THAIS PRESSURE KARENS TO TALK TO THE BURMESE

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 000008 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/03/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS BM SUBJECT: THAIS PRESSURE KARENS TO TALK TO THE BURMESE REF: A. 06 RANGOON 1828 ¶B. 06 RANGOON 1065 Classified By: POLOFF Dean Tidwell for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Karen National Liberation Army sources claim the Thai military is pressuring it to engage in cease-fire talks with the Burmese regime. The Karen say they will insist that the Burmese army pull back from areas where they have driven out Karen villagers and stop its human rights violations against Karen civilians. The Karen are not optimistic and believe fighting would break out if talks fail. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Even before former Karen National Union leader General Bo Mya passed away on December 24 (ref A),the Thai military began pressuring Brigadier General Htay Maung of the Karen National Liberation Army's (KNLA) 7th Brigade to head a delegation to engage the Burmese regime in peace talks. 7th Brigade sources claimed the Thais offered the Karen lucrative trade deals and permanent residence in Thailand if the KNLA agreed to a cease-fire with the Burmese Army. Htay Maung was uncertain why the Thais insisted that he head the delegation and not the Karen National Union's (KNU) General Secretary Pado Mahn Sha. ¶3. (C) Our source claims Htay Maung will make two demands of the Burmese Army: 1) It must withdraw its units from Karen areas occupied in the past year and allow Karen soldiers to protect local villagers there; and 2) it must stop human rights violations against innocent Karen civilians. Htay Maung reportedly is not optimistic the Burmese will accept his terms, but says he will not compromise on these points. ¶4. (C) If peace talks fail, Htay Maung believes renewed fighting is inevitable. Although KNLA forces are ready to defend themselves, KNLA sources report that after Thailand imposed martial law following the military coup, they have had difficulty procuring supplies and doubt the Thais would permit the Karen to replenish ammunition supplies if serious fighting breaks out. ¶5. (C) It is unclear if the Thais are also pressuring the Burmese Army to reach a settlement with the Karen. Lieutenant Colonel Myat Tun Oo, Burma's Military Security Affairs (MSA) liaison officer assigned to negotiate with the Karen, led the Burmese Army delegation to Bo Mya's funeral and likely met with Thai military counterparts. Karen sources in Rangoon report that Myat Tun Oo held talks with Htay Maung earlier in 2006 (ref B). ¶6. (C) COMMENT: The Thai military and Htay Maung have maintained regular contact for decades and a degree of trust exists between them. Htay Maung has already shown a predisposition to negotiate explaining why the Thai's prefer he take the lead in talks with the Burmese Army, rather than Pado Mahn Sha who may be more susceptible to pressure from various exile factions. Unless Htay Maung consults closely with KNU colleagues while he negotiates with the Burmese Army, the fragile unity between the KNU and the KNLA may be severely tested. END COMMENT. ¶7. (U) This cable has been coordinated with Embassy Bangkok. VILLAROSA