Latvia to hold July 7 referendum on security laws

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 RIGA 000344 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ASEC PREL LG SUBJECT: Latvia to hold July 7 referendum on security laws Ref: Riga 192 ¶1. Summary: Latvia's Central Election Commission (CEC) has announced that the necessary signatures in support of holding the referendum on amendments to national security laws were collected and the referendum will be held on 7 July 2007, the day President Vaira Vike-Freiberga's term of office expires. In early March, President Vaira Vike-Freiberga suspended amendments to the national security laws passed earlier by the Saeima (parliament) arguing that adoption of the amendments could result in abuse of power by the government and political forces over national security agencies (reftel). Although parliament has repealed the laws, the referendum process went forward as mandated by the constitution. While the opposition hopes to use the referendum to bring down the current government, there is no legal link between the two. End summary. ¶2. According to the CEC 214,966 citizens signed petitions to hold a referendum regarding amendments to national security laws (149,064 signatures were required),following the President's unprecedented use of her constitutional authority to delay implementation of the laws for two months. The CEC scheduled the referendum for July 7, the same day when the President's term in office expires. This is also the last day the referendum could have been held. CEC Chair Arnis Cimdars told us that the use of the maximum time permitted by law was needed to arrange for an off-cycle referendum like this. ¶3. In order to be valid, half as many people as participated in the Saeima elections last October must participate. Therefore, 453,730 voters must cast ballots. A simple majority is needed for the electorate to repeal the laws. ¶4. Although the referendum will be held as required, the legal consequences are minimal. Gunars Kusins, legal advisor to the Saeima, explained to us that Parliament had passed legislation, which the President has signed, which effectively repeals the laws in question. According to Kusnis, the legislation passed says that if the required number of signatures are not gathered for a referendum, or the necessary numbers of voters do not participate in it, or if a majority does not vote for repeal of the laws, then the laws return to the text that existed in December, before all the controversy began. Of course, if the referendum is valid and the majority votes for repeal, that will be the controlling action. In �00A;that situation, parliament would be effectively barred from readopting the same amendments. According to the Latvian constitution, the will of the people trumps the votes of their elected representatives. ¶5. Although the legislation effectively nullifies the significance of the referendum, the opposition has wanted to imbue the vote with political consequences. The New Era (JL) party was particularly active in calling people to participate in the signature drive and will be active in getting out the vote on July 7. New Era Chairman Krisjanis Karins told emboff that the referendum drive has reenergized his party, which has been through difficult times internally of late, and predicted that the referendum would succeed and people would send a message to the government with their vote. Another New Era member of parliament went further, saying the government would be "shamed" into resigning following the outcome of the referendum. The Russian-based opposition party Harmony Center has called for the government to step down over its mishandling of the security laws, but did not actively support the signature campaign, noting that Parliamentary action made it an unnecessary expenditure of funds. ¶6. Not surprisingly, the government has been low key in its response and Prime Minister Kalvitis (People's Party) has been clear that the vote will be only about the security laws and not a referendum on the governing coalition. ¶7. In interviews May 10 and 11, President Vike-Freiberga urged citizens to participate in the referendum and lamented that "political forces" have led to its scheduling on her last day in office, leaving her no time "to assess the results" and consider whether to dissolve parliament. ¶8. Comment: It is hard to imagine enough voters participating in the ballot. July is the most popular month of vacations and Latvians spend the weekends in their country homes. Additionally, the date of 7/7/07 is considered lucky and is overbooked for weddings. We believe that there is little chance that the required number of eligible voters (almost 2 times more than the number of people who participated in the signature collection drive over a four week period) would turn up for the referendum. Even if it was successful, the possibility that the ruling coalition would interpret a positive public vote as a call for resignation is extremely low. This is not a group moved by the argument of "shame." The opposition runs the risk, though, of having their own words used against them. An unsuccessful referendum would allow the ruling coalition to say that voters are satisfied with the coalition's work. The President's interviews last week suggest that while she might have hoped to use the referendum to force a dissolution of parliament (which would require another referendum), she will not do so, despite the hopes of many in the opposition, NGO RIGA 00000344 002 OF 002 community and the more liberal editorial pages. Waser