E-PINE POLITICAL DIRECTORS, MEETING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RIGA 000873 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2017 TAGS: PREL ENRG RS GG MD BO BK LG SUBJECT: E-PINE POLITICAL DIRECTORS, MEETING Classified By: Charge d'affaires a.i., Stuart M. Seldowitz. Reason: 1. 4 (b and d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. The fall meeting of the e-PINE Political Directors was held October 26 in Riga, Latvia. Political Directors from seven Nordic and Baltic nations met with EUR Assistant Secretary Daniel Fried to compare notes on the countries that make up e-PINE,s core focus: Georgia, Moldova, Belarus, and Ukraine. In addition, participants discussed issues of common concern such as Russia and Kosovo. The political directors agreed that Ukraine needs to be build an effective coalition quickly, that Belarus needs to make more progress on human rights and democracy before e-PINE countries can engage further, and that Georgia's orientation towards the West should be encouraged. Russia,s relations with most e-PINE countries are still difficult. Finally, e-PINE PolDirs agreed that it is important to support talks in Kosovo up to December 10, but no further unless a solution is imminent. END SUMMARY. -------------- RUSSIA -------------- ¶2. (C) Latvian PolDir Ilgvars Klava noted that bilateral relations with Russia were developing and that there had been some progress in the past few months, particularly the recent ratification of the Latvia-Russia border treaty in Moscow. A/S Fried noted that the U.S. was trying to make progress with Russia in strategic areas, such as CFE and MD, and was making efforts to maintain positives in the relationship. ¶3. (C) A/S Fried gave a readout on recent bilateral meetings with Russia in Berlin and Moscow. In Moscow, Russian FM Lavrov told Secretary Rice that it might be possible for Russia to rescind its threat to withdraw from CFE. Fried said that, in Berlin, the U.S. responded to Russian questions regarding the "action for action" plan, the flank regime, the Istanbul Commitments as regards Moldova and Georgia, and Baltic and Slovenian accession to CFE. Fried rejected the Russian request that the flank regime no longer apply to Russia. The Russians expressed an interest in consulting bilaterally with the Balts on provisions for joining the CFE. A/S Fried said he responded that he felt the Balts would prefer to discuss issues with the U.S. and NATO first and that he would be surprised if they wanted bilateral discussions with Russia (an assessment all three Baltic PolDirs affirmed). Fried had noted that no formal or binding agreements would be made before December 12th. It was still uncertain whther Russia would agree to the U.S. proposals or suspend the treaty. ¶4. (C) Participants agreed that dealing with Russia bilaterally worked to Russia,s benefit; it was best to try and deal with Russia from a position of strength and unity. The upcoming presidential and Duma elections would be important and would be watched with interest. Swedish PolDir Lyrvall noted that Russia might not accept the Swedes or the Finns as election observers, finding them "too biased." -------------- UKRAINE -------------- ¶5. (C) Participants generally thought that the recent elections had been relatively free and fair. The Ukrainians needed to move forward on setting up an effective governing coalition, regardless of "color," that could make needed reforms and end the stagnation of the past year-and-a-half. Political directors agreed that Ukraine needs to know it has options other than Russia. For that to happen, Europe and the U.S. need to engage Ukraine. A/S Fried noted that the successful democratization of Ukraine is particularly important since Russia cannot dismiss or belittle Ukraine's progress as it can Georgia's or that of the Baltics. The Russians perceive a reformed Ukraine with strong ties to the West as a threat. ¶6. (C) Participants agreed that while Ukraine is making progress, it needs to become more responsible for itself. In particular, Ukraine needs to make more of an effort on economic, constitutional, and judicial reforms, and energy efficiency. Energy is proving to be a corrupting influence in Ukraine, and the Ukrainians need to waste less. The more quickly they can reach market prices for energy, the better. -------------- RIGA 00000873 002 OF 003 MOLDOVA -------------- ¶7. (C) PolDirs generally agreed that EUBAM is a success story. Further, they thought that a common EU position on Moldova would be helpful vis-a-vis the Russians. In addition to problems with Russia, the Romanian-Moldovan conflicts created complications for dealing with Moldova. Fried noted that Voronin is inconsistent regarding the future of Moldova and that he needs to push internal reforms more. ¶8. (C) Swedish PolDir Lyrvall said he