Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07RANGOON68
2007-01-18 09:45:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Rangoon
Cable title:
BURMA'S ILO INITIATIVE STALLS AFTER UNSC VOTE
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000068
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA, TREASURY FOR OASIA:AJEWELL
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2016
TAGS: ELAB PHUM PGOV BM
SUBJECT: BURMA'S ILO INITIATIVE STALLS AFTER UNSC VOTE
REF: A. RANGOON 061
B. RANGOON 022
C. RANGOON 007
D. 05 RANGOON 1588
RANGOON 00000068 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Econoff TLManlowe for Reason 1.4 (b,d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000068
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA, TREASURY FOR OASIA:AJEWELL
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2016
TAGS: ELAB PHUM PGOV BM
SUBJECT: BURMA'S ILO INITIATIVE STALLS AFTER UNSC VOTE
REF: A. RANGOON 061
B. RANGOON 022
C. RANGOON 007
D. 05 RANGOON 1588
RANGOON 00000068 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Econoff TLManlowe for Reason 1.4 (b,d)
1. (C) Summary: After recently making hurried, but
significant, progress on a mechanism to address forced labor
with ILO, the GOB fell silent in the wake of the unsuccessful
January 12 UN Security Council vote on the Burma resolution.
ILO Liaison Officer Richard Horsey attributes the GOB's
earlier eagerness to pressure from the recent ASEAN summit
and the Security Council vote. The next deadline that may
prompt GOB action is the March ILO Governing Board meeting,
where, Horsey says, members will be ready to take further
action, including referral to the International Court of
Justice. End summary.
2. (C) Richard Horsey, ILO Liaison Officer, told us on
January 17 that GOB representatives told him in December that
they wanted to engage the ILO again to develop an acceptable
mechanism to address forced labor complaints. Progress on
this issue had come to a halt with the GOB's refusal to
negotiate further with an ILO delegation in October (ref D).
The new approaches were not made by Labor Minister U Thaung,
because, Horsey believed, the senior leadership has lost
confidence in the Minister's ability to "make the ILO problem
go away," and have removed him as the lead interlocutor on
the issue. Horsey's recent meetings were held with the new
Deputy Minister, Aung Kyi, whom he characterized as smart,
no-nonsense, and down-to-earth, in sharp contrast to the
Minister.
3 (C) The ILO suggested sending a Burmese delegation to its
Geneva headquarters, but the GOB instead empowered the
Burmese Ambassador in Geneva to restart negotiations. Horsey
speculated that a combination of factors, including the
imminent UNSC vote, the ASEAN Summit, corresponding
international attention on Burma, and Senior General Than
Shwe's sudden absence (refs B, C) may have prompted the GOB's
sudden renewed interest in finalizing an agreement.
4. (C) Late in 2006, after a series of meetings, the Burmese
Ambassador in Geneva, Nyunt Maung Shein, gave verbal
agreement in principle on the text of an agreement, and
referred it back to Nay Pyi Taw for approval. The Ambassador
said he expected a positive response by January 15, and the
ILO was ready to host a signing ceremony in Geneva.
According to Horsey, local lawyers began to explore legal
changes necessary to implement the draft agreement.
5. (C) Horsey told us that had not heard from the Ministry of
Labor or its Geneva representative since January 12, the day
of the UNSCR vote (ref A). The GOB is in "gloat mode" now
over the vote, Horsey said, and he will wait a few days
before contacting officials for a response to see whether
there is further progress.
6. (C) If the GOB shows no credible progress soon, Horsey
said, ILO members are ready go "full steam ahead" with
follow-up actions during the late March 2007 Governing Board
Plenary Session, including consideration of a referral to the
International Court of Justice (ICJ). This move would send a
powerful signal because an ICJ advisory opinion is considered
legally binding and can be referred to the UN Security
Council. Sending the case to the ICJ would mark a turning
point in negotiations between the ILO and Burma, Horsey said,
and would make it clear that diplomatic initiatives will end.
According to Horsey, ILO lawyers have begun to review how
the ILO could submit the question to the Court, and, if so,
RANGOON 00000068 002.2 OF 002
which question would be most helpful to further progress on
forced labor in Burma.
7. (C) Comment: Burma's last minute efforts to make progress
with the ILO seem part of the overall regime strategy to
deflect international criticism before the UNSC vote.
