LATVIAN PARLIAMENT APPROVES SIGNING BORDER TREATY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RIGA 000100 SIPDIS SIPDIS NOFORN E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2017 TAGS: PREL PBTS PGOV RS LG SUBJECT: LATVIAN PARLIAMENT APPROVES SIGNING BORDER TREATY WITH RUSSIA; WILL RUSSIA SIGN? REF: A) RIGA 92 B) RIGA 53 Classified By: Ambassador Catherine Todd Bailey. Reason: 1.4 (D) ¶1. (C/NF) Summary: Latvia's parliament voted 69-26 on February 8 to authorize the government to sign the Latvia-Russia border treaty. The legislation should become effective on March 5 and the Latvians have proposed a signing ceremony in Moscow March 6-7. Following the February 5-6 visit to Latvia of Yevgeny Primakov, the Latvians received positive indications that Russia is willing to sign, although they will have to rescind their previous unilateral declaration that scuttled the planned signing in May 2005 and reaffirm the Helsinki Final Act's assertion on the finality of Europe's borders. The Latvians are realistic that they won't have 100% assurance of Russian plans until the ink is dry on the treaty. There remains the possibility of a challenge to the treaty in the Latvian Constitutional Court by opposition parties, but likely only after it is signed. End summary. ¶2. (U) The Saeima on February 8 voted 69-26 to approve legislation to authorize the government to sign the long-stalled Latvian-Russian border treaty. This was the second reading and as the bill was granted urgent status, it will go to President Vike-Freiberga for signature and promulgation. Under Latvia's constitution, the earliest date the law can take effect is March 5 and no delays are expected. On that date, the cabinet expects to authorize the Prime Minister to sign the treaty on behalf of the government. ¶3. (C) The Latvians have told Moscow that they would be ready to go there on March 6-7 to sign the treaty and that they would like to have both PM Kalvitis and President Vike-Freiberga sign the treaty. The Latvians requested that PM Fradkov and President Putin sign for Russia. ¶4. (C/NF) The border treaty was the main topic of conversation in meetings of Latvian government officials with former Russian PM and FM Yevgeny Primakov February 5-6. According to MFA U/S Edgars Skuja and the PM's foreign policy advisor Peteris Ustubs, Primakov initially said that Russia would not sign the treaty unless the authorizing legislation referred to the agreement in the Helsinki Final Act on no change of borders. The Latvians said it was too late to change the legislation, but agreed to include such language in the cabinet decision to sign the treaty. Primakov also said the unilateral declaration from 2005 that scuttled the last planned signing would need to be withdrawn, which the Latvians said was already in the plan. Ustubs said this would also be done at the March 5 cabinet meeting. Following Primakov's return to Russia, the Russian Embassy in Riga conveyed that the arrangements discussed were acceptable and said the Latvians should save the March 6-7 dates for signing, but did not yet specifically commit to sign. According to Skuja, Primakov also said that the idea of both Presidents and Prime Ministers signing would be acceptable to Moscow. All Latvian officials we talked to cautioned that with nearly a month to go before the signing, they would not be surprised if the Russians threw a spanner in the works and delayed the signing. ¶5. (C/NF) The Latvian government also has a problem at home. Opposition party New Era (center-right) has threatened to go to the Constitutional Court to challenge the treaty on the basis that it contravenes the constitution by changing Latvia's 1922 borders (ref b). To mount a challenge, New Era would need 20 members of parliament to sign a petition to the court. New Era controls 18 seats and presumably will strongly pressure all its members to sign. The other two signatures would have to come from members of the governing coalition who broke ranks with the government and voted against the treaty. It is unclear whether those individuals would take the political risk to sign such a petition. Former Justice Minister and New Era MP Solvita Aboltina told pol/econ chief privately that they would file their challenge only after the treaty was signed. But with public discussion of this possibility, the Latvians fear Russia could use the possibility of a court challenge to delay signature. ¶6. (C/NF) Comment: The Latvians have done their part, now the question is whether Russia will sign. In fairness, the Latvians got themselves to this point with their unilateral declaration in 2005. And while current signs from Moscow are good, Latvians are realistic in their dealings with Russia and know that they may go through several ups and downs before the text is actually signed. The possibility of a Constitutional Court challenge has the GOL most nervous because it could lead to a vicious circle. The Russians may refuse to sign the treaty until the Court rules on the case, but the Court may refuse to hear the case until the treaty is RIGA 00000100 002 OF 002 actually signed. The coalition can be expected to exert maximum pressure to ensure the needed two deputies do not break ranks, but if Moscow takes a hard line on this issue, it could stall the process. BAILEY