A/S FRIED'S VISIT TO RIGA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 RIGA 000865 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR MOPS NATO RS LG SUBJECT: A/S FRIED'S VISIT TO RIGA Classified By: Charge d'affaires a.i. Stuart M. Seldowitz. Reason: 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: CFE and domestic political developments were key topics in the visit of EUR A/S Dan Fried to Riga October 25 - 26. The Latvians warmly welcomed his assurance that on CFE the USG would pursue a policy of "nothing about you without you" in talking with Moscow and that any consultations with Russia on Baltic accession to CFE would only come after discussions within NATO. On domestic politics, A/S Fried heard a number of theories on what was behind recent developments in Latvia and concerns by some political leaders about the role Ambassador Bailey's recent anti-corruption speech had played in the current situation. Latvian interlocutors expressed strong support for MAP for Georgia at Bucharest, enlargement of NATO by three countries (if they meet performance standards),and continued support for the ISAF mission. On Russia, A/S Fried strongly praised Latvian efforts to improve bilateral relations, including the signing of the Latvia/Russia border treaty, and provided his views on the difficulties of managing a transition in an authoritarian country. The Latvians also raised their desire not to be left behind as we move forward on expansion of the visa waiver program. End summary. ¶2. (U) EUR A/S Dan Fried visited Latvia October 25 and 26 for the purpose of attending a meeting of political directors from Nordic and Baltic countries in the e-PINE format. In addition to the e-Pine meetings (septel),Fried met with Latvian President Zatlers, PM Kalvitis, FM Pabriks (on his last day in the office),MFA State Secretary Penke, and MOD State Secretary Rinkevics. He also met the leadership of the Latvian anti-corruption bureau, KNAB, and had a roundtable with academic experts and a number of press interviews. Charge and pol/econ chief (notetaker) accompanied throughout. CFE -------------- ¶3. (C) Having just come from a meeting in Berlin with Russian arms control negotiator Antonov, CFE was a major topic on the visit. A/S Fried outlined in all meetings with GOL officials that Antonov had expressed a desire for early consultations with the Baltic states on their accession to the A/CFE treaty. Fried explained that he was clear with Antonov - the Balts would first have the opportunity to consult within NATO before talking with the Russians and that the Baltics could have anyone else from the alliance in the room with them when they engaged in talks with Moscow. Antonov said he understood both points. Fried cautioned that continued Russian intransigence on the flanks and the political environment meant that Moscow could well move ahead with its "suspension" of the treaty on December 12, but that he wanted to show that the Allies had attempted to meet Russian concerns in good faith. ¶4. (C) All Latvian officials welcomed these assurances that there would be no talks about them without them and that there would be consultations within NATO before going to the Russians. They also showed some flexibility from previous positions with MOD State Secretary Rinkevics hinting that the Latvians were willing to drop their insistence on the use of the term "contingency planning" at NATO, provided they got political consultations and that any numbers developed for their national and territorial ceilings be based on military analysis of the potential threats to Latvian security and the response that would be needed to meet those threats. (Note: MFA State Secretary Penke continued to use that term, but we believe Rinkevics more accurately reflects GOL policy on this issue. End note.) Rinkevics later, in conjunction with MFA poldir Klava, proposed that PM Kalvitis, during his upcoming visit to Washington, raise with Secretary Rice a request for bilateral U.S. assistance in developing these plans and analysis to inform Latvian thinking on CFE. Fried supported the idea, while noting it might make sense to do it with all three Baltic States jointly, which Rinkevics seemed open to doing. In his meeting with Penke, Fried noted that it was ironic that Russian demands on greater specificity from the Baltics on CFE would actually force more discussion within NATO of how to defend the Baltics and we should think how to play on this for our advantage. Russia and Energy -------------- ¶5. (C) PM Kalvitis briefed Fried with evident pride on his success at "restarting a political dialogue" with Russia over the past two years, recalling his various meetings with then-PM Fradkhov and President Putin. The Latvia-Russia border treaty was the capstone of this process and the PM hoped that instruments of ratification would be exchanged soon. Fried expressed strong U.S. support for the treaty and that it did nothing to alter our view of the continuity of the Latvian state. Kalvitis predicted that energy would be the main political issue in the Baltics in the next 10 - 20 RIGA 00000865 002 OF 004 years. To date, relations with Russia on energy had been good, but looking at Ukraine, Belarus and Georgia he could see how it could easily change. Latvia and its neighbors need to diversify energy supplies and reduce reliance on Russia. In this context, he lamented that "Lithuania is playing games with Poland" over the construction of a new nuclear plant to replace Ignalina. ¶6. (C) MFA State Secretary Penke, highlighting improvements in the bilateral relationship with Russia, said he wanted to get Moscow to see that Latvia is stable and solidly in the NATO and EU camps. This would ease Russian pressure on Latvian internal issues, he said. EU integration would draw Latvia's Russian population away from Moscow and give them a greater stake in Latvia. Business interests would still be a draw to the east, though. FM Pabriks also raised concern about Russian economic influence in Latvia saying he didn't want to see Latvia "fall back" to old relationships with Moscow. Fried noted that he had discussed with the Hungarians a committee, modeled on what we have