BURMA: RELEASED PRO-DEMOCRACY LEADERS STRATEGIZE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000093

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP AND IO; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: RELEASED PRO-DEMOCRACY LEADERS STRATEGIZE
AND TEST THE WATERS

REF: A. RANGOON 41


B. RANGOON 81

Classified By: P/E Chief Leslie Hayden for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Recently released leaders of the 88
Generation Students, Min Ko Naing and Ko Ko Gyi, appreciate
the United States' efforts to pass a UNSC resolution on Burma
and emphasize their group is not discouraged by China's and
Russia's vetoes. They believe the regime is gearing up for a
national referendum on the constitution, which it has
carefully crafted to ensure continued hold on power. The 88
Generation leaders are working to expand their organization
into Burma's regions and are buoyed by small signs of success
from their recent campaigns. Their movement will continue to
work to educate the Burmese people on human rights and
encourage more of the population to put aside their fear and
join in their efforts to bring democracy to Burma. End
summary.

The National Convention
--------------


2. (C) Pol/ Econ Chief met with recently released leaders of
the 88 Generation Students (88GS),Min Ko Naing and Ko Ko
Gyi. The leaders expressed their appreciation for U.S.
efforts to pass a resolution in the UNSC and stressed they
were not discouraged by its failure to pass. Min Ko Naing
emphasized that Burma's economic and social problems are so
serious that the military regime cannot solve them on its
own: Burma's leaders must enlist the support of Burma's
people and the international community. Only inclusive
dialogue with Burma's democratic opposition and ethnic
representatives can bring about a permanent and peaceful
solution to Burma's problems. Min Ko Naing believes the
National Convention (NC) in its current form cannot succeed.
The regime has excluded from its constitution drafting
process the very people who won the overwhelming support of
the population in the 1990 elections. A constitution that
does not have the support of the majority is not likely to
stand the test of time, Min Ko Naing stressed. He noted
that, as the National Convention winds up, ethnic cease-fire
groups are also becoming more dissatisfied and wondering what
exactly they gained from entering into the regime's
manipulated "seven-step roadmap to democracy."


3. (C) When asked if they were strong-armed to endorse the
National Convention process during their detention, Min Ko
Naing and Ko Ko Gyi said that they were not specifically
asked to endorse the NC, but were interrogated about their
views of the process and reminded that anyone who works
against the NC is subject to arrest and imprisonment under
the regime's laws. Elaborating on possible reasons for their
release (ref A),Min Ko Naing and Ko Ko Gyi speculated that a
combination of international pressure and the unexpected
success of the interim leaders' campaigns to release them had
caused disagreement among the top Generals, who had expected
88GS members to flee or go underground when their leaders
were detained, rather than initiating public campaigns
calling for their release. Min Ko Naing also felt the timing
of their detention and release was significant - they were
detained shortly before the beginning of the latest session
of the National Convention and released soon after it ended
to keep them from disrupting the session.


4. (C) Min Ko Naing and Ko Ko Gyi stressed they believe the
regime is beginning to focus on and organize an upcoming
constitutional referendum. The 88GS want pro-democracy
groups in Burma and the international community to begin to
think about how to respond if the referendum is not free and
fair, or if the regime's constitution is rejected and the
military refuses to honor the results, as happened in the
1990 election. Min Ko Naing said the 88 Generation Students
want to find a solution to Burma's political impasse that
will allow both the regime and the pro-democracy groups to
preserve their dignity.


RANGOON 00000093 002 OF 002


Testing the Waters
--------------


5. (C) 88 Generation leaders will attend Australian National
Day celebrations on January 26, in an effort to expand their
contacts among Rangoon's wider diplomatic community, outreach
that Embassy Rangoon has encouraged the students to pursue.
Additionally, several of their leaders, including Min Ko
Naing, Ko Ko Gyi, Phone Cho, Mya Aye, and Jimmy, will travel
to Taung Dwin Gyi in Magwe Division this weekend, ostensibly
to attend a member's wedding but also to reach out to and
organize human rights and pro-democracy activists in the
area. They informed Police Special Branch of their trip and
plan to organize similar trips in the future should this one
succeed.


6. (C) Ko Ko Gyi advised us to keep an eye on the Tuesday
prayer vigils for Aung San Suu Kyi at Shwe Dagon Pagoda (ref
B). Naw Ohn Hla, who leads the vigils, is determined to
proceed with them, while regime officials, led by Minister of
Information Kyaw Hsan and Rangoon Commander Brig-Gen Hla Htay
Win, are determined to stop them. Ko Ko Gyi claimed that
military officers may soon be brought to the pagoda to crack
down on the crowds and warned that the scene could turn
violent.

Small Successes
--------------


7. (C) The 88 Generation leaders are encouraged by groups of
ordinary citizens who are emboldened by their campaigns and
standing up for their rights in small ways. According to
Jimmy, in the village of Chauk (Magwe Division),a Myanmar
Electrical Power official collected seventy thousand Kyats
(about US$60) from over one hundred households, promising
them meter boxes that he never produced. The villagers
organized and threatened to complain to Than Shwe using the
88 Generation's "Open Hearts" letter campaign unless he
returned their money. Unexpectedly, the official reimbursed
the villagers. 88 Generation members have also recently
assisted garment workers in Rangoon to organize and
successfully protest unfair labor practices at their factory.


8. (C) Comment: Min Ko Naing and Ko Ko Gyi, both who have
spent over fifteen years in prison, emerged from their recent
detention even more focused than before. Min Ko Naing's
famous sense of humor is intact and both leaders appear
strong, steady, and ready to forge ahead. They will continue
to maintain their informal alliance with lower-level
officials in the NLD, although they prefer to keep a distance
from the elderly NLD "Uncles," who tend to disapprove of
their activism. The 88 Generation movement appears to be
gaining strength as its leaders emerge to fill the leadership
vacuum in the pro-democracy movement caused by Aung San Suu
Kyi's continued detention and the NLD's weak and inactive
leadership. End comment.
STOLTZ