Kalvitis in trouble: protests and few friends

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 RIGA 000778 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV LG SUBJECT: Kalvitis in trouble: protests and few friends Ref: RIGA 771 and previous ¶1. Summary: Approximately 3000 people participated in a peaceful, public protest in front of the Latvian Parliament (Saeima) to express their opposition to the current government of Prime Minister Aigars Kalvitis and the threatened dismissal of Latvia's anti-corruption chief, Aleksejs Loskutovs. The Saeima, expected by some to decide October 18 whether to dismiss Loskutovs, delayed consideration of the vote to allow a thorough investigation of the charges against him. This comes on the heels of the rejection by a member of a coalition party of the post of economics minister, following allegations of a deal to trade the ministerial post for the party's votes against Loskutovs. Weak coalition support for Kalvitis in public forums, coupled with allegations of inappropriate pressure on Saeima members to ensure the dismissal of Loskutovs leaves the Kalvitis government in a precarious state. Kalvitis has already vowed to step down if Loskutovs is not dismissed. FM Pabriks has publicly broken with the PM over the Loskutovs dismissal and Kalvitis is hurrying back from the EU council in Lisbon to deal with the situation. Latvian President Valdis Zatlers expressed his hope that parliamentarians would listen to the voice of the people when making their decision. End summary. ¶2. Following the cabinet's October 16 dismissal of anti-corruption agency (KNAB) chief Loskutovs (reftel),between 3000 and 5000 people gathered outside the Saiema in the rain October 18, it what is being called the largest march since the restoration of independence. Diena, a major daily newspaper, called for the demonstration to protest against the situation in Latvia and request Kalvitis' resignation. Many leading members of the media and intelligentsia, along with some influential business leaders joined in the call. The crowd demanded dissolution of the parliament, trial of People's Party founder and former PM Andris Skele, and included shouts of "Hands Off Loskutovs." Among the protesters were representatives of public organizations, public figures and actors. Organizers of the rally said that the government, in trying to oust Loskutovs, had overreached. ¶4. Kalvitis continued to stress that the decision to sack Loskutovs was taken on the merits, but found few backers. On October 17, Einars Cilinskis, candidate of coalition partner For Fatherland and Freedom (TB/LNNK),rejected the post after rumors circulated that he received it only after TB/LNNK agreed to support the dismissal of Loskutovs in the parliament. Additionally, coalition Visvaldis Lacis (noted for his lack of party discipline) complained to the Prosecutor's Office that his party leader informed him two weeks ago, while investigations were still ongiong, that there would be a parliamentary vote to dismiss Loskutovs and independent action by Lacis would not be tolerated. On a weekly news program October 17, Latvia's most influential, coalition ministers said that they voted for the dismissal only because they were on Kalvitis' team and they felt they had no choice. They stressed that their vote was only to send the decision to parliament and indicated at least some willingness to see Loskutovs continue in the job. On the same show, over 12,000 of the 13,000 viewers who called in to a poll, said they viewed the cabinet decision as "illegal and undemocratic." ¶5. In addition to the protests, October 18 brought divisions even within the PM's own party. Regional Development minister Stokenbergs, already critical of the party for some time, said that if he had been in the cabinet meeting (he was at a meeting in Spain),he would have opposed the decision to recommend Loskutovs' dismissal to Saeima. FM Pabriks, who had weakly defended the PM on tv the night before, now announced that he would appeal to the PM and members of their party to reverse the decision. Pabriks said he had "heard the voice of the people." ¶6. With the coalition unsure that it could achieve a majority in what would be a secret ballot, the Saeima decided to delay consideration of the dismissal of Loskutovs, saying further investigation is needed. The chair of the committee that will investigate this said that they would need "several weeks" to examine the matter fully. ¶7. President Zatlers urged the Saeima to "correct the mistakes" that had been made in the Loskutovs matter. He also welcomed the protest as appropriate actions in a democracy and expressed his hope that the governmet would heed the people's message. However, he warned that protests can only derive short-term results, and that, "Responsible participation of each Latvian citizen...is the only way to achieve positive long-term changes." ¶6. Kalvitis has stated that he has no plans to step down now, but is ready to resign if the Saeima does not vote to remove Loskutovs. "It's hard, but I am strong," stated Kalvitis. As a result of developments, he has canceled his participation in the informal EU council meeting in Lisbon and is returning to Latvia to deal with the situation here. ¶7. Comment: Fed up with what they perceive as a climate of corruption and frustrated by a worsening economic challenges, the people of Latvia are sending a strong message to the current government; the suspension of Loskutovs was neither legitimate nor RIGA 00000778 002 OF 002 democratic. With the government under fire and Kalvitis cancelling international trips to attempt damage control we can expect significant political turbulence in coming days. A number of factors mean that the four parties currently in coalition have a strong interest in staying together in government, even if they make significant changes to the cabinet. But with several of the parties, including the largest People's Party, having internal divisions, there are a multitude of possibilities. The coming days and possibly weeks will be very interesting in Latvian politics. SELDOWITZ