in the U.S., to scrutinize foreign investments in strategic sectors as a way to address Latvian concerns in this area. ¶7. (C) Penke also asked what role Russia was playing on Iran. Fried said it was unclear. Russia seemed to be staking some sort of middle ground; not fully with the rest of the international community, but not fully on the side of the Iranians. Penke said that sensed "great nervousness" among EU FM's on Iran at the October GAERC, which he attended. ¶8. (C) In a somewhat different approach, President Zatlers expressed concern about Russian intentions in Latvia saying "we are aware of Russia's interest in destabilizing us" and saying that Russia had been unusually quiet in recent months, which he found very disturbing. Fried noted that Latvia is much stronger now and Russia seemed more focused on Georgia. Nevertheless, he stressed that Russia uses corruption, money and oligarchs to influence policy in other countries, so the best way to address this was to have strong institutions. Visas -------------- ¶9. (C) Latvia's hope that it will be able to join the visa waiver program quickly was raised in most of Fried's meetings. PM Kalvitis said it was a political question and there was some competition among the Baltic States on this issue. He said that rumors that Estonia would be admitted first caused concern and followed on Canada's 2006 decision to waive visas for Estonians ahead of the other Balts. Penke also raised it, saying that Latvia hoped it could "move forward" with the other central European states hoping to join the program. Fried noted the President's personal commitment to the issue and hoped for further flexibility from the Congress on bringing in new members. Restitution -------------- ¶10. (C) Noting the difficulties with Jewish property restitution in Latvia in a lunch with MFA leadership, Fried stressed that it was important to have one policy that applied equally to all people. When State Secretary Penke said the GOL was looking at a way to address Jewish communal property while setting aside heirless private property for now, Fried said that was understandable. FM Pabriks offered a blunt assessment of the state of play on the issue. The PM, he said, did not have strong opinions either way, but former PM Skele did. The PM's chief of staff, Maris Riekstins, follows Skele's lead on this issue. Pabriks acknowledged that the government did not handle the issue well when they took the heirless private property bill to parliament in November 2006. He said that PM's office and the Jewish community should form a committee to decide the way forward, especially on communal property. (Comment: This is rather disingenuous. Exactly such a committee agreed on the deal that parliament rejected in 2006 after pressure from Skele. The local community has made clear they are not interested in another committee absent some tangible display of commitment from the government first. End comment.) Bucharest Agenda -------------- ¶11. (C) All GOL officials with whom A/S Fried met expressed Latvia's strong support for granting MAP to Georgia at Bucharest. Fried reviewed the challenges on this within the Alliance and said it was essential that the Georgians get a positive message from the summit; otherwise they might do something stupid and the Russians something dangerous. Latvian officials said that they hoped to have the broadest enlargement possible, depending on performance. A/S Fried asked the Latvians to engage with Skopje to urge them to take a more constructive approach on the name issue. ¶12. (C) MOD State Secretary Rinkevics provided an extensive RIGA 00000865 003 OF 004 outline of the remainder of Latvia's agenda for Bucharest. He said leaders should reaffirm a commitment to transformation but rather than announce anything new, we should focus on making current projects work. Specifically, the NRF should be used rather than "left in the garage," the strategic airlift consortium should move ahead and HOSG should reaffirm a commitment to spend at least two percent of GDP on defense. ISAF had shown the need for better cooperation between various organizations, which led Rinkevics to muse that too often the same country will take one position in NATO and another in the EU, which he found especially frustrating. He also asked whether NATO should consider updating the strategic concept. On the last point, Fried responded that we too were thinking about the strategic concept, but it needed to be looked at in the context of opportunities with the new French leadership and was therefore a sensitive subject. Domestic Politics -------------- ¶13. (U) A/S Fried visited during a time of political turbulence in Latvia. Just prior to the visit PM Kalvitis had survived what were, in effect, two confidence votes in parliament. In all his meetings, Fried stressed that the USG does not take sides in Latvian domestic politics and that while we stood for good governance and against corruption, it was up to the people of Latvia to decide by whom and how they would be led. ¶14. (C) In a one-on-one meeting with Fried, PM Kalvitis expressed concern about Ambassador Bailey's October 16 anti-corruption speech. The PM felt that the tone of the speech was overly harsh and while he accepted that some of the criticism was true, he was especially upset that the Ambassador had, in his opinion, urged people to take to the streets in opposition to the government. Kalvitis acknowledged that his planned Oct. 31 - Nov. 1 visit to Washington came at an awkward time, but claimed the speech had prevented him for cancelling, saying that the Ambassador had backed him in to a corner and if he cancelled, he would be accused of mishandling the relationship with the United States. ¶15. (C) Upon arrival for a meeting with the President's Chief of Staff, Fried was invited to meet with President Zatlers. Looking at political events, the President said that it was clear that government needed to do a better job communicating with the people and explaining policies and decisions. He also raised concerns about the Ambassador's speech, saying that "instability on the streets needs to be avoided" and expressing concern that a crisis in government