Emboldened by China's and Russia's UNSC vetoes but with ILO
members clearly committed to further action in late March,
the regime will soon have to decide whether it is willing to
risk Burma again becoming the principal topic of discussion
before a major international organization. End Comment.
VILLAROSA
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR EAP/MLS; PACOM FOR FPA, TREASURY FOR OASIA:AJEWELL
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2016
TAGS: ELAB PHUM PGOV BM
SUBJECT: BURMA'S ILO INITIATIVE STALLS AFTER UNSC VOTE
REF: A. RANGOON 061
B. RANGOON 022
C. RANGOON 007
D. 05 RANGOON 1588
RANGOON 00000068 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Econoff TLManlowe for Reason 1.4 (b,d)
1. (C) Summary: After recently making hurried, but
significant, progress on a mechanism to address forced labor
with ILO, the GOB fell silent in the wake of the unsuccessful
January 12 UN Security Council vote on the Burma resolution.
ILO Liaison Officer Richard Horsey attributes the GOB's
earlier eagerness to pressure from the recent ASEAN summit
and the Security Council vote. The next deadline that may
prompt GOB action is the March ILO Governing Board meeting,
where, Horsey says, members will be ready to take further
action, including referral to the International Court of
Justice. End summary.
2. (C) Richard Horsey, ILO Liaison Officer, told us on
January 17 that GOB representatives told him in December that
they wanted to engage the ILO again to develop an acceptable
mechanism to address forced labor complaints. Progress on
this issue had come to a halt with the GOB's refusal to
negotiate further with an ILO delegation in October (ref D).
The new approaches were not made by Labor Minister U Thaung,
because, Horsey believed, the senior leadership has lost
confidence in the Minister's ability to "make the ILO problem
go away," and have removed him as the lead interlocutor on
the issue. Horsey's recent meetings were held with the new
Deputy Minister, Aung Kyi, whom he characterized as smart,
no-nonsense, and down-to-earth, in sharp contrast to the
Minister.
3 (C) The ILO suggested sending a Burmese delegation to its
Geneva headquarters, but the GOB instead empowered the
Burmese Ambassador in Geneva to restart negotiations. Horsey
speculated that a combination of factors, including the
imminent UNSC vote, the ASEAN Summit, corresponding
international attention on Burma, and Senior General Than
Shwe's sudden absence (refs B, C) may have prompted the GOB's
sudden renewed interest in finalizing an agreement.
4. (C) Late in 2006, after a series of meetings, the Burmese
Ambassador in Geneva, Nyunt Maung Shein, gave verbal
agreement in principle on the text of an agreement, and
referred it back to Nay Pyi Taw for approval. The Ambassador
said he expected a positive response by January 15, and the
ILO was ready to host a signing ceremony in Geneva.
According to Horsey, local lawyers began to explore legal
changes necessary to implement the draft agreement.
5. (C) Horsey told us that had not heard from the Ministry of
Labor or its Geneva representative since January 12, the day
of the UNSCR vote (ref A). The GOB is in "gloat mode" now
over the vote, Horsey said, and he will wait a few days
before contacting officials for a response to see whether
there is further progress.
6. (C) If the GOB shows no credible progress soon, Horsey
said, ILO members are ready go "full steam ahead" with
follow-up actions during the late March 2007 Governing Board
Plenary Session, including consideration of a referral to the
International Court of Justice (ICJ). This move would send a
powerful signal because an ICJ advisory opinion is considered
legally binding and can be referred to the UN Security
Council. Sending the case to the ICJ would mark a turning
point in negotiations between the ILO and Burma, Horsey said,
and would make it clear that diplomatic initiatives will end.
According to Horsey, ILO lawyers have begun to review how
the ILO could submit the question to the Court, and, if so,
RANGOON 00000068 002.2 OF 002
which question would be most helpful to further progress on
forced labor in Burma.
7. (C) Comment: Burma's last minute efforts to make progress
with the ILO seem part of the overall regime strategy to
deflect international criticism before the UNSC vote.
Emboldened by China's and Russia's UNSC vetoes but with ILO
members clearly committed to further action in late March,
the regime will soon have to decide whether it is willing to
risk Burma again becoming the principal topic of discussion
before a major international organization. End Comment.
VILLAROSA