LATVIA IN 2007, KEEPING THE RELATIONSHIP STRONG

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RIGA 000056 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV KCRM ECON KPAO CVIS LG SUBJECT: LATVIA IN 2007, KEEPING THE RELATIONSHIP STRONG REF: 06 RIGA 792 Classified By: Ambassador Catherine Todd Bailey. Reason: 1.4 (D) ¶1. (C) Summary: As we begin 2007, Latvia is in a different place than last year. The NATO summit, which kept Riga on allies' lips for a year, is over and President Vike-Freiberga, who almost single-handedly put Latvia back on the world map, is leaving office in July. Yet, the US maintains important interests in Latvia, including: encouraging its active engagement as a NATO Ally, promoting a trans-Atlanticist voice in the EU, securing the freedom restored in 1991, supporting the spread of democracy in the region, and promoting the development of economic and commercial ties. The Latvians are generally headed on the right path but to keep them there we need to continue or even increase bilateral contacts, encourage their self-confidence to be active in international fora, and highlight for American companies the value of doing business here. End summary. ¶2. (C) 2006 was an impressive year for US - Latvian relations. President Bush visited for the second time in 18 months, this time to attend the successful NATO summit in Riga. In addition, Labor Secretary Chao, members of Congress and officials from State, DOD, and Treasury had successful visits to Latvia. Latvian President Vike-Freiberga addressed a joint session of Congress. The Latvian government took strong action to address deficiencies in the banking sector, albeit after we took action under the Patriot Act. Latvian troops continued to serve effectively in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as Kosovo. A pan-Baltic trade and investment conference brought over 60 US companies to Riga to explore doing business in the Baltics. With the summit over and Vike-Freiberga leaving office, we need to consider how to ensure the relationship continues to produce results for both countries and maintains a high international profile for Latvia. ¶3. (C) The Latvia - US relationship remains based on a shared commitment to core values of democracy, market economy, and personal liberty. As a NATO ally, Latvia is continuing to develop a modern, deployable military backed by a political system willing to commit blood and treasure to the war on terror. In 2006, Latvia transitioned to an all volunteer military. FMF funds are improving the military's capabilities -- during the NATO summit, Latvia had a complete regional air picture and the U.S. air security mission against renegade aircraft was run from a combat center that we helped fund. IMET programs are producing officers and NCO's who are effective leaders of a modern military and reinforcing our shared values. Latvia is committed to ISAF and will, during 2007, increase its commitment to that mission with uncaveated combat troops even as it draws down it troops in Iraq consistent with the changes in the Polish sector. Our mil-mil relationship is strong and with continued funding for FMF and IMET, we are on a good path in this area. ¶4. (C) Where we need Latvia to do more is on the political side. Within NATO, Latvia could be a strong voice for closer relations with Ukraine and Georgia, developing global partnerships, ensuring that NATO commanders have the troops they need for missions with unneeded meddling by capitals, and for preserving the vital Article V guarantee at the heart of the alliance. The same is true in the EU, where Latvia is a backer of the trans-Atlantic relationship, Turkish accession, action on Belarus, and improved EU relations with countries like Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine. In both organizations, Latvia can be a voice for realistic relationships with Russia. But too often, in both organizations, Latvia does not join the debate, fearing that the bigger states don't want to hear from them. We need to reassure them that we do value what they have to say, even in those instances when we don't agree. We need to build political common cause on issues, but early in the process, not waiting until ONE or two days before a meeting, when their positions are usually already set. Overcoming both their natural shyness and a lingering Soviet legacy that initiative and outspokenness is bad will be a challenge, but the results would be worth it. In order to get the Latvians more engaged in broader groupings, we need to keep up the high-level bilateral conversations in both Washington and Riga to encourage their efforts and urge more vocal engagement. ¶5. (U) We also need to reinforce the importance of the shared values at the heart of our relationship. Today's Latvian youth are more connected with Europe, especially through culture and education, than their predecessors. The significance of the US policy of non-recognition of the Soviet occupation diminishes over time. Paraphrasing ONE RIGA 00000056 002 OF 003 former diplomat, when the average Latvian thinks about foreign policy, eighty percent of their focus is on the EU, eighteen percent on Russia and two percent on the rest of the world, including the US. To preserve Latvia's supportive foreign policy orientation over the medium to long term, we need to continue our robust public diplomacy program and expand people to people contacts, especially among students. We should also move forward with establishment of a binational Fulbright commission to place a strong structure around that program. Latvians also place a high value on their culture and we need to find opportunities to weave cultural events into our PD activities. In February, we will screen Mississippi Burning as part of our programming for Black History Month and in May we will, in cooperation with the Latvian Culture Ministry, bring Broadway writer/producer Steven Schwarz to put on a Broadway exhibition. ¶6. (U) We will also continue to make aggressive use of our public diplomacy activities to advance the issue of tolerance for all people in Latvia. While some small progress is being made in relations between ethnic Russians and ethnic Latvians, mainly by a younger