could allow ethnic-Russian based parties to come in to government. Zatlers termed this possibility "a disaster" saying that the loyalty of the ethnic Russian population to the state is unclear. He said that U.S. help was needed to project confidence and keep people calm. Using a Latvian proverb, the President said that Latvia could only carry two watermelons at a time and adding a third would cause everything to fall. In this context, the priority in Latvia needed to address economic issues, which requires internal and external confidence. The priority should be passing the budget and only then thinking about possible changes in the government. Fried responded that the President had an important role to play in times of political difficulty and needs to be "the voice of the nation." He added that the USG supports principles, not parties, and that we try to find a balance between defending values and interfering in domestic matters. Fried assured the President that he did not want Latvian domestic politics to be on the bilateral agenda. Afterwards, the President's Chief of Staff, Eduards Stiprais, added that the President was concerned that the Ambassador's speech could open the way to increased anti-Americanism in Latvia, pointing to an interview by a former minister that claimed that the U.S. Embassy often "squeezes (local politicians) like lemons." ¶16. (C) At the center of the domestic political debate has been the anti-corruption bureau (KNAB). Fried met with the leadership of the agency, including suspended director Loskutovs. Loskutovs provided a very professional brief on the history of the agency and its activities, stressing the strong cooperation with the United States. He noted that KNAB was working on a number of difficult cases included financing of political parties and corruption allegations against politically influential individuals. He did not at any point raise his own situation. Fried responded that we supported the work of the KNAB, but did not have a view on individual cases. He added that it was important to ensure that all cases were handled professionally and on the basis of the law, not politics, with which Loskutovs fully agreed. ¶17. (C) A/S Fried also met with outgoing FM Pabriks on his last day in the office. Pabriks, who resigned as foreign RIGA 00000865 004.2 OF 004 minister over the government's handling of the Loskutovs matter, spent most of the meeting talking about domestic politics. He said that the problem was that there was alienation of the public from the political leaders and that parties did not have the trust of average people. He said there is a new generation coming up in Latvia, not defined by age but by experience. Pabriks said he and PM Kalvitis were of the same age, but had very different outlooks because in the 1990's Pabriks was studying Denmark and Germany while Kalvitis was in politics here. Now the western-educated and more outward looking generation was ready to assume political power, but had to contend with the influence of the "three backseat drivers" in Latvian politics. He said that these individuals' control over key economic assets in Latvia held back the country's development. (Note: Although names were never used, it was clear he was referring to former PM Andris Skele, Ventspils mayor Aivars Lembergs, and Transport Minister Ainars Slesers. End note.) Pabriks said that when he as exploring the possibility of running for President earlier in the year, he was told by a businessman linked to the party that he needn't bother with the PM, but instead approach the two individuals who would "really make" the decision (Lembergs being in jail at that point). Pabriks alleged that he was often left on the outside of key party and political decisions because he "thought differently" (i.e. was more western in orientation),but couldn't be thrown out because he was so popular among the voters. He said that his resignation as FM had surprised the party bosses, who did not think he would take such a step. He said he would stay in People's Party for now, but made clear he was actively considering how long he would stay in the party. ¶18. (C) Pabriks said that the generation change in Latvia would bring about a new political alignment in Latvia, one in which ethnic issues would be less defining, but outlook and perspective would be determinative. He added, though, that he did not believe the President should begin the process to dismiss the parliament and call for new elections. Referring to the Ambassador's speech, Pabriks described it as "not so terrible," which he explained meant OK. He said he was uncomfortable with the instruction from the PM to call Secretary Rice and register Latvian concern in advance of the SIPDIS speech. He said that while the speech was "on the limits" at several points, it did not trigger instability or any marches. The Latvian people's frustration with government actions and inflation led to people marching. He recalled some protests in 1987, which the Soviets claimed were triggered by an American speech and he thought it unbecoming to make a similar accusation in this case. Press -------------- ¶19. (U) Assistant Secretary Fried,s visit was both well covered and well received by local Qs he gave extensive interviews to two major newspapers (the most important Latvian language daily Diena and a leading Russian language press outlet Business&Baltia). He also appeared on Latvia,s most popular television morning news program, the LNT channel,s 900 seconds. In his appearances A/S Fried emphasized U.S. support in the fight against corruption, Latvia,s crucial role in the NATO alliance and he extolled the virtues of Latvia,s participation in the missions in Afghanistan and Iraq. Responding to questions about the Ambassador,s recent speech, he repeatedly stated that it represented the views of the U.S. government and that corruption is an issue all governments need to address. Commenting on the Latvian-Russian border treaty, he said that it was a good step in the bilateral relations for both countries and did nothing to change the U.S. views on the continuity of the Latvian state. ¶20. (U) A/S Fried has cleared this cable. SELDOWITZ