had just returned from Moldova and reported that Russia was making some progress in accepting the Moldovan position. He felt that the ideas the Moldovans had presented to the Russians were good and might form the basis for an eventual agreement. The Moldovan proposal included: Transnistrian autonomy; Moldovan neutrality; the ratification of CFE on the departure of Russian peacekeepers; and civilian observer missions from the OSCE that could contain some non-military Russians. -------------- BELARUS -------------- ¶9. (C) Participants felt that Belarus needs to make more progress on human rights and democracy if it is interested in having better relations with Europe. Sweden's Lyrvall said there might be a need to examine the European position to see if it is the right one, however. Lithuanian PolDir Navikas took a somewhat harder line, suggesting that adding sanctions against the family members of sanctioned officials might be one direction to take (with which Norway,s Eide disagreed). A/S Fried noted that, although the U.S would welcome better relations with Belarus, we needed a "down payment," such as the release of political prisoners, before that could become a reality. He added that the U.S is willing to expand civil society contacts and engage mid-level officials more while maintaining pressure on the upper levels of the regime, measures with which participants agreed. Next year,s elections (October 2008) will require careful scrutiny. ¶10. (C) The Belarusian economic situation, especially as it relates to fuel prices, was noted. Gas prices are due to rise to market levels by 2012, and participants were uncertain what effect this would have on Lukashenka,s regime in the short or long terms. -------------- GEORGIA -------------- ¶11. (C) Political directors thought it good to encourage Georgia's European orientation. A/S Fried noted that dealing with Georgia is becoming more difficult due to its current chilly relations with Russia. He added that, should Russia recognize Abkhazia, this should not be a cost-free decision for Russia; all should support diplomatic approaches to Georgia's frozen conflicts. Latvian PolDir Klava thought that sending experts groups to investigate the missile incident had been a good thing, especially since Russia had not expected it and had been unsure how to react. ¶12. (C) In general, there was agreement on support of MAP for Georgia, although Norway's PolDir Eide noted that NATO was divided between those who thought MAP could hinder resolution of the frozen conflicts and those who thought it could help. A/S Fried noted that the U.S. does not believe MAP is the only way forward; we should treat Georgia as is warranted by its own progress. -------------- KOSOVO, BOSNIA -------------- ¶13. (C) A/S Fried said that it was very important to offer complete support for the Troika up until December 10. He praised Wolfgang Ischinger's work and said that the deal currently on the table was good, though he did not think that the Serbs would support it. Fried added, however, that December 10 has to be viewed as a firm deadline; although he did not think that the Kosovars would declare independence that day, the process could not be allowed to drag out. He said that the U.S was unhappy with developments in Bosnia and that RS PM Dodik needed to be made aware that there would be repercussions should he continue to threaten the security of the Balkans. Norwegian PolDir Eide agreed and noted that the Serbs had informed him while he was in Belgrade that the presidential elections had been moved up yet again and would RIGA 00000873 003 OF 003 possibly be held as early as December 9. ¶14. (U) Participants: U.S. EUR A/S Daniel Fried Embassy Riga DCM Stuart Seldowitz Embassy Riga Pol/Econ Chief Tamir Waser e-PINE Coordinator Julie-Anne Peterson (notetaker) DENMARK Political Director Lise Lotte Plesner William Boe, Head of Section, MFA ESTONIA Political Director Aivo Orav Ly Metsis, First Secretary, Embassy of Estonia Reen Liivat, Second Secretary, U.S. and e-PINE Officer FINLAND Political Director Pilvi-Sisko Vierros Miia Lahti, Second Secretary, MFA ICELAND No participation LATVIA Political Director Ilgvars Klava Liga Andersone, Head of East Europe and Central Asia Division Vineta Mekone, Head of Russia Division Zane Petre, First Secretary, European Correspondent LITHUANIA Acting Political Director Egidijus Navikas Andrius Krivas, Head of NATO Division Natalija Burbiene, Counselor of the Embassy of Lithuania NORWAY Political Director Kai Eide Gyrid Celius, Adviser, Section for Global Security Issues and CIS Countries SWEDEN Director General for Political Affairs Bjorn Lyrvall Malena Mard, Director, Deputy Head of the Department for Eastern Europe and Central Asia Joakim Lofvendahl, First Secretary, Embassy of Sweden ¶15. (U) A/S Fried cleared this cable. SELDOWITZ