LATVIA/RUSSIA: BORDER TREATY SEEMINGLY DELAYED,

C O N F I D E N T I A L RIGA 000647 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/29/2012 TAGS: PREL PBTS PGOV RS LG SUBJECT: LATVIA/RUSSIA: BORDER TREATY SEEMINGLY DELAYED, WHAT ABOUT LAVROV VISIT? REF: RIGA 591 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Stuart M. Seldowitz. Reason: 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Earlier reports of a September 17 Lavrov trip to Riga to exchange instruments of ratification on the Latvian-Russian border treaty appear unlikely. Moscow has told the Latvians of challenges in the sequencing of events mean they would not be ready for action on the treaty by September 17. The Latvians appear comfortable that this was simply not fully thought through and believe the treaty will eventually be ratified. The Latvians are ready for Lavrov to visit as planned, but suspect that the Russians may cancel without ratification of the border treaty as a deliverable. The Latvians plan to invite DFM Titov to Riga if Lavrov does not come and strongly hope he would visit. The likely delay on the border treaty would remove the political difficultly for the GOL of bringing the treaty into to force before the Constitutional Court has ruled on the legal challenge to the accord. End summary. ¶2. (C) Despite earlier reports (reftel) that Russian FM Lavrv would visit Riga September 17 to exchange instruments of ratification for the Latvia-Russia border treaty, the Russians have indicated to the Latvians that they may not be ready by that date. MFA State Secretary Normans Penke told Charge August 28 that Russian DFM Titov had laid out the full process needed for ratification of the treaty, including votes in the State Duma and upper legislative house, signature by Putin, and publication in the register. The Latvians do not see how this process could be completed by September 17. Penke said they remained willing to host Lavrov on that date, but suspected he might not come without the ability to exchange instruments of ratification. Penke said if Lavrov cancelled, the Latvians would propose that Titov come to prepare a later Lavrov visit. ¶3. (C) Peteris Ustubs, foreign policy advisor to PM Kalvitis, told pol/econ chief on August 29 that it seemed as if the Russians proposed the Sep. 17 date without thinking through their own schedule. Not only was there not enough time before the 17th to take the necessary steps, but the upper house was not scheduled to return to session until September ¶19. Ustubs ascribed this a bureaucratic error in proposing the 17th rather than an actual snub by the Russians. He speculated, like Penke, that Lavrov would not come and half-jokingly suggested that the Russians would find a way to blame the Latvians. Ustubs thought a mid-October exchange of instruments was more likely. ¶4. (C) Comment: The Latvians are being calm on this, unlike their approach to earlier difficulties with the treaty. Two factors likely motivate this attitude. First, it really does seem to be a bureaucratic error and a failure by Moscow to think though their needed timeline. A similar thing happened in June when the Russians said they could deliver ratification by a certain date, even though the Duma was scheduled to be in recess and Putin out of the country. The fact that Titov reached out to explain the problem is viewed here positively. The second reason is that the likely delay means that the Constitutional Court's ruling on whether the treaty violates Latvia's constitution by effectively changing the borders from those that existed in 1922 will be handed down before the treaty enters into force. As we noted reftel, the Latvians were worried that exchange of instruments of ratification before the court rules could lead to political protests by opponents of the treaty. It is expected that the court will rule by the end of September and Latvian officials seem comfortable that the court will approve the treaty (although we have no way of knowing why they are so sanguine). SELDOWITZ