generation which doesn't remember the USSR, serious problems remain for racial minorities and gays and lesbians in Latvia. International pressure has helped keep the government focused on these issues and our outreach, combined with the EU, can help sow the seeds of change in society. ¶7. (C) No discussion of our public diplomacy would be complete without mentioning Latvia's desire to join the visa waiver program - the element of American policy that most interests average Latvians and generates the greatest amount of media attention. As the administration moves forward in developing its new strategy on VWP reform and we focus internally on interagency processes and Congressional discussions, we in the field will need to be armed with the latest guidance and American officials engaging with Latvians need to be prepared to hear about it. No matter how much we try to explain otherwise, Latvians will not see themselves as full partners of the US until they are admitted to the VWP. With Latvian officials claiming that the President's remarks in Tallinn mean they will be in by the end of the year, we need to manage optimistic expectations. ¶8. (C) Latvia has achieved remarkable things in the nearly 16 years since the restoration of independence, yet the political system remains fragile. In October, we highlighted ensuring continued progress on rule of law and the importance of the selection of the next president as the two issues most likely to be effected by Latvia's parliamentary elections (reftel). While neither was determinative in the election, we continue to believe that they are among the most important issues for the current parliament's four year term. It is too early to predict how the outcome of the presidential race, but it will be important for us to watch which figures emerge as strong candidates. On rule of law, initial indications are not good. In December, parliament approved the government's nominees for the Constitutional Court, Latvia's most powerful court, despite the fact that the legal affairs committee rejected them as unqualified. Parliament has also failed to meet a deadline it set to establish an office of Ombudsman to monitor human rights issues. While the Embassy will continue to make rule of law issues a core element its activities, we will need support from Washington to ensure the message is heard. Justice Alito's planned participation in a seminar this summer focused on ethics and transparency in the judiciary will be very valuable, but we also need to reinforce this in other ways. Latvians who meet with US officials and don't hear about the importance of this issue reportedly tell their colleagues back home that the Embassy places more emphasis on this issue than does Washington. ¶9. (C) Another worrying trend is the increasing (or perhaps restored) influence of Latvia's oligarchs. It is an open secret that the Greens and Farmers party, part of the SIPDIS governing coalition, will not take a position without consulting Mayor of Ventspils Aivars Lembergs, who remains under indictment for money laundering and abuse of office and against whom more criminal charges may be filed. Similarly, Andris Skele, founder of the leading People's Party, has been playing a key role behind the scenes -- most notably by scuttling an agreement on restitution of heirless and communal Holocaust era Jewish property after months of painstaking negotiations between the government and Jewish community. Skele could also face legal troubles this year for his involved in a failed scheme to bring digital TV to Latvia. We need to be prepared to register our clear disappointment when we see unelected individuals exercising undue influence on national policy or if we find that Latvia's "big fish" are receiving privileged treatment in the legal system. RIGA 00000056 003 OF 003 ¶10. (C) In 2006, Latvia continued its impressive growth rates of recent years, although inflation is an increasingly serious issue. Much of the growth, however, is based on speculation in real estate and will be difficult to sustain without significant investment in infrastructure and continued progress on transparency. 4.5 billion Euros in EU structural funds over seven years will help with the former, but the latter is more challenging. In addition to our other rule of law activities, our efforts on the banking sector and the port of Riga in 2006 underscored our commitment to help Latvia improve its climate for legitimate business. Now we need to help American companies see the progress that has been made, appreciate the value of Latvia's location and infrastructure links to Russia and elsewhere, and make use of the highly educated, multi-lingual workforce. The small size of Latvia's market means many companies don't see the value of doing business here, but we are trying to show them the value of working from here, in the Baltics and the wider area. In so doing, not only will we help American business, but we will underpin the political ties with economic ones and we will maintain the pressure for greater transparency that is essential for the operations of successful American companies. Our planned energy conference in June will be another vehicle for promoting Latvia to American businesses. ¶11. (U) We have had good success in integrating businesses into our policy and public diplomacy efforts, through public-private partnerships. The Humana Foundation has recently announced a long-term commitment to nursing education in Latvia. Nursing is ONE of the most critical shortfalls in the Latvain healthcare industry and our efforts to bring Humana here provide a project that has the potential to, over time, touch every resident of Latvia. In 2006, we sponsored a visit by Ronald McDonald Children's Charities and will work with them this year, in conjuction with local businesses and the American Chamber of Commerce, to open a chapter an eventually a Ronald McDonald House in Latvia. Children's issues overall are of growing concern to average Latvians and we will continue to look for new opportunities in this area. ¶12. (C) We believe that the steps we outlined here provide good building blocks for advancing the relationship and our key interests with Latvia in 2007. BAILEY