARIF TO RETURN TO PAKISTAN Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Michael Gfoeller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (U) The Saudi press has run several front page news items in the past week clarifying its position regarding the return of exiled former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to Pakistan -- which took place on September 10, 2007. (NOTE: Developing news reports indicate that Sharif was arrested shortly after his arrival to Pakistan and deported back to Saudi Arabia. According to these sources, Sharif has already arrived in Jeddah. END NOTE.) The English language Arab News published a report on September 5 denying that the Saudis backed the return of Sharif and his family to Pakistan. (NOTE: Sharif was released into exile in Saudi Arabia following his conviction for hijacking and terrorism. END NOTE.) The article stated that the SAG expects Sharif to "abide by his pledge of not returning to Pakistan and politics." On September 9, many Saudi dailies -- both English and Arabic language -- ran the headline "Sharif Asked to Honor Deal." These articles reported on the press conference following the meeting of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, Lebanese leader Saad Al-Hariri, and General Intelligence Presidency Head Prince Muqrin bin Abdul Aziz regarding the Sharif case. ¶2. (U) Prince Muqrin used the press conference to urge Sharif to refrain from returning to Pakistan from London, where he currently resides. According to the Arab News, Muqrin stated, "We are hoping, we are really hoping, sincerely hoping, His Excellency Nawaz Sharif honors this agreement," referring to the "secret" agreement he held in his hand that he said was signed by both Sharif and Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz. He expressed hope that "...for the sake of Pakistan's national interest, all parties concerned with the agreement will honor and adhere to its terms." Muqrin acknowledged the Supreme Court ruling that stated Sharif has the "inalienable right" to return to Pakistan; however, he said the agreement must also be "respected and honored." ¶3. (S) Syed Zahir Raza (strictly protect),Second Secretary at the Pakistani Embassy, told POLOFF on September 9 that, while Sharif,s return may lead to disorder in the Government, "disorder in the Government does not equal disorder in the state." He added that recent street protests are a "new phenomenon" and he does not predict mass rioting. Raza noted that the SAG has limited control of Sharif, pointing out that, as the owner of a number of business enterprises in the Kingdom, he is not financially dependent on SAG largesse. However, Raza said the SAG does favor Sharif over former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto -- and Sharif knows it. Raza continued that he does not think that Sharif,s breaking of the agreement he made to refrain from political activity and not return to Pakistan will be taken personally by the SAG. However, he did note that SAG and Musharraf may be "on the same frequency" with regard to the agreement, while Sharif,s interpretation is more flexible. He said there are rumors that the agreement was only for five years. ¶4. (C) Talal Attar, Counselor of MFA's Asia Department, told PolOff on September 10 that, officially, the SAG's position regarding Sharif is one of "non-interference." However, he noted that he had just watched Al-Arabiya coverage of Sharif's removal from Pakistan. He said there were reports that the SAG sent an aircraft to Pakistan to collect Sharif. Because of this, he said, there is still room for cooperation since, technically, the agreement was not broken. He added that if Sharif were to stay in Pakistan, it would result in problems for the Pakistani government. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: As the guarantor for Sharif's release into exile, Saudi Arabia clearly wants him to comply with the agreement he signed to refrain from returning to Pakistan until 2010. Despite Raza's suggestion to the contrary, King Abdullah does not take kindly to those who break an oath -- as evidenced by his response to the renewed fighting between Hamas and Fatah after they vowed to refrain from further violence against each other. Hence, it is not surprising that he would direct Prince Muqrin to take a very strong public stand on this issue. It is unheard of for the head of the SAG's intelligence organization to publicly refer to any secret dealings, which leads us to believe that the Saudis SIPDIS are extremely concerned about Sharif's plans and recognize the potential consequences of his return to Pakistan. The Saudis have gone out of their way to support Musharraf -- there has been a great deal of interaction between the Saudis RIYADH 00001886 002 OF 002 and the Pakistanis over the past year, in addition to an evolving arms supply relationship. Additionally, Pakistanis in the Kingdom account for a large part of the labor force. The Saudis would have much to lose by Sharif's return to Pakistan and the potentially destabilizing results. SAG officials consistently worry that any regional destabilization would provide further opportunity for Iran to expand its influence -- in this case, particularly through Pakistan's Shi'a minority. However, despite their concerns, it appears that the Saudis, who clearly have a vested interest in a stable Pakistan, have limited influence over Sharif. Post will continue to track this case and the SAG's reaction to Sharif's return to Saudi Arabia. END COMMENT. FRAKER